Jun 30, 2012

Philippines - Loose cannons and stormy skies

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MANILA - Another United States nuclear-powered attack submarine has docked at Subic, Philippines, a signal to China that its provocations in the South China Sea will be challenged by more frequent demonstrations of American naval might.

The arrival of the USS Louisville comes just weeks after another US attack submarine, the USS North Carolina, made a port call at the same Philippine naval base. The high-profile dockings have been billed as part of the US's plan to host more rotating American naval forces in the Asia-Pacific region.

Though officials in Manila and Washington have described the visits as routine and a normal part of their strategic ties, they also coincide with the still unresolved standoff between China and the Philippines over a shoal in the hotly contested and potentially resource rich Spratly Islands.

The high seas showdown, which began on April 10 and recently ended without armed exchange, had posed significant risks to destabilizing regional peace and stability. At one point, China had deployed 33 non-military vessels in a lopsided face-off with two Philippine maritime ships.

In what Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario portrayed on Monday as a "breakthrough" in diplomatic talks, China pulled out its remaining 20 boats from the shoal to reciprocate the Philippine gesture of withdrawing its own vessels.

The Philippines refers to the shoal as Scarborough, or Bajo de Masinloc, while China calls it Huangyan Island. "There are no longer boats from either the Philippines or China inside the shoal's lagoon," del Rosario said.

While both countries cited typhoons as the reason for removing their naval assets, it's still possible they will redeploy them as soon as the weather improves given their continued intransigence in staking conflicting claims to the maritime territory.

Indeed, new tensions are already percolating. A day after del Rosario's conciliatory statement, a foreign ship identified initially by Manila officials as being registered in Hong Kong reportedly rammed a Philippine fishing boat near the shoal off the waters of Pangasinan province, north of Manila.

The incident sank a boat with eight Filipino fishermen on board, killing one and seriously injuring another. Survivors were rescued by passing Philippine vessels.

While the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is now probing the incident, it is suspected that the culprit was the Hong Kong-registered, 195-meter bulk carrier commercial ship MV Peach Mountain, which was returning to China from Indonesia while passing through Philippine-claimed waters.

"But this is just a suspect," PCG commandant Edmund Tan said. "We are still investigating and coordinating with our counterparts in the Hong Kong Maritime Rescue Coordinating Center and the Port State Control in Tokyo and Singapore."

In a show of restraint, Philippine President Benigno Aquino said his government was not about to accuse China of the sinking of the Philippine fishing boat without any basis. "We're gathering all necessary evidence, and we are not accusing anybody at this point in time," he told reporters.

Like Aquino, the Chinese Embassy in Manila was also in the dark about the details of the reported "hit-and-run" maritime incident. In a statement, Zhang Hue, the embassy spokesperson, said "such media reports remain to be verified."

"Upon seeing the stories, the Chinese Embassy immediately checked with the relevant authorities in China and was told that until now there have been no reports of vessel collision, accident or SOS requests," he said.

Verbal salvos

Foreign reports, however, quoted earlier Rear Admiral Yin Zhuo, director of China's People's Liberation Army Navy's (PLAN) Information Expert Committee, as ordering their ships to target "Filipino vessels that hang around" Scarborough shoal "and don't leave".

He was apparently reacting to Aquino's earlier statement that he would order the Philippine maritime ships back to the shoal if China would not pull out its vessels from the hotly contested territory.

The ranking Chinese military official said that Chinese naval troops should board and search Philippine government ships and private fishing vessels, similar to what Filipino Marines did to Chinese ships that strayed into the Philippine-claimed part of the Spratly Islands.

Yin also complained that the "Philippines has not yet returned 24 Chinese fishing boats it is holding", referring to vessels intercepted in Philippine territory by the Philippine Navy last October.

While imploring that Chinese troops "must try to maintain restraint, not force, not hurt people" when going after Philippine ships found in waters near the shoal, he said China's Navy would not hesitate to use deadly force against its enemies.

"Our Navy has the absolute ability and the absolute confidence to use arms to defend our country's sovereignty, territorial integrity and maritime rights," Yin said. "We're just waiting for the order."

Strained China-Philippine relations have recently been exacerbated by warmongering by both sides, raising the temperature of a situation that still threatens to ignite a shooting war and plunge the maritime region into military conflict.

The latest maritime incident, accidental or not, may be viewed as isolated and unrelated to the Spratlys controversy. But there are hawkish officials in Manila and Beijing who espouse diametrically contrasting positions and have undermined the spirit of friendship and harmony Aquino and his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, worked to forge last year. The latest salvo came from Tang Rui, spokesperson of China's Office of the Commissioner of the Minister of Foreign Affairs in Hong Kong.

In a letter on Wednesday to the Wall Street Journal, he wrote "China acquired sovereignty over Huangyan Island through discovery of and presence on the island before anyone else. Hundreds of years of jurisdiction has consolidated China's sovereignty over the island... On the contrary, the Philippine claim over the island has never been recognized by any other country."

The US, meanwhile, is closely watching how Manila and Beijing react to the latest ship-bumping incident. Washington has appealed continuously for a peaceful and diplomatic solution to the maritime conflict, which in part has driven a realignment of its strategic forces from the Middle East to Asia.

The US may be perceived as biased towards the Philippines due to their existing mutual defense treaty, seen in the recent dockings of its nuclear-powered submarines. However, if tensions break out into full-blown hostilities, it's still not clear that the US would be willing to sacrifice relations with Beijing to protect its smaller, historical ally.

Al Labita

Al Labita is a Manila-based journalist.



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