A shake-up of Myanmar's quasi-civilian government is in the pipeline,
one that could highlight underlying tensions between reformists and hardliners
in President Thein Sein's delicately balanced administration.
Extensive cabinet changes and an
overhaul of the civil service are supposedly imminent, as the president seeks
to reform and modernize the country's outdated government machinery.
"Everyone in Naypyidaw is on
tender-hooks," said a recent foreign visitor to the secluded new capital
city. "Most ministers are nervous, not knowing if they'll still be in
their offices in a month's time." The bureaucrats are just as anxious, he
added. "No one knows when the guillotine will fall, and on whom."
The resignation of hardliner vice
president Tin Aung Myint Oo three months ago signaled the beginning of the
shake-up. The chances of an early odds-on favorite to replace him, the current
mayor of Yangon and former intelligence chief Myint Swe, are now in doubt. Soon
after his nomination was announced in early July, it was withdrawn because of
citizenship queries about the nationality of his daughter, who is married to an
Australian and is a resident in her husband's country.
"Citizenship is critical,
especially since the recent problems in Arakan [Rakhine State] erupted; no
government can take it lightly," said Aung Naing Oo, an independent
analyst with the Vahu Development Institute, referring to clashes between
Buddhist and Muslim residents, with the latter considered by many in Myanmar
not to belong to the country. The citizenship issue could affect as many as two
million people inside Myanmar who are stateless or have foreign resident
certificates, he added.
That was over a month ago and the
constitutional committee investigating the Rakhine State disturbances, which
forced many to flee to neighboring Bangladesh, has yet to announce its
findings.
In the meantime, several
alternative candidates have been mooted, though none as yet have been
nominated.
"This clearly indicates a
struggle within the triumvirate - between President Thein Sein, the lower house
Speaker Shwe Mann and the army chief Min Aung Hlaing - over the
succession," said a Myanmar analyst with close contacts to the regime.
For most analysts and diplomats,
the decision whether to rule out Myint Swe as vice president is more likely to
hinge on the implications it would have for general elections in 2015 and
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's potential candidacy for the presidency.
"If they decide that Myint
Swe is ineligible because of his daughter's Australian citizenship, then it is
a clear precedent that Aung San Suu Kyi would also be ineligible next time
round," said a Yangon-based Western diplomat, referring to Suu Kyi's
marriage to a now-deceased British national. "If he's accepted, it is then
a clear signal that she also would be considered as a presidential candidate in
the future."
The episode has highlighted
confusion over the 2008 constitution and the muddled political process that
former military dictator Senior General Than Shwe has left as his legacy. Tin
Aung Myint Oo tendered his resignation to Thein Sein on medical grounds in May.
Under the constitution, the president
must inform the parliament within seven days, or, as the parliament was in
recess, recall it within 21 days to make the announcement and start the process
of electing a new vice president.
Thein Sein, for unknown reasons,
chose neither of these options and instead opted to give the vice president
sick leave. This was later extended to two months retrospectively,
coincidentally ending on July 3, the eve of parliament reconvening. The latest
shenanigans began as soon as the parliament was officially in session.
While the first vice president's
position is highly symbolic, it does entail a seat on the powerful national
security council and he would take over as interim president if anything should
happen to the president. Controversy swirled around Tin Aung Myint Oo, former
head of the powerful trade council in the outgoing millitary junta, ever since
his original nomination last year.
Rearguard representative
Tin Aung Myint Oo was Than Shwe's
personal selection for the post, though he was not the military's most popular
choice. In one of his last public appearances, Than Shwe visited the new
parliament to urge appointed parliamentarian soldiers - who make up 25% of
parliament - to nominate him after they had initially refused.
Upon taking up the post, Tin Aung
Myint Oo reportedly set his sights on becoming the next president in 2015. His
executive hopes were known to upset Speaker Shwe Mann, who saw bringing him
down as a key prerequisite for his own presidential ambitions, a key advisor to
the former general told Asia Times Online.
