US Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton travels to Cambodia next month for a major regional
conference hosted in Phnom Penh, where a host of diplomatic challenges awaits.
The Asean Regional Forum will focus on security in
Southeast Asia, but it will also host many of the world’s major players,
including North Korea, which said through Cambodian diplomatic channels it will
be willing to talk to the US bilaterally and to reopen moribund six-party
talks.
The contentious issue of the South China Sea will also
likely be on Clinton’s agenda, as she moves to further engagement in the
region.
Analysts say the issues of the South China Sea issue,
democracy and human rights all stand as obstacles to greater US influence in
Southeast Asia, which has keenly felt the growing political and economic
influence of China in recent years.
Cambodia, which is this year’s rotating head of Asean, is
especially friendly with China, which is a major benefactor of military and
economic aid.
Clinton’s visit to Cambodia for the Asean forum will
entail delicate diplomacy on a number of issues, said John Ciorciari, a public
policy professor at the University of Michigan.
Maritime security in the region is one of these, he said.
“The United States alone has the military power to serve
as a credible guarantor of freedom of navigation in East Asia, but if the US
government wields that stick incautiously, it will encourage hawks in China to
respond in kind,” he told VOA Khmer in a recent interview.
Human rights is another tricky issue in the region, he
said, even as the US improves its relations with Burma, Cambodia and Vietnam.
“Although engagement with those governments will
necessarily involve compromise, stronger economic and political ties give the
US more leverage to promote reform, both through official and unofficial
channels,” he said.
Asean’s 10 countries comprise a population of 600 million
people, creating much economic and political potential. Southeast Asian
countries have increasingly been on the foreign agenda of US President Barack
Obama, who spent part of his youth in Indonesia.
However, the variety of issues facing individual Asean
countries makes it hard to deal with as a single block, said Joshua
Kurlantzick, a fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations.
And with Cambodia, with its close ties to China, the head
of Asean this year, some diplomacy is made even harder.
“The problem in Asean is that you have some countries who
are more concerned about the South China Sea and others like Cambodia who are
less so,” he told VOA Khmer. “You do have some countries who are more concerned
about the Mekong, and others who are less, but my point is simply that [Prime
Minister] Hun Sen has a good relationship with China now, and so anything that
offends China, he is going to try to avoid.”
Many officials are reluctant to characterize US
engagement in the region as a counterbalance to the growing influence of China.
Cambodia’s ambassador to the US, Hem Heng, said the
region faces security challenges that need joint solutions, and not just from
Asia.
He called Clinton’s impending visit a good example of
this, especially as Asia faces the threat of nuclear weapons on the Korean
peninsula, with human rights issues in Burma and the lingering maritime
disputes between Asean member states and China over the South China Sea.
For its part, China has said it would prefer to negotiate
over the sea with individual countries, bilaterally, and that outside countries
should not be involved.
However, some analysts, like Sok Touch, dean of Khemarak
University, say Asean members don’t have the power to negotiate equally with
their juggernaut neighbor. Asean countries don’t have the armed forces of
Western powers, so they need powerful allies to stand by them, he said.
“Does Asean have a backbone of military forces?” he said.
“Asean’s military hides within its community.”
Ou Virak, head of the Cambodian Center for Human Rights,
said Asean is weak not only militarily, but in its human rights and democracy
work. That’s a challenge for the US, which tries to promote both in its own
foreign policy.
“If the US allows Cambodia to disrespect the principles
of human rights and still gives it assistance, military cooperation and other
cooperation, China will criticize the US,” he said. “So the US needs to be very
cautious in its stance over democracy and human rights.”
So far, US efforts on human rights have not been
compromised, he said.
Government spokesman Phay Siphan said human rights are
not a hurdle for diplomatic discussions. Cooperation between the US and China
is practical, he said.
Clinton will also be followed by a large delegation of US
businessmen seeking greater trade ties in Cambodia and the region.
“They really look forward to having a chance both to work
on business-to-business relationships, but also to participate in
government-to-government exchanges,” said Anthony Nelson, a spokesman for the
US Asean Business Council.
Hem Heng said the business delegation will meet in a
forum in Siem Reap. This could help boost trade within Cambodia and Asean,
which is moving toward greater economic integration, he said.
Sok Khemara
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