But
some exporters see dismal outlook
Latest export data have brightened up the
government's hope of achieving the 15% export growth target this year despite
concerns about the impact of the euro-zone crisis on the Thai economy.
Exports in May grew 7.7% year-on-year, helped by
rising production. The solid growth has raised hopes for the momentum carrying
on to the second half of the year.
Deputy Commerce Minister Poom Sarapol said exports
in May totalled US$20.93 billion (641.14 billion baht, up 10.68% in baht terms)
thanks to the rise in electronic products and automobiles.
They contracted 3.7% year-on-year in April.
In May, exports to the 15 original members of the
European Union rose by 6.8%, Japan by 5%, the United States by 10.9%, Asean by
13.4%, China by 22.3% and India by 16.5%.
However, economists are not certain about the
second-half performance.
Sompop Manarungsan, president of Panyapiwat
Institute of Technology, said China is the only hope for Thailand's
export-based economy and the mainland needs to resume its status as the supply
chain centre of Asia.
In any case, Thailand may not be able to achieve the
15% export growth target this year.
In order for that to happen, exports will have to
grow by 30% in the second half, he said.
China's two-way trade with Europe and the US was
worth $567 billion and $440 billion last year, so the debt crisis will leave a
serious dent in its exports.
China recorded export growth of 20.5% in 2011 while
its imports rose by 24%, making it a major factor in Thailand's export growth
last year of 17%.
If import growth in China remains on par with last
year, it is possible Thailand export growth may reach 10%, but 8% is more
likely due to the high base of $228 billion in 2011.
Local electrical appliances operators, are also not
as optimistic as the government.
The European financial crisis will affect purchasing
power and weaken the demand of electrical appliances over the next six months,
they claimed.
"When the European economy has problems, the
purchasing power of consumers in Thailand will be adversely affected in many
sectors," said Jakkrit Keeratichokchaikun, chief merchandising officer of Power
Mall.
Moreover, many Thais will cut their spending on
other products after buying a car under the first-time car buyer tax rebate
programme.
He said Power Mall's domestic sales, which rose by
6-7% in the first five months this year, were short of its growth target.
Pinyo Sanguansethakul, Sony Thai's senior director
for consumer sales division, echoed the concerns on the declining purchasing
power.
"We have to try hard to spur demand by
introducing products that fit customer demand in the second half," he
said.
As well, Sony will launch its own mobile phone brand
for the first time next month.
The move is made after Sony took over Sony-Ericsson
recently.
After having the new mobile phone business, the
overall sales of Sony Thai are expected to grow by 15-20% this year.
Industrial exports in May rose by almost 10% to
$12.87 billion year-on-year, especially automobiles and auto parts (up 83.5%),
pet food (29.3%), sports equipment and gaming equipment (21.8%), electrical
appliances (11.8%) and electronics (10.9%).
Exports of farm and agro-industrial products fell 5%
to $3.798 billion in May as rice dropped by 29% and rubber by 27.5%. Imports
during the month rose 18.2% to $22.67 billion due to rising capital goods
imports (40.69%), including machinery and parts (57.97%), and electrical
machinery and parts (65.61%).
Phusadee Arunmas & Pitsinee Jitpleecheep
Business & Investment Opportunities
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