Asean
must find a new bottle to put the Genie back.
Otherwise, the tension in this rich maritime
region will increase further leading to confrontation - a lose-lose situation
the region cannot afford to have. For the past three weeks, Asean has been kept
in a suspensing wire - swirling around showing its ugly underbelly. To manage
the crisis, all concerned parties must commit to the highest political will.
Some necessary steps…
First of all, the Asean chair must continue
its effort to issue the abortive joint communique as soon as possible because
many important decisions are being held up. For instance, the name of next
Asean secretary general, Le Luong Minh, must be submitted for a formal approval
from the Asean leaders in mid-November. Failure to do so, Asean could face a
new leadership crisis. The problematic paragraph on the South China Sea
obviously needs to be refined further in the language that is acceptable to all
Asean members. In this case, the Asean chair, Vietnam and the Philippines must
meet face to face and refresh their wordings to ensure a consensus text. The
statement on six-principle on the South China Sea worked out by Indonesia was
useful as well. It could be collaborated or appendixes to the main document.
The Asean foreign ministers must return to
their notes again so that the important deliberations could be reflected in
black and white. Asean interest must come first. This was not the first time
Asean got stuck with such the game of wordsmiths. In the past decades, Asean
has successfully played and overcome the wordings regarding conflicts between
the Palestine and Israel in the Middle East, India and Pakistan over the
Khashmire problem, North Korea and South Korea regarding the Korean Peninsula
and finally the last year conflict between Thailand and Cambodia over an Hindu
Temple. Whatever Asean decides on the final statement, major powers would
accept it and make necessary adjustments on their positions according.
Secondly, the non-claimant Asean members must
be more pro-active. At this moment, Indonesia stands out as the only member capable
of mediating intra-Asean quarrels, thanked to Foreign Minister Marty
Natalegawa's initiative and shuttle diplomacy. Under the Suharto government, it
would be difficult for Indonesia to perform such task. His predecessors such as
Prof Mochtar Kusumaadja and later on, Ali Alatas, Hassan Wirayuda - albeit
their seniority and diplomatic skills - were unable to take advantage of such a
competitive and stressful condition of today. As the grouping's most populous
member, Inevitably, Indonesia's increased Asean profile and intellectual
leadership would influence the future's body politics.
Thailand and Singapore used to be in the
similar positions, taking active roles. However, they are coping with pressing
domestic issues. Thailand, as the coordinating country for Asean-China
relations, needs to show to the Asean colleagues that Bangkok can use diplomacy
to forge Asean consensus especially at this critical juncture. At the moment,
the function of Thai foreign policy has been shaped and twisted to save Thaksin
Shinawatra's interest instead of the country's as a whole. Singapore has the
brain, but not the size as well as the political asset which Indonesia has
accumulated since the changeover in 1998.
Thirdly, all claimants need to agree on an
ideal model for cooperation knowing full well that the overlapping claims of
sovereignty over disputed islands would not be resolved in the foreseeable
future. It is imperative that the Asean claimants agreed to follow the
successful model of joint Thailand-Malaysia development over disputed areas in
the Gulf of Thailand since 1979. The 50-50 split of benefits has already worked
in this context. In 2008, based on the paramount leader Deng Xiaoping's mantra
of advocating joint development first and put aside the sovereignty issue,
China and the Philippines agreed to allow their state-owned oil companies to
conduct joint seismic survey of their disputed territorial waters. However,
Vietnam decided to join the bilateral agreement a few months later with support
from the Philippines and China. However, the tripartite arrangement did not
produce any desired result which could have been used as a template. If the
earlier Philippines-China collaboration proceeded as planned, the overall
landscape of present conflict would have been more conducive for peaceful
settlement.
Now, without a proper model to emulate,
nearly all conflicting parties are asserting their claims, establishing local
governments to exercise their sovereignty rights, utilising their long standing
historical claims with ancient affidavits such maps and through selective
applications of the UN Laws of the Sea. To further compounded the issue, in
Vietnam the dispute area is called the East Sea and in the Philippines, the
Western Philippines Sea. Deep down, they realized eventually they must soften
their positions to end the current stalemate. But it must be done in graceful
ways without losing too much face. In Phnom Penh, sad to say though, the chair
and key claimants have placed themselves in a corner by virtue of their
arguments and nationalistic stands.
Fourthly, Asean should continue to discuss
the South China Sea as they have done in the past among themselves and with
China, under the Asean plus one formula. Other Asean-lead forums such as the
Asean Regional Forum, East Asia Summit and Asean Defence Ministerial Meeting
Plus are complimentary to the ministerial one. If Asean decides to duck the
issue, fearing China's wraths, it would dent the grouping's creditability
further. In the upcoming East Asia Summit, leaders can raise any issue of their
concerns, with or without consent of Asean. China and Asean need to look back
how they broke through the impasse in April 1995 when their relations were at
all time low over disputes in Mischief Reefs.
Since all claimants and dialogue partners
have expressed strong support of the ongoing process of competing regional code
of conducts (COC) on the South China Sea, they should allow the Asean-China
senior officials to work on the COC without hindrance. Beijing's early willingness
to negotiate the COC with Asean must be restored. To show goodwill, China also
must make clear the guidelines for Asean to use US$500 million of maritime
cooperation fund set up last year, especially regarding projects of joint
developments and researches.
Finally, to stay and play with the major
league, Asean must be prepared. One of the strategies is to increase the
capacity of Asean Secretariat. At the moment, it is relatively underfunded and
weak, especially on political/security and social/cultural pillars. Asean
performs well only over the economic cooperation and integration. Truth be
told, while its leaders expressed support to the current effort by Asean
Secretary General Dr. Surin Pitsuwan to strengthen Asean Secretariat and other
organs, they have never agreed exactly on how the stronger Asean Secretariat
would be able to carry out its mandates. Senior officials and the Jakarta-based
envoys from Asean speak and act on behalf of their countries. Surin and his
staff is not. His tenure is ending in December and Le Luong Minh will take over
from January 2013.
Without any clear direction, Asean much
vaulted centrality and neutrality could be challenged and subsequently eroded
as the dialogue partners are demanding "equal partnership" in all
forums beyond their diplomatic pleasantries. The last-minute decision of
France, US and UK to postpone the signing of Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapons
Free Zone was indicative of the growing interconnectedness between Asean and
major powers and the latter's ability to influence Asean process. Only China
and Russia stand ready to sign. According to the article 11, item 9 of the
Asean Charter, it is succinctly stated that each Asean member "undertakes
to respect the exclusive Asean character of the responsibilities of the secretary-general
and the staff, and not to seek to influence them in the discharge of the
responsibilities." Thanked to Surin's predecessor, Ong Keng Yong, who
introduced this clause knowing full well the overall Asean's psyche and
backbone. Until now, none of the Asean leaders, who signed the charter, have
done that.
Kavi Chongkittavorn
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