The problem of Thaksin's return may finally
be resolved.
For a
piece of legislation designed to promote harmony, Thailand's reconciliation
bill has stirred up plenty of strife. Last week the opposition Democrat Party
resorted to brawls on the floor of parliament to block the law. On Friday,
royalist "yellow shirts," allies of the Democrats, prevented MPs from
entering the building, which led the speaker to adjourn the debate
indefinitely. Meanwhile, the pro-government "red shirts" have also
returned to the streets of Bangkok for what one leader called a "decisive
battle."
Radicals
on both sides are unhappy that the law would grant amnesty for a broad range of
political crimes from 2005-11, including the 2006 coup and its aftermath as
well as the 2010 red shirt protests that were violently suppressed by the army.
It would undo all the orders of the coup government, including the Assets
Scrutiny Committee that investigated ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
With his corruption conviction and two-year prison sentence thus voided, Mr.
Thaksin would be free to return home and claim $1.5 billion in confiscated
assets.
The
fight over Mr. Thaksin's return has been building since his sister Yingluck
Shinawatra won election as prime minister almost a year ago. As political
scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak wrote on these pages last month, she struck a
tacit deal with the military and the palace that allows her to rule as long as
she doesn't challenge the military's prerogatives and shows no leniency in the
prosecution of lese majeste offenses. The reconciliation bill appears to be an
extension of that deal between the elites on both sides.
This
conclusion is reinforced by the symbolism of having Gen. Sonthi Boonrataglin,
the army chief who led the 2006 coup, introduce the initial bill. Also, King
Bhumibol Adulyadej recently made a rare public appearance outside Bangkok.
Dressed in a military uniform, he was presented with a gift of land by Ms.
Yingluck. She paid a much-publicized visit to the head of the king's Privy
Council, Prem Tinsulanonda, in late April.
The
prime minister warns that Thailand faces a renewed "cycle of
violence" if reconciliation is not achieved. And wiping the slate clean
will suit politicians on both sides very well. Many of Mr. Thaksin's partisans
have been banned from politics for five-year periods, while Democrat
politicians and army generals face potential liability for the death of more
than 90 people during the May 2010 crackdown.
However,
true reconciliation is not something that can be legislated. It depends on the
truth being established, but that is not something that Thailand's political
establishment can accept.
The
Truth for Reconciliation Committee has limited power and has made little
headway in investigating the crimes of past governments. Two years after army
snipers were shooting protesters in the streets, the Department of Special
Investigation has found that state authorities were responsible for the deaths
of at least 25 people, while conservative estimates put the true figure at
three times that. At least the government is now paying the families of all the
dead $245,000 per victim, although in return they are required to give up all
lawsuits against officials.
The
lack of accountability enrages the red shirts, and many now feel betrayed by a
deal that trades away their demand for justice for the return of Mr. Thaksin.
His televised address to supporters on the second anniversary of the army's
crackdown struck many as patronizing and self-centered. "We must save
personal issues for later. We must think first of the whole," he
explained. "If there's reconciliation, then there's a chance for me to
come back and do good things for my brothers and sisters."
But
ultimately the red shirts may have no choice but to be patient. Once safely in
Thailand and with his most talented lieutenants back in politics, Mr. Thaksin
will be a formidable force again. Ms. Yingluck made a slew of ambitious
promises to improve the lot of the poor, but it's unlikely she can carry them
out without her brother's direct help.
On the
other side, the Democrat Party and the yellow shirts face a bleaker future.
Having outlived their usefulness, they have evidently been forsaken by their
backers in the military and the palace.
Having
failed to use populism to fight populism, these institutions are counting on
the judiciary and the unelected bodies strengthened by the military's 2007
constitution to rein in Mr. Thaksin. The Constitutional Court recently stopped the
parliament from debating constitutional amendments to loosen the grip of these
safeguards. Should they fail, there is always the threat of lese majeste
accusations and another military coup.
The
palace must regard this as an imperfect solution, but with the king ailing and
elderly, it had to reach an accommodation with Mr. Thaksin. The fact that the
deal is opposed by radicals on both sides suggests that it has a chance of
restoring balance to Thai politics, at least for a time.
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