VietNamNet Bridge – Tension has been rising in the East Sea,
with China’s escalating acts: establishing the so-called Shansha city,
organizing a government election there, building military station, sending more
than 20,000 fishing boats to the sea, etc. To provide more information for the
readers, VietNamNet held online talks with Prof. Carl Thayer, from the Center
for Defense and Strategic Studies (CDSS), Australian, a well-known expert on
security in Southeast Asia, the East Sea and China.
VietNamNet received a hundred questions from
our readers. Below is the full content of the talks.
China’s actions - a tit for tat
What do you observe about the escalation of tension in the East Sea recently? What has driven the escalation? To what extent is a more confident, assertive China the cause for the tension?
Prof. Carl Thayer: Three events precipitated a rise in tensions this year. The first was the confrontation at Scarborough Shoal when the Philippines was prevented from exercising its jurisdiction in its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
The Philippines sought to arrest Chinese fishermen who were illegally fishing. China intervened by sending a number of civilian enforcement vessels and the incident became a two-month standoff.
The second incident was the raising of the East Sea issue at the ASEAN Summit in April and the ASEAN Foreign Ministers ministerial meeting in July. On both occasions China used its diplomatic influence on Cambodia to try and prevent the East Sea issue from being discussed.
The third incident was China reactions to the passage of the Law on Territorial Sea by Vietnam. The China National Offshore Oil Company retaliated by offering nine leases in waters that fell almost entirely in Vietnam’s EEZ. More proactive elements in China appear to have become more assertive in pushing its territorial claim.
China has blamed Vietnam’s approval of the Law on Sea for the escalation of tensions in the East Sea. What do you think about it? In your viewpoint, what is implication of Vietnam's new law?
Prof. Carl Thayer: China tried to dissuade Vietnam from adopting the Law on the Sea. When it was clear that the National Assembly would go ahead anyway China planned its response. That is why the China National Offshore Oil Company immediately put to tender the nine blocks inside Vietnam’s EEZ but outside its 9-dash lines.
The most important part of Vietnam Law on the Sea is Article 2.2 where the law states that if anything in the law contravenes international law, international law takes precedence.
Some describe the East Sea tension as a cycle of action-reaction dynamic with increasing hostility betweens all claimants. Some researcher concerned that recent developments in the East Sea could raise the risk of an accidental clash that could escalate into a more serious military or political crisis. Could you share your view?
Prof. Carl Thayer: All sides to the East Sea dispute are distrustful of the other and are extremely sensitive to any perceived affront to national sovereignty.
The level of tensions have risen this year but the use of force to cut cables in Vietnamese waters and driving off a foreign oil exploration ship in Philippines’ waters has not been repeated.
China is exploring new tactics. I describe the East Sea as a bathtub. China is building more and more civilian enforce vessels and sending larger numbers of fishermen further south. The waters are contested, congested and prone to armed strife in the conclusion of the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank. I agree with this assessment.
A few months after the agreement on principle to solve sea disputes signed by leaders of Vietnam and China, China invited bids for oil exploration inside nine blocks within Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone. What are the implications of China’s move?
Prof. Carl Thayer: China’s actions were a tit for tat response to Vietnam’s adoption of the Law on Sea. China’s actions were largely political to counter Vietnam’s legal claim. It is unlikely that any major international oil company will take up China’s offer.
Do you think China will put into use its deep water oil drill in the East Sea disputed area?
Prof. Carl Thayer: No, not for the next three to five years. The mega rig is committed to long-term operations off the mouth of the Pearl River and an area within China’s EEZ with large hydrocarbon resources.
China uses a U-shaped (also called nine-dash or nine-dotted line) along the coastal line and the island chains in the East Sea as the basis for its sovereignty claim. The encircled area covers almost the entire East Sea. How should we deal with China’s claim?
Prof. Carl Thayer: Probably no one in Beijing knows exactly what the 9-dash line map really claims. It was drawn up by the Republic of China in 1948 and officially tabled with the United Nations Commission on Limits to Continental Shelf in 2009. China seems to be claiming historic rights to the waters. There is no provision UNCLOS for such a claim.
China has also claimed sovereignty over all the islands and rocks and their adjacent waters. Sovereignty can only be claimed over land. Land gives a state sovereign jurisdiction over water. For example, each island is entitled to a 200 nautical mile EEZ and each rock a 12 nautical mile territorial water.
Vietnam and other regional states first much put their claims to sovereignty and sovereign jurisdiction into line with international law. Vietnam claims excessive baselines (the pregnant lady) in the southeast. Vietnam should redraw this claim as the Philippines did recently when it redrew its baseline to bring them into conformity with international law.
Next Vietnam and regional states should press China to be specific about what it is claiming and bring its claims into line with international law. Experts say this would reduce the area in dispute.
Until China brings its claims into conformity with international law, Vietnam and other states should continue to put diplomatic pressure on China.
How is the risk of an armed confrontation in the East Sea?
Prof. Carl Thayer: The risk of armed confrontation between military ships is very low. The risk of armed confrontation by paramilitary ships is low. The danger of accident or miscalculation by local commanders is always present.
Jim Holmes in his article published on the Foreign Policy said this is time for the People’s Liberty Army of China to emerge and China must act quickly to occupy more features in the East Sea in order to take the lead in the dispute. He predicts that another armed attack like the one in 1974 may happen. Do you share that viewpoint?
Prof. Carl Thayer: No I do not share this view. It is not in China’s interest to provoke a military dispute and China’s occupation of an uninhabited feature or China’s seizure of an island from another country could be viewed, respectively, as a violation of the Declaration on Conduct of Parties and an act of aggression. China’s international prestige would plummet.