Tin Aung Myint Oo was widely
viewed as the hardline counterbalance to Thein Sein's reform plans. He was
especially active in government decisions impacting on business and the
economy, earning him the nick-name "Octopus" for his wide-ranging
reach in commercial affairs.
He was also regarded as one of
the less scrupulous members of the previous regime - the State Peace and
Development Council (SPDC) - in his role as a go-between for the then
government and Chinese businessmen. He was widely viewed as Than Shwe's
personal bag-man.
Tin Aung Myint Oo's strong
relationship with Beijing and Chinese business interests contributed to his
downfall, according to insider sources. Those ties generated suspicion and
mistrust at a time Thein Sein's government was trying to diversify the
country's diplomacy away from its past over-reliance on China.
After Tin Aung Myint Oo sent his
letter of resignation to Thein Sein, he reportedly took refuge in a Buddhist
monastery, where he stayed until his resignation was accepted. He actually
flitted between three different monasteries, according to a military source
close to him.
"He's in hiding," said
the former aide. He had to move from one monastery to another because he could
not legally ordain as a monk and maintain his political position, he added.
Thein Sein must fill his position
before he can proceed with his planned ministerial and government shake-up, say
government insiders. As Tin Aung Myint Oo was originally nominated by military
members of parliament, his successor must also be approved by them. This is
where the first-line political battle is taking place.
Although army chief Min Aung
Hlaing is not directly beholden to his former commander-in-chief Than Shwe, he
is anxious not to upset the old man, said a former military man who has
contacts with the current military leaders. Myint Swe, like Tin Aung Myint Oo,
was known to be close to Than Shwe. However finding another former military man
with the same credentials is proving difficult, say the insiders.
The citizenship issue apart,
Myint Swe was viewed by many as an ideal compromise candidate - suitable to the
military and with a newly proven pro-business acumen since becoming Yangon's
mayor. He could be expected to support Thein Sein's reform agenda and at the
same time uphold the military's concerns, according to Myanmar businessmen who
are close to him.
Against this transitional
backdrop, government insiders say Thein Sein plans massive reform and
restructuring of government, a so-called "renewal" that will aims to
make government more modern, efficient and transparent. Rumors suggest some
ministries could be merged while other efforts will be made to streamline the
bloated and corrupt bureaucracy.
"Some ministries are barely
functioning while others are more than full-speed ahead," said a source
close to the government. "This is the key pre-occupation - finding
competent ministers and bureaucrats that can deliver rather than searching for
reformers and liberals to head the reform process."
The risks to Thein Sein's
ambitious reform program are two-fold: solving ethnic issues that have plagued
the country for decades and boosting the beleaguered economy. Two of the
president's favorites, Railways Minister Aung Min and Industry Minister Soe
Thein, are expected to play more critical roles in the new administration that
emerges after the reshuffle.
Aung Min is tipped to become a
minister in the president's office commissioned with overseeing national
reconciliation efforts. Apart form continuing his ceasefire mediation efforts
with ethnic rebel groups, he will be responsible for encouraging Myanmar exiles
and expatriates to return to the country. He will also reportedly become a
member of the national defense security council and be given a measure of
authority over the military.
Soe Thein is expected to take on
the finance ministry or a merged industry and planning portfolio. He will
reportedly play a big role in the government's ramped up efforts to improve the
economy and reduce poverty, according to a senior source in government. Another
key area will be reform of the central bank, which sources in the business
community say will see a doubling of its staff.
None of these proposed changes
can proceed until the vice presidential vacancy is filled. The eventual
appointee will be expected to protect military interests, including gathering
momentum to amend the constitution in a way that reduces the military's role.
Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) Party have set this as one
of their three top priorities before the next elections are held in 2015.
It's a reform drive that
threatens to upset Thein Sein's delicate balancing act, and one that the new
appointed vice president will be expected to challenge and subvert.
Larry Jagan
Asia Times
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