The 7th East Asia Summit (EAS) held last week was notable for a number
of reasons, including the launching of a new regional free trade agreement and
the introduction of several U.S. proposals on energy and maritime security. But
the elephant in the room once again was the South China Sea (SCS) and
disagreements among ASEAN countries stoked in part by China.
Just over four months ago, ASEAN
failed to issue a joint statement at its foreign minister’s meeting for the
first time because host nation, Cambodia, insisted that language on the SCS
should not even be mentioned. Many suspected that China had used its economic
leverage on Cambodia to ensure ASEAN remained divided on the issue, and a few
reports even suggested Cambodian officials had shared drafts of the statement
with Chinese interlocutors.
Those who were perturbed by those
developments are unlikely find any relief from developments of the past week.
This time, at the ASEAN Summit, Cambodia tried to force through the idea that
ASEAN leaders had come to a consensus “that they will not internationalize the
South China Sea issue from now on”, in the words of Foreign Ministry official
Kao Kim Hourn. The trouble is that the language, which was strikingly similar
to Chinese mantras, did not reflect what was agreed upon. At least five ASEAN
countries objected and Cambodia was eventually forced to remove the
controversial language from the final declaration. The Philippines was
particularly vexed, with President Benigno Aquino openly rebuking Cambodian
Prime Minister Hun Sen and Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario
insisting that there was an attempt to translate statements “into a consensus
without our consent”.
While Cambodia was attempting to
dilute ASEAN’s consensus on the SCS, China was seeking to downplay the issue
within the EAS’ multilateral setting. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao repeated the
all-too-familiar Chinese assertion that territorial disputes should not be
discussed at multilateral events but bilaterally between China and each of the
ASEAN claimant states. Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang and Chinese envoys
also repeatedly attempted to sidestep the issue, saying that it should not be a
“stumbling block” in ASEAN-China relations and that the main focus of the EAS
should be greater economic cooperation amid the international financial crisis.
ASEAN had in fact agreed to formally ask China to start talks on a code of
conduct (CoC) on the SCS before the EAS had begun, according to outgoing ASEAN
Secretary General Surin Pitsuwan, but Premier Wen played down the need for
urgent action on the issue. “On the ASEAN side, we are ready, willing and very
much committed, but it takes two to tango”, Pitsuwan said.
Given that tensions over the SCS
have dominated two rounds of meetings this year, how can ASEAN ensure that this
will not happen again next year? The Philippines, twice bitten and thrice shy,
announced after the EAS that it will host a meeting in Manila on December 12
with fellow claimants Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia. The four countries should
use this as an opportunity to coordinate strategies on how to best advance
their claims to China in a more unified way. One way to do so would be to make
their claims explicit by codifying them in domestic legislation and
multilateral frameworks in accordance with international law and the United
Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), followed by a process where
stakeholders clarify convergences and divergences. Only by being clear about
their own claims can ASEAN states prevent China from exploiting divisions and
ambiguities that exist within the bloc in future summits or dealings. That will
also help facilitate negotiations on the CoC between ASEAN states and China.
Furthermore, ASEAN countries
should continue to engage with next year’s ASEAN chair (and SCS claimant)
Brunei on how it plans on handling the SCS issue in multilateral forums as
appropriate. Brunei has traditionally preferred a low-key approach in dealing
with contentious issues like the SCS, exemplified during ASEAN deliberations in
July this year when its delegation simply said it would be “guided by” the
decision of the ASEAN chair, as opposed to other claimants who insisted on a
reference to the dispute in the joint communique. In 2013, the government in
Bandar Seri Begawan will no longer have the luxury of simply deferring to other
countries or remaining neutral as ASEAN chair. If Brunei needs any advice or
guidance on tackling divisive issues, the organization’s more experienced
members should be prepared to provide it.
Lastly, ASEAN states should not
give in to intimidation by China on the SCS. Beijing has used such tactics in
the past with claimant states, with its China National Offshore Oil Corporation
(CNOOC) calling for foreign oil and gas companies to explore nine blocks in
disputed waters in violation of Vietnam’s sovereignty and its quarantine of
imported tropical fruit from the Philippines after saber-rattling in the
Scarborough Shoal. A new wave of intimidation appears to be taking shape just a
few days after China downplayed territorial disputes at the EAS, with Beijing
releasing fresh passports containing a map of China which includes parts of the
South China Sea claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines and others as well as
disputed territory on the Indian border. Asian countries have rightly expressed
outrage at the move and have responded by refusing to stamp them or drawing up
their own maps. It is important that these countries continue to register their
official protests in this manner in case Beijing tries to assert later on that
stamping the passports could be regarded as effectively endorsing its claims.
Cambodia’s chairmanship this year
has shown ASEAN that it is only as strong as its weakest link. In order to
prevent outside actors from exploiting divisions within the bloc, ASEAN states
must redouble their efforts at unifying their positions where they should and
taking a clear stand where they must. Only then can the bloc continue to
effectively occupy the driver’s seat in pushing for greater regional
integration in the Asia-Pacific.
Prashanth Parameswaran
Business & Investment Opportunities
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