Asean's cohesiveness and capability were stress-tested at the 45th
annual Asean Ministerial Meeting in Phnom Penh in July and found wanting. The
AMM's failure to issue a joint communiqué for the first time in its 45-year
history reflected the inability of the Cambodian chair and other members to
reconcile their differences over the territorial disputes in the South China
Sea involving China.
While Cambodia claimed that it
acted from a "position of principle" of not wanting Asean to take
sides on bilateral matters, other members asserted that not making any
reference to the dispute would be irresponsible and dent Asean's credibility.
During his visit to Beijing in
early September Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong declared that the
South China Sea was a major issue for Asean and that its credibility would be
severely damaged if it chose not to address it. PM Lee added that it was
important for Asean "not to take sides on the various claims" but to
"take and state a position which is neutral, forward-looking, and
encourages the peaceful resolution of issues".
In a joint statement on September
13, Lee and Vietnam Party leader Nguyen Phu Trong called for the peaceful
resolution of the disputes in accordance with international law. They expressed
the hope that discussions between Asean and China on a code of conduct to
manage the South China Sea territorial disputes peacefully could start as
"soon as possible".
Historically, Asean has pursued a
policy of neutrality, as evinced in the Declaration of the Zone of Peace,
Freedom and Neutrality in 1971, which placed great emphasis on maintaining a
stance equidistant between the big powers. Since the end of the Cold War the
role of Asean has shifted from a reticent passenger to an active driver
initiating dialogue relations and economic partnerships with the key powers
from the United States to China, India and Russia, culminating with the East
Asia Summit (Asean plus eight) in 2011. Asean has also taken and stated
positions on global issues while abstaining from involvement in disputes
between major powers.
Between Washington and Beijing
Nevertheless, a second and
perhaps more pressing concern is whether Asean will be forced to choose between
Washington and Beijing. This is where the Asean community will have to tread
carefully to ensure its long-term goals are not held hostage by short-term choices.
Indeed both the US and China have increased their footprint in Asia in the past
decade - economically and militarily.
Given the preponderant influence
the US has historically wielded in the region, one can argue that relations
between Washington and Asean are institutionalised enough to provide some
degree of political predictability. As such, the so-called US pivot towards
Asia should not be considered a new policy of the Obama administration, but
rather a long-term effort to sustain US access and presence in a region that
will survive changes of administrations.
In an interview earlier this
year, Singapore's Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen reflected the view of more than
one Asean country when he described Singapore's defence relation with the US as
being "qualitatively different" from that with China, the US link
being based on a "longer history and shared perspectives on a range of
regional issues".
Nevertheless, Beijing's strategic
diplomacy over the years has resulted in growing ties between itself and Asean,
especially the developing member countries such as Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar.
Being Asean's largest trading partner, Beijing has since expanded its economic
influence to include more than just being the world's largest factory. Indeed,
the influx of yuan into financial markets has allowed Beijing to push for a
greater internationalisation of its currency. But more than its economic
muscle, Beijing also weighs in heavily in the international system; in the
words of PM Lee, "[China] is such a major player that no global issue can
be resolved without China's participation".
As such, a more circumspect
assessment of Asean's dealings with the US and China would be to recognise the
extent of domestic sentiments being factored in both countries' foreign policy.
While international headlines often mention the rivalry and tensions between
the two countries, a more accurate assessment would also have to take into
account the positive signs that have emerged in the Sino-US relationship. These
include their common response to North Korea's April 2012 rocket test and the
significant levels of cooperation in addressing the Iranian nuclear challenge.
Both Beijing and Washington are aware of the global stakes and are also
actively interacting with each other to ensure that their interests remain best
served.
While it is important that Asean
countries are able to share a common vision of the region's future, a realistic
appraisal of the varying national interests at stake would mean that the Asean
community cannot possibly be expected to agree on every issue. In light of
America's pivot to Asia and the perceived expansion of Chinese power, the
interests of Asean states would be better served by continually expanding their
relations with other regional and global partners.
Indeed, the expanded East Asia
Summit and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, both with substantial participation
from Asean, have allowed individual member states to look beyond regional
shores in their articulation of national interests.
Nonetheless, it is important for
Asean states to remain cognisant of their common obligations to the wider Asean
community and to act in accordance with established international principles.
As PM Lee reiterated in Beijing, "Asean must remain united to be able to
exercise influence on the international stage, to have our voices heard, and to
secure and advance our common interests".
Indeed, no Asean state can act in
isolation from the Asean community; the pursuit of national interests cannot be
separated from the need to be good neighbours and partners. At 45 years, Asean
members' fortunes - and future - are closely bound together.
Benjamin Ho is an associate
research fellow in the Multilateralism and Regionalism Programme at the S
Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), in Singapore.
Benjamin Ho
RSIS
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