HANOI — Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung survived a leadership
challenge Monday as he struggles to stabilize the country's foundering economy,
but he and other top leaders now face growing pressure from a new and pervasive
threat here: the Internet.
Ruling Communist Party
Secretary-General Nguyen Phu Trong acknowledged in a televised broadcast that
the party had mishandled the management of Vietnam's economy, which is now
facing mounting bad debts and slowing growth rates that are taking the shine
off what had been one of Asia's brightest economic success stories. Speaking at
the end of a two-week meeting that analysts viewed as a judgment on Mr. Dung's
performance, Mr. Trong urged the Politburo, the country's top policy-making
body, to overcome its weaknesses and exert stronger leadership.
Mr. Dung wasn't mentioned by
name, but analysts say it was a scorching rebuke for a man who has built a
considerable power base in the government and bureaucracy since being appointed
in 2006, and the verdict will likely spread more power among other key
Politburo members. The prime minister couldn't be reached to comment.
Indeed, the meeting triggered
widespread speculation about how long Mr. Dung, 62 years old, could survive as
prime minister of this tightly controlled state after a series of economic
missteps, including the bankruptcy of state-owned shipbuilder Vinashin in 2010
and several currency devaluations.
And, in what could become a
recurring problem for Vietnam's rigid Communist hierarchy, much of the
speculation and criticism came from a series of popular new Internet sites.
The most influential of these
sites appeared five months ago. Called Quan Lam Bao, or Officials Doing
Journalism, its anonymous contributors purported to provide an inside track on
the goings-on at the highest echelons of power in Vietnam with a distinctly
tabloid flair.
Quan Lam Bao's first posts
detailed the alleged love lives of leading party figures, and then reported the
arrest of banking executives implicated in financial scandals before their
detentions were widely known. More recently, users have logged on to the site
to lay into Mr. Dung. Typical posts describe Mr. Dung as "a parasite"
or "a dictator," or else attempt to ridicule his record during
Vietnam's war with the United States by calling him a nurse, among other
things.
Mr. Dung wasted little time in
responding. Last month he ordered police to investigate Quan Lam Bao and two
other websites and shut them down for publishing misleading articles, while a
government statement described them as part of a "wicked plot"
planned by "hostile forces"—a term frequently used here to describe
pro-democracy activists. Separately, three prominent bloggers were sentenced to
lengthy prison terms in what analysts say was an attempt to scare off Internet
users from breaking the country's strict laws by calling for multiparty
democracy or challenging the authorities of the Communist Party.
The sites, though, continued to
draw wide attention, driven in part by their controversial allegations, and the
approach of a crucial Communist Party meeting to determine Mr. Dung's fate and
discuss ways to inject fresh vim into Vietnam's sputtering economy.
"The success of these
Internet sites is a failure of the Communist Party to make itself
transparent," said Nguyen Quang A, one of Vietnam's best-known economists
and the founder of its only independent think tank, before it was disbanded
three years ago. "Now the Internet is amplifying the rumors because people
think that what they read is true," he said. The Internet is playing an
increasingly important role in Vietnamese life.
Around 34% of the country's 90
million people are online, a greater proportion than in neighboring countries
such as Thailand and Indonesia, and there are over 110 million registered
cellular phones. Digital activists and independent analysts say ordinary
Vietnamese frequently turn to the Internet to get a better idea of what is
going on in the country because of extensive state control of mainstream
television broadcasters and newspapers.
Analysts say Vietnam's leaders
are wary of the impact of the Internet, and closely observed the spread of Arab
Spring uprisings across the Middle East and North Africa last year. Today, only
China detains more Internet users, according to Reporters Without Borders.
Vietnam's economic slowdown also
encourages people to make their voices heard. A persistent double-digit
inflation prompted the government to sharply raise interest rates last year,
stalling bank lending and stifling the rest of the economy. This year the
government expects the economy to grow 5.5%, well off its customary 7%-plus
growth rates in recent years.
At the same time, some Vietnamese
are growing more concerned about whether their land will be reallocated when a
series of land-right agreements expire over the next couple of years. Already
there have been several violent clashes as security forces attempt to evict farmers.
In Vietnam, the state owns all land, and the government distributed large plots
in land-use agreements 20 years ago and which are now expiring.
"People are much more
willing to express their dissatisfaction now, and often go online to do
it," said Maria Patrikainen, an analyst with IHS Global Insight in London,
who adds that the government now has to perform a difficult balancing act
between allowing a degree of criticism, and protecting its own standing in the
country.
"There is a lot of
frustration, and this is a long-term problem the Party has to face," she
said.
James Hookway
Business & Investment Opportunities
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