Comfortable with Indonesian mediation over rival territorial claims in
the South China Sea, the United States is working to broaden Singapore’s role
in resolving the dispute.
On his way to New York for the
U.N. General Assembly, Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa stopped in
Washington to meet with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to discuss “the kind
of efforts Indonesia is trying to make to create an environment in our region
that is peaceful and stable and therefore prosperous as well.”
Thanking him for “personal
leadership that has helped lay the groundwork for diplomacy between ASEAN and
China as it relates to the South China Sea,” Clinton reaffirmed the Obama
administration’s support for a leading role for the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations to “reduce tensions and pave the way for a comprehensive code of
conduct for addressing disputes without threats, coercion, or use of force.”
Over the past few decades, China
has increasingly asserted its claim of sovereignty over most of the South China
Sea, and scores of tiny, mostly uninhabited islands and reefs. Taiwan, Vietnam,
the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei also claim parts of the sea.
Clinton and Natalegawa have
worked well together on the South China Sea issue, says a senior State
Department official, as “the supporting states around Indonesia, encouraging
Indonesia, explaining what are the necessary components of sort of advancing
the ball in the South China Sea [and how it] would include Malaysia, Singapore,
and Brunei.”
“Each of them play a very careful
and quiet role,” says the official. “None of them enjoy being in the spotlight.
All of them would prefer progress be made, but don’t want to expose themselves
to unnecessary scrutiny or criticism.”
A changing relationship
U.S. Council on Foreign Relations
analyst Joshua Kurlantzick says Washington is “definitely walking a fine
balance with some of these countries, like Singapore, where our ties are increasingly
close. They are the best in the region.”
“Singapore, I think, is walking
farther away from the role it has historically played, which is really close to
the U.S., but it sort of publicly didn’t talk about it and still tried to be a
balancer,” he says. “I think we are moving with them closer to a more
traditional alliance.”
But Washington-based Cato
Institute analyst Justin Logan offers a different perspective. While he agrees
that Singapore is moving closer to the United States, especially on the South
China Sea, he says it may not result in such a traditional alliance.
“The United States likes to have
very, very enthusiastic allies,” Logan says. “And I think that the Singaporeans
tend to have a more reserved, more calculated, careful approach. So it is
certainly true that relations between the United States and Singapore have
gotten better. They are getting more attention in Washington. But I do not
think that you are going to have this extraordinarily tight, sometimes
ebullient-style relationship that the United States has enjoyed in the past.”
A geopolitically strategic position
Singapore, home to a small U.S.
military base of mainly naval personnel that act primarily as logistical
support for ships and aircraft passing through the region, understands well its
position at the nexus of South China Sea claims.
“Everybody wants to sit down and
talk with the Singaporeans,” he says. “And they realize that everybody wants to
be friendly with the Singaporeans. Given their strategic positioning in this, they
have played, I think, a very adept diplomatic game in trying to be friendly
with everyone because everyone wants to be friendly with them.”
State Department officials point
to Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s speech in Beijing ahead of the Asia
Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in which he said the Chinese government and
people are determined to overcome “various challenges” but stressed that ASEAN
must take a position “which is neutral, forward-looking and encourages the
peaceful resolution of issues,” because to do otherwise “would severely damage
its credibility.”
“We should never underestimate
the U.S. capacity to reinvigorate and reinvent itself,” Lee told Communist
Party leaders. “The U.S. is an enormously resilient and creative society, which
attracts and absorbs talent from all over the world, including many from China
and the rest of Asia.”
Lee’s speech, say State
Department officials, appeared to be aimed at both Chinese leaders and ASEAN
colleagues.
“I think what Singapore is trying
to do is create more space for dialogue and discussion, and has made very clear
that the approach that we have articulated has found some common cause among
ASEAN leaders,” a senior official says.
Brunei’s emerging role
One of those is leaders is
Brunei’s Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, with whom Secretary Clinton visited as part
of her APEC trip.
“They’re low-key, but concerned
about how ASEAN has managed the situation today,” a senior State Department
official says of Brunei’s role in the South China Sea. “They tried very hard to
work behind the scenes toward consensus in advance of the East Asia Summit in
November.”
Like many ASEAN countries, they
want very much to have a good relationship with the United States and China,
says the official.
“They don’t want to have to
choose. But at the same time, they are very committed to defending their
sovereignty and feel very strongly that issues associated with the South China
Sea have to be resolved in a conciliatory, diplomatic manner, and are worried
about coercion generally.”
“They do most of their business
behind the scenes, not out in the open,” the State Department official adds.
“But I think they’re somewhat nervous about next year when they’re going to
host the East Asia Summit and the ASEAN Regional Forum, largely because they
would like to avoid the kinds of public tensions that we witnessed when we were
in Cambodia.”
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