The East Asia Summit (EAS), an ASEAN initiative, is still in its
infancy, but the admission of the United States and Russia last year raises
hopes that countries in the region are seriously looking into all the issues,
including peace and security, which challenge the region.
A more relevant point of
reference or model for the EAS to emulate is the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), rather than the Concert of Vienna or the
bilateral talks that took place between the United States and the Soviet Union
during the Cold War.
Granted, East Asia has many
security challenges, some of which are only coming to the surface now as China
begins to flex its muscles, but this is no reason to throw in the towel and let
the big boys take care of the problems.
The solid foundation of ASEAN’s
centrality is the unity of its 10 members. Since ASEAN’s durable cohesion is
the essence to maintaining a secure geopolitical environment for the
archipelagic Republic of Indonesia, it is Jakarta’s task to cajole and push
fellow ASEAN members to solve or manage their bilateral problems amicably,
including the remaining problems of overlapping territorial claims.
Jakarta should keep hammering the
message to other members that their national interests will be better served by
upholding ASEAN loyalty and adhering to the accepted ASEAN way of solving
problems amicably.
ASEAN should not to be swayed by
the promised assistance of outside powers.
The recent tension in the South
China Sea, where China and a number of Southeast Asian countries have
overlapping territorial claims, is an Achilles Heel for ASEAN, with Cambodia
allying itself with China, while the Philippines and Vietnam are turning to the
United States.
Having read White’s book and
analysis, it is all the more important for the EAS, in which ASEAN centrality
has been widely accepted, to succeed and to keep Asia from becoming polarized
into two contesting camps for the good of the region and its people and keep
the Asian Century on the right track.
Ways must be found — and
Indonesia should play a leading role in this effort — to enhance the efficacy
of the EAS. When the two great powers, each from opposite sides of the Pacific
and with their contrasting historical experiences, engage in the painful
give-and-take process toward a fine-tuned power-sharing agreement that
unavoidably involves the need for face saving, an effective EAS could provide
the ideal setting to manage egos, perceived losses of prestige and the
resulting domestic backlash.
It would be asking too much of
the two great powers’ rationality to expect that they would come up with an
agreed formula for power sharing. After all, China’s determination to overcome
and erase the lingering traces of a “century of national humiliation” and
America’s faithful adherence to its concept of “Manifest Destiny” could entice
them into a collision course.
The EAS provides the ideal
setting for the two great powers to hammer out a power-sharing deal, while the
rest of the nations in attendance can act as more than mere onlookers.
A unified ASEAN, with a combined
GDP of US$2 trillion and the strategic sea lanes of communication, poses a
potentially large source of nuisance and will not automatically submit itself
to any agreed-upon power-sharing formula that does not take into account its
interests.
White describes Taiwan as a major
potential flashpoint, arguing that how China and America deal with this issue
and how each sees the “status of China” will be a critical index of their
respective places in Asia’s power structure.
Pointing out that the US will
bear the high cost of waging war with China to preserve Taiwan, he also argues
that America can no longer prevent China from seizing Taiwan by force.
He portends that “Taiwan has for
a long time seemed to pose the greatest risk, and it remains quite possible
that developments in the cross strait relationship could induce a crisis with
very serious consequences.”
White’s alarming projection
overlooks the dramatic improvements currently taking place in the cross strait
relationship. We think that China is no longer willing to pay the high cost of
seizing Taiwan by force where non-force approaches have started bearing fruit.
The historic Economic Cooperation
Framework Agreement (ECFA) signed by Beijing and Taipei in 2010 covers an array
of activities, such as direct flight and shipping connections, people’s
movements, customs and quarantine procedures, and joint police operations to
prevent smuggling. The ECFA is constantly being updated with new attachments to
the original 16 agreements, such as the recent deal on investment protection.
The number of people crossing the
straits by sea between China’s Fujian province and Taiwan has tripled to more
than 90,000 in the first seven months of 2012 since the launching of new
express passenger liner at the start of the year, according to a recent report
in the China Daily.
When an Indonesian Council of
World Affairs (ICWA) delegation visited Taipei in June, they were informed by
the Strait Exchange Foundation that 1.8 million people from the mainland had
visited Taiwan in 2011.
The chairman of this
semi-official agency, Pin Kung-Chiang, a distinguished elderly gentleman who
enjoys de facto cabinet member status, indirectly told the delegation that he was
in regular contact with important members of the Politburo’s Standing Committee
in Beijing.
Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou is
upbeat about the prospects of stronger ties. In his inaugural speech in May at
the start of his second, and last, four-year term, he said the ECFA had made
cross strait rapprochement a reality by improving relations, reducing tensions
and bringing peace and prosperity. He added: “In the next four years, the two
sides of the straits have to open up new areas of cooperation and continue
working to consolidate peace, expand prosperity and deepen mutual trust.”
If the Taiwan problem is losing
its sexiness as a flashpoint, the recent confrontations between Japan’s naval
patrol boats and Chinese armed fishery vessels in Northeast Asia over the
Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, and between Chinese and the Philippines government
ships in the South China Sea over the Scarborough/Huayang shoal have produced
two new emerging flashpoints.
These two new flashpoints are
potentially quite dangerous. Japan and the Philippines are formal allies of the
United States, which could be sucked into a contentious crisis with China.
Although an important read for
Asian policymakers, White wrote The China Choice with American readers very
much in mind. The book’s conclusion and recommendations are all directed at
Washington.
White even wrote the last chapter
of the book as a draft speech for the American president to deliver to his
fellow Americans, in recognizing and accommodating China’s hegemonic ambitions,
but without completely giving up America’s primacy in Asia.
Of course, come the US
presidential election in November, things may change completely. In the event
of a Republican victory for challenger Mitt Romney, the new administration is
unlikely to go for White’s carefully crafted third option of accommodating
China.
In a recent New York Times
opinion article, globalist Roger Cohen quoted Romney as saying about his
foreign policy: “I do not view America as just one more point on the strategic
map, one more power to be balanced. I believe our country is the greatest force
for good the world has ever known.”
One may be tempted to ask in
which century is Romney living — it certainly isn’t the Asian Century. If
Romney does win in November, White will have to write another book, as the
China Choice will have been made for him with America choosing to maintain its
primacy at all costs.
Sabam Siagian and Endy Bayuni
The writers are senior editors of The Jakarta Post and former
editors-in-chief of the newspaper. They are Class 1979 and Class 2004 of the
Nieman Fellowship program for journalists at Harvard University. Siagian was
formerly Indonesia’s ambassador to Australia.
Business & Investment Opportunities
YourVietnamExpert is a division of Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd, Incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Healthcare and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN. We also propose Higher Education, as a bridge between educational structures and industries, by supporting international programmes. Many thanks for visiting www.yourvietnamexpert.com and/or contacting us at contact@yourvietnamexpert.com
No comments:
Post a Comment