Last week’s Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore
organised by the International Institute of Strategic Studies offered an
opportunity for defence officials and experts from Asia-Pacific countries to
discuss a range of emerging and enduring security issues.
The
eleventh annual dialogue took place in a fluid geopolitical environment. The
question that loomed largest at the conference was whether relations between
the world’s two biggest powers, China and the United States, will be
cooperative or confrontational in the future – and its impact on the region’s
stability.
The
conference agenda included an interesting mix of issues. They included
America’s “pivot” to Asia, China’s growing power, the South China Sea dispute,
new forms of warfare, South Asia’s challenges, North Korea issue and the future
regional security architecture.
The
high-powered delegation from the US comprised Defence Secretary Leon Panetta
and Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Unlike last year,
when China sent its defence minister General Liang Guanglie, this time he did not
attend. This sparked speculation that his absence marked Beijing’s displeasure
over the conference’s inclusion of the South China Sea dispute.
Refuting
this, John Chipman, director general of the IISS, told the 350 conference
delegates that domestic priorities kept General Liang away – a reference to the
Communist Party’s upcoming leadership transition. The Chinese delegation was
led by Lt General Ren Haiqan, deputy commandant of the Peoples’ Liberation
Army’s (PLA) Academy of Military Science.
The security
summit met against the backdrop of America’s ongoing disengagement from the two
wars that preoccupied it in the past decade and shift of its strategic focus to
the Asia-Pacific region. The end of the military mission in Iraq and the
drawdown underway from Afghanistan marked what the Pentagon chief called a
“strategic turning point” earlier this year. This has enabled the US to
rebalance its diplomatic and military strategy towards Asia-Pacific, and assess
force structures, roles and inventories at a time of sharp budget cuts.
In a
major policy speech to the conference, Panetta spelled out what the new US
military strategy and strategic “pivot” meant. The reconfiguration of forces
will entail assigning 60 per cent of the US Navy’s assets to the Pacific Ocean
by 2020. This will be bolstered by expansion of US military exercises and
increased port visits across a wider area. “Make no mistake”, Panetta declared,
“the United States military is bringing enhanced capabilities to this vital
region”.
Panetta
reiterated US commitment to strengthen alliances with Japan, Thailand, South
Korea, the Philippines and Australia and expand “key” partnerships with India,
Indonesia and Singapore. Despite protestations to the contrary, these plans and
ongoing American efforts to woo and ‘rehabilitate’ Myanmar, represent a more
overt expression of an evolving US policy to contain China’s rise.
Conspicuously
missing from Panetta’s speech was any mention of Pakistan. Even when he spoke
of Afghanistan’s 2014 transition and the role that a number of Asia-Pacific
nations are playing, he gratuitously skipped Pakistan. This underscored
Washington’s present stance towards Islamabad and the depths to which bilateral
relations have sunk.
When
Panetta told the gathering that the strategic “pivot” was not aimed at
containing China’s growing power it was met with disbelief by many. Conceding
differences with China on several counts Panetta asserted that the only option
was a “mature relationship” with China, improvement in military-to-military
ties and communication with one another.
When a
questioner suggested that the enlarged American military footprint in the
region would heighten tensions, Panetta reiterated the US desire to work with China.
He also said Asian nations had to evolve ways to resolve their own disputes and
not expect the US to come and do this for them.
Another
questioner pointed to comments in the official Chinese media warning that US
militarism in the region would “endanger peace” with the announcement of the
new American defence strategy in January. Panetta again said China should not
be concerned about the new US military focus on Asia. Washington would endeavor
to keep the world’s most critical bilateral relationship on an even keel. This
reinforced an agreement between US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton and
State Councillor, Dai Bingguo during last month’s strategic dialogue to prevent
a clash, historically associated with a status quo and a fast-rising power.
In its
first official reaction to Panetta’s speech a Chinese foreign ministry
spokesman described the American decision to shift the bulk of its naval fleet
to the Pacific by 2020 as “untimely” and called on the US to play a
constructive role and respect China’s interests in the region.
In
discussions on the sidelines of the Shangri La conference, concerns were voiced
about the potential for instability in Sino-US ties as a result of enhanced
military deployments in the Pacific. But the response from Chinese delegates
was instructive. Their reaction was exceptionally calm and restrained,
conveying an extraordinary sense of national self-confidence.
Chinese
scholars seemed to take the new US military posture in their stride. The
current US strength in the region is already “heavy” so “we live with this
reality” said one non-official delegate. There will of course be challenges, he
said, but there are opportunities for cooperation among regional states, as
people want stability and don’t want to be forced to take sides.
Another
Chinese defence analyst told me that the US had always followed a two-track
policy of engagement and containment with China. So the new US military posture
offered no surprise. It was part of a familiar carrot and stick approach. China
would of course take the evolving situation seriously but it would adopt a
‘preventive’ and ‘defensive’ posture, he added.
Most
important, said another Chinese delegate, was that these developments would not
deflect China from focusing on its economic development and improving the lives
of its people. Countries in the Asia-Pacific region want peace, development and
cooperation, not another cold war. The priority therefore had to be on
stability and not an arms race that would set back the goal of economic
progress.
The
President of Indonesia, Dr Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in his keynote address,
voiced similar sentiments. He called for seizing the strategic opportunity to
build a lasting architecture of Asian security predicated on a “new geopolitics
of cooperation”. Acknowledging that strategic mistrust still persists in
Asia-Pacific he said the threat of military attack had given way to the danger
of eruptions of border clashes, naval standoffs and brinkmanship.
“Today
there is no war in Southeast Asia”. In contrast with the past ASEAN nations
were in charge of regional affairs. While rivalry and competition existed, a
win-win outcome was possible, driven in part by the emergence of nontraditional
threats that urged collaboration among states.
The Indian
Ocean, he said, must not become the site of a new rivalry. As for the major
powers, they had an obligation to construct peaceful and cooperative relations
because the ramifications extended much beyond them.
For
this scribe the highlight of many interesting interactions on the summit
sidelines waswith Chinese delegates from whom there were generous expressions
of China’s “enduringsupport” for Pakistan and empathy for the many challenges
it faces. A senior member of the Chinese delegation also had this counsel to
offer. “The best experience we can share with Pakistan is that it should choose
and follow its own, independent path to economicdevelopment and not be confused
or distracted by the views of outsiders”.
This
echoed what Chinese premier Wen Jiabao stressed to his Pakistani hosts during
his visit in December 2010: chart your own development path and stick to it
rather than rely on “external” prescriptions. Wise counsel, but never followed
by Pakistan’s aid-addicted ruling elite unwilling to change its mindset of
dependency – and take charge of the country’s destiny.
Dr
Maleeha Lodhi
The writer is special adviser to the Jang
Group/Geo and a former envoy to the US and the UK.
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