WASHINGTON (AP) — Changes could be in store for U.S.-Asian
relations, but that has little to do with the presidential race. Lost in the
backbiting between President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney over China
is that they generally agree on their approaches to Asia. But whoever wins the
Nov. 6 vote will have to deal with a region in flux — and figure out how to
keep simmering tensions from boiling over.
Leadership changes are imminent
in East Asia’s dominant economies — China, Japan and South Korea — in the midst
of territorial disputes that could spark conflict. The new leaders who emerge
will be crucial in setting the tone for relations with the next occupant of the
White House.
Just two days after the U.S.
election, China begins its once-in-a-decade Communist Party Congress that will
usher in a new crop of party leaders. Japan within months is expected to hold
elections, as the popularity of the country’s seventh prime minister in seven
years sinks. And in December, South Korea holds presidential elections that are
likely to set it on a more conciliatory track in its relations with North
Korea.
How the U.S. gets on with China
affects the entire region. Many Asian countries look to China as their main
trading partner, but they regard the longstanding U.S. security presence as a
defense against China’s rapid military buildup.
Xi Jinping, who will take the
party helm and be anointed China’s president in March, is a largely unknown
quantity. Some suggest his elite background, military ties and confident air
might portend a more assertive hand in foreign policy than the incumbent, Hu
Jintao.
Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at
the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, said she expects
Xi to continue constructive ties with the U.S. While Washington will push
Beijing to adhere to international law and norms, she doesn’t expect a new
administration to pick a fight with the new Chinese leadership, which itself
will be focused on pepping up economic growth and maintaining domestic
stability.
“The United States may be to some
extent reactive,” Glaser said. “If China is seen as more assertive, challenging
U.S. interests anywhere, it will get a tougher U.S. policy.”
Despite Romney accusing Obama of
being soft on Beijing’s trade violations, and Obama attacking Romney’s former
business interests for outsourcing jobs, the candidates agree that the United
States needs to engage Beijing and make the U.S. presence felt more in the
Asia-Pacific, an area of growing economic importance.
Obama has deepened ties with
China, but there are new areas of tension.
Beijing is accusing Washington of
shutting out major Chinese companies, particularly its technology giants that
are seeking a foothold in America. U.S. diplomatic interest in maritime
territorial disputes between China and its neighbors in the South China Sea
also annoys Beijing.
Washington is keeping a lower
profile in a potentially more explosive territorial spat that has flared
between China and staunch U.S. ally Japan. U.S. treaty obligations, however,
require it to help Japan if disputed islands in the East China Sea come under
attack.
China has sent ships to the area
in a show of force, and Japan shows no sign of making diplomatic concessions.
If Japanese opposition leader Shinzo Abe gains power in elections that
unpopular Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda is expected to call soon, tamping down
tensions will become even tougher. Abe, a former prime minister with nationalist
tendencies, is considered a hawk on China.
The next U.S. administration will
also be grappling with South Korea’s leadership change and how that affects
cooperation on North Korea, a perennial regional flashpoint.
Obama has hewed to the tough
stance of President Lee Myung-bak, but the next South Korean leader is expected
to pursue a more conciliatory approach to the North, which could make it
tougher to coordinate policy.
There is little appetite in
Washington to try for a new agreement aimed at the North dismantling its
nuclear weapons program in exchange for aid. A February pact to give food in
return for nuclear concessions collapsed when the North fired a long-range
rocket. Pyongyang has been hinting it could discard 2005 commitments on
denuclearization and declare itself a nuclear state, which would be
unacceptable to Washington.
Judging from comments by policy
advisers, Obama remains open to U.S.-North Korean talks but first seeks
concrete steps from Pyongyang on halting missile and nuclear tests and freezing
uranium enrichment. A Romney administration would be likely to seek tighter
sanctions, which might put it at odds with a more moderate South Korean policy,
although a sudden disagreement with Seoul on nuclear issues is unlikely.
North Korea, which counts China
as its only major ally, has scarcely registered as an issue in the election
campaign. The only Asia-related policy promise that has garnered attention has
been Romney’s vow to designate China as a currency manipulator, a step that could
strain U.S.-China ties.
History shows that the China
relationship is prone to dramatic ups and downs.
Within three months of taking
office in 2001, George W. Bush was thrust into a China crisis after a collision
between a U.S. spy plane and a Chinese fighter jet. Under Bush’s predecessor,
Bill Clinton, U.S.-China relations started badly, then improved, only to
deteriorate sharply after the mistaken U.S. aerial bombing of Beijing’s embassy
in Belgrade in 1999, which sparked vociferous anti-U.S. protests.
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