Thailand’s political calm hangs in the balance as Prime Minister
Yingluck Shinawatra’s ruling party decides whether to defy the nation’s highest
court and proceed with an overhaul of a military-influenced constitution.
The Constitutional Court on July
13 called for a referendum before rewriting the charter ratified after a 2006
coup that ousted former leader Thaksin Shinawatra,
Yingluck’s brother. Lawmakers “must take responsibility for their next move” if
they proceed with a vote to redraft the constitution, court spokesman Pimon
Thammaphitakphong told reporters.
Moving forward without a
nationwide vote could “invite more explosive protests from the other side,”
Somjai Phagaphasvivat, a political science lecturer at Thammasat University in
Bangkok, said by phone. “Tensions remain high and this will be the situation
for months and years to come.”
The battle over changing the
constitution threatens political stability in Southeast Asia’s
second-biggest economy, where street protests since 2006 have killed more than
100 people and led to takeovers of the airports and central business district.
Thaksin’s allies want to reduce the power of appointed bodies they say are
undermining elected governments to serve the interest of royalists who backed
the coup.
While the eight judges ruled
unanimously that a proposal to create a 99-member assembly to rewrite the
constitution didn’t breach Article 68, which restricts attempts “to overthrow
the democratic regime of government with the King as Head of State,” they said
a complete overhaul would require the consent of Thailand’s 67 million people.
Referendum Fight
The 2007 constitution “came from
a referendum,” Judge Nurak Mapraneet said in the ruling. “So the public should
hold another referendum to decide whether they want a new draft. If the
parliament wants to amend it, it can do by each article.”
The referendum requirement
appears nowhere in Article 291 of the current charter, which grants parliament
the right to change the constitution. Yingluck’s party had proposed changing
that article to allow for a complete constitution rewrite that would need to be
approved in a referendum after it was drafted.
The court’s insistence that a
nationwide vote is required before rewriting the charter amounts to a threat
against the government and parliament because the judiciary is asserting powers
that aren’t granted in the constitution, according to Kanin Boonsuwan, a law
lecturer at Chulalongkorn
University who submitted testimony in favor of the amendment.
“If the government and parliament
yield to this threat, it means this country is not democratic,” Kanin said.
“Next time there is no need to have an election. Just let the court be the
ruling party.”
Court Powers
The court’s determination that it
has the authority to accept petitions directly from the public instead of
solely from the Attorney-General, as occurred in this case, also represents an
expansion of the court’s powers, Kanin said.
Prosecutors declined to forward
the petitions to the Constitutional Court, saying last month that the amendment
process is valid. A committee formed by the previous administration warned the
court last month to undertake a “strict interpretation” of the law to maintain
public confidence in the judiciary and help prevent violence.
Yingluck campaigned on changing
the constitution to make leaders more accountable to the public before her
party’s majority win in elections a year ago and included plans for a drafting
assembly in a policy statement. Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung called
the ruling “fair” and said Yingluck would decide how to proceed with changing
the constitution.
Lawsuits, Protests
The opposition Democrat party
views the court’s call for a referendum as binding, according to spokesman
Chavanond Intarakomalyasut. He warned that proceeding with a vote to rewrite
the constitution could lead to more lawsuits and urged the ruling party to
focus more on solving economic problems.
“If they go ahead with it,
there’s going to be a problem, whether it’s a protest or people filing charges
against them again,” Chavanond said by phone. “We don’t want to see that. Why
doesn’t the ruling Pheu Thai party just follow the court’s direction and not
stir any conflict?”
Investors initially cheered the
court ruling because it appeared to avert an immediate showdown.
Thailand’s SET Index (SET) gained 1.4 percent to 1,210.29 on
July 13, the highest close since May 8.
The baht strengthened 0.5 percent
to 31.66 per dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“The court ruling has helped calm
sentiment after fears of violence earlier,” Banthoon Lamsam, chief executive
officer and president of Kasikornbank Pcl (KBANK), Thailand’s second biggest by
market value, told reporters. “Still, the unclear rules and drafting of new
rules remain key questions for Thai society.”
Post-Coup Constitution
In the coup against Thaksin, the
country’s 10th power seizure since absolute monarchy ended in 1932, the
generals discarded the 1997 constitution that mandated a fully elected
parliament. A military-appointed assembly wrote a new version that granted
generals amnesty for the coup, made it easier to dissolve political parties,
and gave judges a role picking members of a half-appointed Senate and other
bodies overseeing elected officials. That passed in a nationwide vote in late
2007.
The increased responsibilities
for judges followed a speech by King Bhumibol Adulyadej five months before the
coup in which he called on them to resolve a pending constitutional crisis.
Since then, courts have voided an election won by Thaksin’s party, disbanded
two parties linked to him, disqualified about 200 of his allies, sentenced him
to jail and seized 46 billion baht ($1.45 billion) of his wealth.
King Bhumibol, 84, took the
throne in 1946 and serves as head of state. Insulting him can lead to a 15-year
jail sentence. The monarch appoints all the country’s judges, according to the
constitution.
Thaksin Amnesty
Thaksin has lived away from
Thailand since fleeing a 2008 jail sentence stemming from charges brought by a
military- appointed panel after the coup. His supporters have denounced the
judiciary as biased against the former leader and his allies, and several bills
proposed in parliament earlier this year called for a broad amnesty for
political crimes that would include the self-exiled billionaire.
The Constitutional Court’s
intervention in parliamentary affairs sets “a very dangerous precedent” that
could lead to a “more explosive crisis” in the future, according to Chris
Baker, a Bangkok-based political analyst and historian who has co-authored
several books on Thailand.
“This whole incident has probably
shown that Thaksin cannot return too soon,” he said. “This is just a small step
in a long process.”
Daniel Ten Kate
Business & Investment Opportunities
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