PHNOM PENH — World leaders congregate this week in Cambodia for high-level meetings
of the Association of SouthEast Asian Nations. Analysts say ASEAN members will
try to present a more united front after divisive meetings in July ended in
embarrassment. But hot-button issues,
including a key maritime dispute and human rights concerns, will continue to
test ASEAN’s resolve.
Stumbling blocks
July’s ministerial summit in
Phnom Penh could hardly have gone worse for officials hoping for a show of
unity among the diverse 10-member bloc. The meetings stumbled over the
contentious issue of competing claims to the South China Sea. Cambodia, this year’s
chair, was accused of siding with its powerful benefactor, China.
This leaders’ summit, then, may
be an opportunity for Cambodia to find some redemption in the eyes of its
critics, before it gives up the chair for the year.
Carlyle Thayer, an analyst on
ASEAN affairs with the University of New South Wales, says ASEAN members will
aim to avoid a repeat of July’s stalemate.
“So the worst thing Cambodia can
do is try to exert a strong influence against where the currents are
going," Thayer says. "This is their last moment of glory-to go out
being looked at well. The point is there's nothing further they can really do
for China.”
The Philippines, one of four
ASEAN members with competing claims to the South China Sea, along with China
and Taiwan, will almost certainly raise the issue again. But Thayer says it’s
just as certain that China and ASEAN will be unable to strike a deal in the
coming days on a long-awaited Code of Conduct to sort out the claims.
“In the South China Sea, it's
what spin will be put on where they're at, where ASEAN has reached agreement
and saying bland things, congratulatory things about China and making progress.
But there will be no Code of Conduct approved,” Thayer explains.
Burma
But it is far from the only issue
that will provoke debate. Ongoing tensions in Burma’s Rakhine state continue to
be a stumbling block on the country’s much-publicized road to reforms.
Some observers say this could
also be an opportunity for ASEAN to show it can resolve conflicts, which has
long been a question mark for a group with a reputation for being reluctant to
criticize its own members.
“I think this could be an issue
that will rescue ASEAN, if Myanmar [Burma] would like to play along … it could
be good for ASEAN, because this will be the issue about the protection of human
rights, and ASEAN already has the human rights commission, which has been
criticized of doing nothing in the last few years," says Pavin
Chachavalpongpun, a political analyst at Kyoto University. "This could be
the chance for the human rights commission to come, basically not to point
fingers at anyone, but to just do what ASEAN does best: coming to educate, to
raise awareness and to urge the government to do something.”
Still, Burma has resisted recent
efforts to treat the problem as anything more than an internal issue.
Human rights
The coming meetings will more
likely see the bloc move ahead with cementing a declaration on human rights.
Critics say previous drafts of the document have been insufficient.
But anticipation for the leaders’
summit will be focused on the big names expected to attend. That will include
U.S. President Barack Obama, whose scheduled visit would mark the first
appearance of a sitting American head of state in Cambodia.
Obama’s presence will see a
continued focus on U.S. objectives in the region as part of a so-called “pivot”
to Asia and China’s reaction to renewed American interests in its backyard.
Ernie Bower, with Washington’s
Center for Strategic and International Studies, says Obama, well aware of
suspicions in China, will seek to downplay the narrative of a U.S.
“containment” strategy for China.
“The whole idea of a China area
of influence and a U.S. area of influence and forcing countries to choose is
exactly not what the United States wants to be about,” Bower says.
Most countries in attendance will
be looking to build on trade ties with ASEAN members. But the United States
could be left out when the bloc officially launches negotiations for the
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which could eventually lead to a
free trade area including all of ASEAN, China, India, Japan, South Korea,
Australia and New Zealand.
Irwin Loy
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