Tomorrow the international community will find out who is the choice of
the American voters. For Asean, it is crystal clear the incumbent is the one.
Here are 10 reasons for choosing Barack Obama.
1. In general, the Asean leaders
want Obama to return as president so he can take part in the upcoming East Asia
Summit (EAS), which will be held two weeks later in Phnom Penh. The seventh EAS
will be one of the most important meetings between the leaders of Asean and the
world's most powerful countries including the US, Russia, China and India as
each country is undergoing substantive changes dictated by their own domestic
and external dynamics. To Asean, Obama represents a continuity of US commitment
to Asia.
2. If the presidential
challenger, Mitt Romney wins the race, he would have no reason to travel to
Southeast Asia at any future date. His first task would be to consolidate his
new administrative team as well as reshape the US foreign policy towards the
Middle East, focusing on Israel and Iran. If Asia matters, it is about China
and Japan. Asean will be very low on the list.
3. The Asean chair, Cambodia, was
so excited that the spokesman of Foreign Ministry in Phnom Penh announced on
Tuesday that Obama has confirmed that he would visit Cambodia and attend the
EAS. It is a clear indication that the White House is confident of his victory
in the presidential race tomorrow. After the July's hiccup for failure to issue
the joint communiqué as the end of Asean annual meeting, Cambodia wants badly
to demonstrate it has a neutral foreign policy towards major powers, especially
towards the US and China.
4. Both Myanmar and Thailand are
anxious to find out if Obama would confirm stopovers in their capitals during
the trip to and from Phnom Penh. Advance security teams from the US have
already visited these countries to prepare grounds for his surprised visits
ahead of the EAS. The trip to three Asean members are historic , especially for
Myanmar. The recent reforms in the former rouge state has won praises in the
world over so much that Obama just cannot ignore. Indeed, the US-Myanmar
relations are on a roller coaster. For him to come this far with visits to
Cambodia and Myanmar without touching on a tarmac in Thailand, a long standing
US ally, would be utterly impossible. To reinforce the pivotal role of
Thailand, US Defense Secretary Leon Penetta is scheduled to stop over in
Bangkok before heading for Siem Riem on15 November and US State Secretary
Hilary Clinton will also visit Bangkok two days on her way to Phnom Penh before
her tenure ends.
5. If there is any US president
that is knowledgeable and appreciative of Asean, it is Obama. Over the past
four years, Obama has developed closed rapports with a high level of comfort
with most of the Asean leaders. In fact, Asean is thinking of scheduling
another round of leaders' meeting in the future with the incumbent US
president. They have met a few times previously with Obama - their encounters
produced substantive results. After all, they gave him the confidence to deal
with the Asean leaders. It is not wrong to say that Obama helps define and
sustain the US role in the relations with Asean.
6. The US rebalancing policy has
won accolades among the Asean leaders. With the incumbent at the White House,
the policy will enter the second phase with intensified US engagements with the
Asean members in all areas. Obama's scheduled visit to Myanmar after the EAS
and its invitation to Naypyidaw to be an observer in the Cobra Gold next year
is a clear indication of Washington's intention to augment its security
cooperation with all the Asean members. This will be a new security toolbox for
the region. With stronger US presence and commitment, Washington-initiated
Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) is gaining grounds as additional Asean members
would like to enter TPP negotiation process. Thailand would be one among them.
Again, Obama's challenger would not focus on Asia as a whole, even though his
predecessor the former President George W Bush did make efforts to formulated
distinctive diplomacy toward Asia and Asean particularly on his second term.
7. Asean wants a US president
with a practical foreign policy towards China. Proximity with the world's
second largest economy does provide both comfort and stress for Asean. The US
as a balancing force is situated in the other part of the world. In the past
when China was poor and underdeveloped, it did not post any threat. Now, Asean
is learning how to cope anew with the world's second largest economy that is
standing tall and proud of its achievements. The Obama Administration's policy
towards China is both competitive and collaborative which augurs well with the
Asean approach to the two super dialogue partners. Asean will benefit from
balanced approaches providing sufficient rooms for them to engage and secure
influence in ways that would increase the regional profile, not dampening it.
8. Asean prefers the US leader
who does not treat Russia as an enemy either as it would have direct impacts on
the overall regional peace and stability. Russia under the third-time President
Vladimir Putin is returning to the region, in particular the former Indochina,
where the former Soviet Union used to reign. Moscow wants closer cooperation
with Asean and is willing to do more to harness their relations. Visits to
Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia, one still can come across remnants of its once
powerful presence. Back in 2005, it was Moscow, which first demonstrated the
eagerness to attend the nascent EAS.
9. With the same US president,
the Asean leaders will have extra time to contemplate on the new Chinese
leaders in place next week. For the past decade, Asean has taken for granted
that China would not act assertively as it would be accommodative with Asean's
interest and remain at best benign. Of late, the disputes in South China Sea
and its consequential have changed this long-standing perception. From now on,
Asean, individually and collectively, would have to decipher the new batch of
younger Chinese leaders and their motives toward the region. Failure to do so
would further deepen mutual suspicion that both sides could not afford to have
at this juncture. At the Asean-China retreat in Pattaya at the end of October,
senior officials from both sides could not agree on the exact date to kick off
the negotiation on code of conduct on South China Sea. While the Asean
officials were soft and positive, China, instead, delivered direct and tough
words over the South China Sea situation by reiterating that China would no
longer hold back - any provocation would be responded in proportional to the
perceived threat by China at the time. This did not bode well for the upcoming
EAS as the issue is likely to be raised along with other territorial disputes
in this part of the world.
10. The Asean leaders, especially
those from the Muslim countries, do not like the US policy under Romney that
wants to fight war with Iran as they have maintained good bilateral relations.
Despite sanctions, some Asean members have continued to trade with Iran.
Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand have extensive economic ties with Iran.
Kavi Chongkittavorn
Business & Investment Opportunities
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