The past two centuries of Western
domination of world history have been a major historical aberration because
from the year 1 to the year 1820, the two largest economies in the world were
always Asian (China and India). All historical aberrations come to a natural end.
We will return soon to the Asian century, if not the Asian millennium.
The one country that will have to
make the most painful adjustment to the Asian century is undoubtedly Australia.
As Western power slowly but steadily recedes from Asia, Australia could well be
left beached, together with New Zealand, as the sole Western entity in Asia.
Today, Australia is naturally clinging on to American power for comfort. The
deployment of 2,500 Marines in Darwin recently clearly sent a signal that
Australia was counting on American security protection.
Yet American power will also
recede steadily. Few Americans and Australians are aware of how quickly the
American economy will become number two in the world. IMF statistics show that
in PPP terms America had a 25 percent share of the global economy in 1980,
while China only had 2.2 percent. By 2016, the American share will decline to
17.6 percent while the Chinese share will rise to 18 percent.
Under these dramatically changed
historical circumstances, the biggest mistake that Australia could make is to
continue on auto-pilot, clinging to Western or American power as its sole
source of security.
A strong desire to remain part of
the West is perfectly natural. The Australian Foreign Minister, Bob Carr,
explained this desire well in his interview with The Straits Times on July 6.
“But by language and institutions and values, Australia is undeniably Western
and should not apologize for it,” he said. “It is who we are. It makes us
interesting and it makes us valuable to all interlocutors... A parliamentary
democracy, an independent judiciary, a free press, a focus on human rights —
all derive from the Western tradition. The Asian migrants who come here
bringing their cultures and their perspectives like it that way.”
The logic of cultural identity
cannot, however, trump hard geopolitical considerations. Let me make a slightly
provocative comparison to drive home that point. The West supported the white
minority apartheid government throughout the Cold War because it was seen as a
necessary bulwark against Soviet expansion in Africa.
However, as soon as the Cold War
ended, South Africa lost its strategic usefulness and was quickly abandoned by
the West. Their common cultural roots did not factor in the equation. At the
same time, to avoid any misunderstanding, let me stress that Australia, unlike
apartheid South Africa, does not sit as a “foreign” object in Asia.
It has adapted relatively well
over the years to its Asian neighborhood. It enjoys close and friendly relations
with many of its Asian neighbors.
Indeed, Australia has many assets
in Asia. First, Australia is a member of the Five Power Defense Arrangements
(FPDA) together with Singapore, Malaysia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.
Established in 1971, the FPDA has sought to complement the traditional US
bilateral alliances and networks, more recent minilateral arrangements, as well
as ASEAN’s operations in promoting peace and stability in Southeast Asia. In so
doing, Australia, together with the UK and New Zealand, plays a part in
sustaining the Southeast Asian security architecture.
Second, Australia has carried out
a number of education and training projects through the Australian Agency for
International Development (AusAID) and other government agencies. In fact,
AusAID funds the ASEAN-Australia Development Cooperation Program which helps in
the realization of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 2015.
The program focuses on building
the institutional capacity of ASEC, funding critical economic research and
policy activities, and implementing projects that help less developed ASEAN
member states operationalize elements of the ASEAN Economic Blueprint.
In short, Australia is already
playing a pivotal role in raising the quality of education and training among
ASEAN member states.
Third, Australia has cultivated
close ties with its Asian neighbors, particularly Japan and Indonesia. Japan
and Australia have close economic ties, since Japan is Australia’s largest
trading partner and a major source of capital investment. In 2007, Australia
and Japan started negotiations on a bilateral free trade agreement. Both
countries have also cooperated in the areas of culture, tourism, defense and
scientific cooperation.
Australia also has generally good
ties with Indonesia. Since the independence of Indonesia, both countries have
cooperated in the areas of fisheries conservation, law enforcement, and
justice. In June 2006, Indonesia and Australia also concluded a security
agreement, known as the Lombok Agreement, to provide a framework for the
development of the bilateral security relationship.
In 2011-2012, Australia’s
assistance to Indonesia was worth an estimated $558 million. Indonesia is
Australia’s top recipient of bilateral aid. Both countries also have a healthy
trade and economic relationship with two-way trade (merchandise and services)
worth $13.8 billion in 2010-11, and two-way investment worth around $5.7
billion in 2010.
The importance of the
Australian-Indonesian relationship can be summarized in a 1994 speech by Paul
Keating in which he said, “No country is more important to Australia than
Indonesia. If we fail to get this relationship right, and nurture and develop
it, the whole web of our foreign relations is incomplete. [...] The emergence of
the New Order government of president Soeharto, and the stability and
prosperity which [it] has brought to [Indonesia], was the single most
beneficial strategic development to have affected Australia and its region in
the past 30 years.”
Kishore Mahbubani
The article is an excerpt from a paper recently submitted at a seminar
in Canberra, Australia. The writer, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew school of public
policy, National University of Singapore, is former Singapore permanent
representative to the United Nations.
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