China's national oil company has startled the region by offering oil
blocks on Vietnam's claimed continental shelf and within its 200-mile exclusive
economic zone (EEZ) for bidding by foreign companies.
More significant, it did so on
the eve of the ASEAN Regional Forum meeting in Phnom Pen to be attended by U.S.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
The offering includes large parts
of blocks that Vietnam has already leased to major oil companies — America's
Exxon Mobil, Russia's Gazprom and India's ONGC.
These companies are likely to
appeal to their governments to support their rights to the concessions from
Vietnam. Of course Vietnam is furious and has asked international oil companies
not to bid for the Chinese-offered blocks.
Its leadership has vigorously
protested China's action and anti-China demonstrations have broken out in
Hanoi. Many countries and analysts were hoping that China was claiming only the
islands and reefs within this line and perhaps 200 mile EEZs and continental
shelves from some islands. But these hopes have now been dashed.
This action appears to confirm
that China claims everything within its nine-dashed historic line. Adding an
exclamation point, China sent "battle-ready" vessels to defend its
claim to Scarborough Shoal, where it has been embroiled in a dispute with the
Philippines for more than a month.
Beijing's next mission could well
be to bring a Chinese presence to Vietnam's continental shelf. While China may
be responding to provocative legal and political actions by Vietnam, its latest
move is "over the top."
Perhaps China is saying there is
no agreed boundary there and thus the area is in dispute. While China can make
arguments regarding "historic waters or historic rights," they would
be a reach, and likely to be ridiculed and rejected by politicians and analysts
alike. Worse, "historic waters" traditionally equates to internal
waters in which there is no "freedom of navigation."
This is of course a prime concern
of the United States — that China may one day try to enforce such a regime in
the South China Sea. The U.S. has consistently stated that it opposes the use
of force to settle the South China Sea disputes and that it recognizes only
claims from land and that are authorized by the 1982 U.N. Convention on the Law
of the Sea. Politically, this move by China plays right into the U.S.
"wheel house" and it is likely to gain considerable advantage with
the Association of Southeast Asian Nations because of it.
Absent a plausible
"explanation" or modification of its position by China, the situation
has reached a new level of concern. Apparently China has chosen not to heed the
sensitivities of ASEAN or U.S. admonishments to accept and abide by the
existing order and international law. Rather it apparently will proceed
unilaterally implementing and enforcing its historic claim and refusing
third-party adjudication, arbitration or conciliation. Clinton and her deputy for
East Asia, Kurt Campbell, have been publicly building up their coming foray
into Southeast Asia.
In Campbell's words,
"Washington plans to make its presence known in the region" during
the secretary's visit. Given the timing and the general U.S. position on the
South China Sea disputes, China's action is a "slap in the face."
Not only have its actions —
including establishing a new administrative headquarters for the South China
Sea called Sansha — offended Vietnam, they clearly violate the ASEAN-China
Declaration on Conduct in the South China Sea. Its provisions include a pledge
to refrain from unilateral action that complicates or escalates the disputes.
ASEAN, within itself, and with China, has been trying to negotiate a more
formal code of conduct.
Obviously this development will
make agreement on a binding code with a dispute settlement mechanism much more
difficult — if not impossible.
Indeed it would appear to set
China on a collision course with Vietnam as well as Western-based customary
international law — and thus politically with the U.S. — and much of ASEAN.
It is also likely to precipitate
a political and military lurch by some ASEAN members towards the U.S. Given the
serious implications, China's action begs several questions:
Why is China doing this at this
time?
Does it have something to do with
its leadership transition?
Is it a sign that a nationalist
military faction has gained more power?
Or has China's leadership decided
that the "die is cast" and it might as well "show its
hand"?
Whatever the motives, the move
has set the region on edge. China, of course, has the right — as many nations
including the U.S. before it — not only to rise — but to alter the regional and
international order in its favor. This recent action seems to be an indication
that this is precisely what it intends to do.
The U.S. "rebalancing"
toward Asia in foreign and defense policy had already rattled the region and
increased tension between the U.S. and China. China perceives the U.S. move as
an attempt to constrain its "rise."
Some ASEAN nations do not want to
have to choose between the two — individually or collectively. Indeed, China
and the U.S. are now locked in a competition for the hearts and minds of
Southeast Asians. While Vietnam and the Philippines welcome the U.S. policy
shift, others are less sanguine. Indeed, some are outright worried that
U.S.-China rivalry will dominate regional political affairs, increase
instability and erode ASEAN political and security centrality.
In a worst scenario from an ASEAN
perspective, the China-U.S. rivalry could feed upon and reinforce itself,
becoming a serious political conflict dominating the South China Sea issues,
splitting ASEAN on the issue and subordinating ASEAN "centrality" in
regional security matters.
This would leave the South China
Sea disputes to fester, and tension would wax and wane in action/reaction
dynamics. International oil companies would shy away and exploration would
remain in limbo. This would be truly unfortunate — not only for the people of
Southeast Asia but for peace and stability in the region
Indeed it would mean that China
and the U.S. are likely headed for a cultural, political and, perhaps
ultimately, military confrontation — with Southeast Asia once again in the
middle.
Mark J. Valencia is a maritime
policy analyst and senior associate at the Nautilus Institute.
MARK J. VALENCIA
Special to The Japan Times
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