The Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN) failure to issue a
communique at the end of the ministerial meeting hosted in Cambodia last week
shocked many.
Reports indicate the drafting
floundered on the issue of the South China Sea where the sovereignty of
different islets is disputed.
The Philippines wished to record
that the matter had been discussed whereas Cambodia, which currently chairs the
group, felt that any mention would compromise ASEAN neutrality. The claims in
the South China Sea were never going to be resolved by a statement, however
worded. As such, the quite unprecedented failure shows up not so much the
struggle to deal with a sensitive issue but, rather, what it may suggest are
more systemic concerns about divisions within ASEAN.
These come precisely at the wrong
time, when the group needs to show unity and resolve to create an ASEAN
Community by 2015. It also dents ASEAN's credibility as host for dialogues that
span not just its own region but a wider footprint, like the newly created East
Asia Summit.
THE CHINA FACTOR
Factors of division have been
emerging over time. These relate not just to the South China Sea, but more
broadly to the roles of the United States and China and such issues as the
Mekong River and Myanmar.
The Obama administration's
"pivot" to give more attention to Asia these last four years has been
evident and has largely been well received. But this comes after more than a
decade in which China has emerged as the best friend to many. Given the
economic dynamics, there is a sense that China will not go away but will grow
in importance. This is especially notable in Beijing's largesse to some in
ASEAN.
Take Cambodia, the host of the
failed meeting. Over the last decade, Beijing has provided billions for
infrastructure, including the building for the Kingdom's Council of Ministers.
In April, Chinese leader Hu Jintao made a four-day state visit and just a month
before the ASEAN Ministerial meeting, a senior Communist party leader visited
Phnom Penh with promises to "take strategic approaches to step up the
bilateral cooperation to new heights".
Given that the US market remains
its largest trade partner, Cambodia seems to be playing a risky game. Intended
or otherwise, the failure at the Phnom Penh meeting is seen as favouring China.
Other ASEAN members have come to
quite different positions. The Philippines has strengthened its US alliance as
Manila asserts its claims to areas in the South China Sea.
Vietnam has tilted towards
America and the recent visit by US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta to Hanoi
raises the possibility for arrangements to host an American military presence
at Cam Ranh Bay.
WHAT TO DO NOW
What can the small and medium
sized states in ASEAN do, given these great power dynamics?
There are things beyond their
control. ASEAN could breathe easier if Beijing and Washington recognise their
interdependence and that the region is big enough for them both. But if the
rhetoric of differences grows louder and it comes to push and shove, ASEAN will
be in an invidious position.
Other things are hard but
possible. For too long, individual countries' policies towards China and the US
have been little discussed. Dialogue could help each ASEAN member understand
the other's concerns and, from this, seek common positions. Agreeing upon
anchor points about the critical relationships with these giants would help
ASEAN maintain centrality.
Last comes what should be do-able
and indeed ought to have been done at this last meeting. This is to agree on a
form of words, a set phrase, about the South China Sea.
Critics will say that papering
over differences will not resolve the issue. Of course not, but there are other
uses. Think of papered up forms of words like the "one-China"
principle in relation to Taiwan. While this is open to varying interpretations,
it has helped frame a range of differences that is understood (but not
conceded) by each party.
Not least, if ASEAN can reach
such a form of words about the South China Sea, then its communiques need not
be held captive to a single issue. Noting but setting aside what is unresolved,
the group would then be able to go on to deal with the rest of its agenda,
where consensus is possible.
PERFECT NEUTRALITY IMPOSSIBLE
ASEAN has achieved centrality as
a kind of default position, and largely because great powers lack sufficient
trust amongst themselves. There are, however, still necessary conditions to be
of use in this role.
Perfect neutrality is impossible,
when some of its members are formal allies with one power, or receive large
amounts of high-profile aid from another. But open and healthy dialogue about
the fullest possible range of issues is critical for ASEAN-led dialogues to
remain relevant.
For this, each ASEAN member must
be willing to keep the group's interest as a whole in view, and not focus
solely on its bilateral ties with China or America. Otherwise ASEAN will not
only fail to be neutral, but be ineffective and indeed neutered.
Simon Tay
Simon Tay is chairman of the
Singapore Institute of International Affairs and teaches at the National
University of Singapore's Faculty of Law.
Business & Investment Opportunities
YourVietnamExpert is a division of Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd, Incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Healthcare and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN. We also propose Higher Education, as a bridge between educational structures and industries, by supporting international programmes. Many thanks for visiting www.yourvietnamexpert.com and/or contacting us at contact@yourvietnamexpert.com
No comments:
Post a Comment