China would find its relations with ASEAN strained. And China would find that a coalition of maritime powers led by the United States would quickly taken shape. In sum, China’s actions would spark a new tense Cold War.
China’s actions - a tit for tat
What do you observe about the escalation of tension in the East Sea recently? What has driven the escalation? To what extent is a more confident, assertive China the cause for the tension?
Prof. Carl Thayer: Three events precipitated a rise in tensions this year. The first was the confrontation at Scarborough Shoal when the Philippines was prevented from exercising its jurisdiction in its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
The Philippines sought to arrest Chinese fishermen who were illegally fishing. China intervened by sending a number of civilian enforcement vessels and the incident became a two-month standoff.
The second incident was the raising of the East Sea issue at the ASEAN Summit in April and the ASEAN Foreign Ministers ministerial meeting in July. On both occasions China used its diplomatic influence on Cambodia to try and prevent the East Sea issue from being discussed.
The third incident was China reactions to the passage of the Law on Territorial Sea by Vietnam. The China National Offshore Oil Company retaliated by offering nine leases in waters that fell almost entirely in Vietnam’s EEZ. More proactive elements in China appear to have become more assertive in pushing its territorial claim.
China has blamed Vietnam’s approval of the Law on Sea for the escalation of tensions in the East Sea. What do you think about it? In your viewpoint, what is implication of Vietnam's new law?
Prof. Carl Thayer: China tried to dissuade Vietnam from adopting the Law on the Sea. When it was clear that the National Assembly would go ahead anyway China planned its response. That is why the China National Offshore Oil Company immediately put to tender the nine blocks inside Vietnam’s EEZ but outside its 9-dash lines.
The most important part of Vietnam Law on the Sea is Article 2.2 where the law states that if anything in the law contravenes international law, international law takes precedence.
Some describe the East Sea tension as a cycle of action-reaction dynamic with increasing hostility betweens all claimants. Some researcher concerned that recent developments in the East Sea could raise the risk of an accidental clash that could escalate into a more serious military or political crisis. Could you share your view?
Prof. Carl Thayer: All sides to the East Sea dispute are distrustful of the other and are extremely sensitive to any perceived affront to national sovereignty.
The level of tensions have risen this year but the use of force to cut cables in Vietnamese waters and driving off a foreign oil exploration ship in Philippines’ waters has not been repeated.
China is exploring new tactics. I describe the East Sea as a bathtub. China is building more and more civilian enforce vessels and sending larger numbers of fishermen further south. The waters are contested, congested and prone to armed strife in the conclusion of the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank. I agree with this assessment.
A few months after the agreement on principle to solve sea disputes signed by leaders of Vietnam and China, China invited bids for oil exploration inside nine blocks within Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone. What are the implications of China’s move?
Prof. Carl Thayer: China’s actions were a tit for tat response to Vietnam’s adoption of the Law on Sea. China’s actions were largely political to counter Vietnam’s legal claim. It is unlikely that any major international oil company will take up China’s offer.
Do you think China will put into use its deep water oil drill in the East Sea disputed area?
Prof. Carl Thayer: No, not for the next three to five years. The mega rig is committed to long-term operations off the mouth of the Pearl River and an area within China’s EEZ with large hydrocarbon resources.
China uses a U-shaped (also called nine-dash or nine-dotted line) along the coastal line and the island chains in the East Sea as the basis for its sovereignty claim. The encircled area covers almost the entire East Sea. How should we deal with China’s claim?
Prof. Carl Thayer: Probably no one in Beijing knows exactly what the 9-dash line map really claims. It was drawn up by the Republic of China in 1948 and officially tabled with the United Nations Commission on Limits to Continental Shelf in 2009. China seems to be claiming historic rights to the waters. There is no provision UNCLOS for such a claim.
China has also claimed sovereignty over all the islands and rocks and their adjacent waters. Sovereignty can only be claimed over land. Land gives a state sovereign jurisdiction over water. For example, each island is entitled to a 200 nautical mile EEZ and each rock a 12 nautical mile territorial water.
Vietnam and other regional states first much put their claims to sovereignty and sovereign jurisdiction into line with international law. Vietnam claims excessive baselines (the pregnant lady) in the southeast. Vietnam should redraw this claim as the Philippines did recently when it redrew its baseline to bring them into conformity with international law.
Next Vietnam and regional states should press China to be specific about what it is claiming and bring its claims into line with international law. Experts say this would reduce the area in dispute.
Until China brings its claims into conformity with international law, Vietnam and other states should continue to put diplomatic pressure on China.
How is the risk of an armed confrontation in the East Sea?
Prof. Carl Thayer: The risk of armed confrontation between military ships is very low. The risk of armed confrontation by paramilitary ships is low. The danger of accident or miscalculation by local commanders is always present.
Jim Holmes in his article published on the Foreign Policy said this is time for the People’s Liberty Army of China to emerge and China must act quickly to occupy more features in the East Sea in order to take the lead in the dispute. He predicts that another armed attack like the one in 1974 may happen. Do you share that viewpoint?
Prof. Carl Thayer: No I do not share this view. It is not in China’s interest to provoke a military dispute and China’s occupation of an uninhabited feature or China’s seizure of an island from another country could be viewed, respectively, as a violation of the Declaration on Conduct of Parties and an act of aggression. China’s international prestige would plummet.
China would find its relations with ASEAN strained. And China would find that a coalition of maritime powers led by the United States would quickly taken shape. In sum, China’s actions would spark a new tense Cold War.
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