Security experts said this week that Thailand would not lose its
neutrality after the decision to sign a new defence agreement with the United
States during the upcoming visit of President Barack Obama, but the country
must be careful not to be seen as moving too close to the American orbit.
"We need to balance our act
because in recent years Thailand has been moving close to the Chinese sphere of
influence, partly because the US was too engaged elsewhere, namely with the
global war on terrorism and the Middle East," said Chulalongkorn
University's security expert, Professor Panitan Wattanayagorn.
There had been past efforts to
engage with the US, such as when it dispatched troops to Afghanistan and Iraq
to take part in the US-led multinational offensives. These initiatives came out
of the Thai government's budget, not that of the US.
Thailand's involvement was
limited but there were repercussions, said Panitan, pointing to sentiment in
the Muslim-majority southern provinces.
The 2012 Joint Vision Statement
for the Thai-US Defence Alliance is expected to be signed by the two leaders
during Obama's visit, and regional security and enhancing Thai status in the
US-led network alliance is expected to be high on the agenda.
Key conditions in the 2012 Joint
Vision Statement for the Thai-US Defence Alliance are aimed at further
strengthening the partnership in Southeast Asia, building up support for
sustainable regional stability, preparedness for operational readiness in
bilateral and unilateral cooperation, and development of relations,
coordination and cooperation at all levels.
The alliance is part of a bigger
Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) launched nine years ago by then US
president George W Bush to stop the spread of weapons of mass destruction
(WMD). Procrastination on Thailand's part was prompted by concern among
authorities that "the PSI framework would violate the country's sovereignty
and local laws", said Kavi Chongkittavorn, an independent security
analyst.
"And although Thailand's
decision comes a bit too late, nonetheless it still has symbolic value,"
Kavi said.
China is expected to be more
assertive over where Thailand stands as the country moves to recalibrate its
strategic interest.
Panitan said this does not have
to be a zero-sum game as Thailand can set conditions and limitations as to what
the US and China can do on Thai soil.
But the absence of a strong and
unified foreign policy makes the country vulnerable to China's and America's
growing assertiveness, experts have warned.
"We are vulnerable because
we don't have a strong team with a unified position to push Thailand's
strategic interest at the international level," Panitan said.
Analysts said the rise of China
has forced the US to rethink its security approach in the Asia-Pacific region.
So far, American troops have
established a strong presence in Darwin, Australia, and currently the US is
negotiating with Vietnam and Singapore about elevating their respective
bilateral cooperation.
Panitan believes Cambodia could
be a candidate for such an arrangement with the US, but it may not come in the
form of a military-to-military context, but more as non-traditional security
cooperation, possibly in the area of counter narcotics and environmental
issues.
A total of 101 countries have
joined the PSI's international effort to promote the nonproliferation of WMD.
Deputy Government Spokesman
Pakdiharn Himathongkham told reporters after the Tuesday weekly Cabinet meeting
that Obama's visit demonstrated that Thailand and the US were partners for
security in the Asia-Pacific region.
US Defence Secretary Leon
Panetta, who is scheduled to arrive here tomorrow, is looking to boost Thai-US
military cooperation beyond the bilateral cooperation that came into being
during the Cold War era.
Thailand was granted the status
of a major non-Nato ally at the end of 2003.
News Desk
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