In 2008, US President Barack
Obama, in his first term, undertook a something-for-all goodwill trip to the
Middle East, but failed to bring peace or stability to the region.
The recent
vote at the UN to grant Palestinians elevated status further weakened the
position of the US and its allies. The "Arab Spring" that started in
2010 has turned into an Arab nightmare, putting the whole region at risk.
Obama's recent trip to Cambodia
to attend the Asean Summit has cast a shadow over US intentions in the region.
While the US tried to portray the South China Sea as a major regional crisis,
outgoing Chinese premier Hu Jintao, who also joined the summit, showed no
interest in discussing any issue related disputed islands. In fact, he made it
clear that Asean was not the right forum to discuss such issues.
Once again, Asean members
demonstrated their inability to unite to deal with an important regional issue,
and also refrained from discussing other problems of rights, human trafficking,
political and social strife, poverty and inequality in its own backyard. It is
becoming increasingly evident that unless Asean can forge strong unity it may
become subservient to the superpowers, or even irrelevant. A careful
examination of 45 years of its existence indicates that on major regional
issues it has completely failed to act as a unified bloc.
In the last century the US fought
three major wars in this region with very deadly consequences. Many countries
in the region are still suffering from the scars of the Second World War and
the Vietnam and Korean wars. It should be remembered that for most of last
century Western countries exploited the Asia-Pacific region for their own
political and economic interests.
The Western countries that
dominate powerful global bodies such as the United Nations, G-7, WTO, IMF and
World Bank are now on the verge of economic collapse. The forces of
colonisation are now replaced by the forces globalisation. Once again, Western
powers are rushing to cash in on the region's precious human capital, natural
resources and growing prosperity.
We are living in interesting
times. Asean is expecting huge investments from its immediate neighbour, China.
India is also exerting its political and economic influence in the region.
Although the Asean economy is doing better, it still relies heavily on the US
and European countries. In this context, we need to realise that in a
globalized economy "beggars cannot be choosers".
How can Asean oppose China, the
US or EU when it wants huge trade benefits from them? While being a part of a
bloc, the member countries are also strengthening their own unilateral economic
ties with the superpowers. Can Asean deal with the chasm created by the
superpowers without putting its own existence in danger? Can Asean exist on its
own terms as a unified bloc? So far, it does not look like.
When the big powers intrude on a
regional bloc, they tactfully disrupt its unity through their own unilateral
and multilateral ties and treaties.
In this regard, there is
something important to learn from the BRICS countries, which were once touted
as a power bloc to counter Western power. BRICS has become completely
irrelevant within a very short span of time. The reasons are obvious: nations
with poor leadership and disjointed policies cannot forge a powerful and
unified bloc. Asean is becoming a failure because of its inability to unite and
deal with important issues related to South China Sea.
To remain viable and strong,
Asean must learn from the current financial crises in the US and EU. The
"fiscal cliff" caused by consumer capitalism in the US is starting to
rear its ugly head in the region. A credit card-based consumer economy, which
crippled Western countries, is now spreading like wildfire in the region.
Mindless marketing schemes,
wasteful mega projects and populist government policies in the region have the
potential to drastically reduce the revenue needed to sustain the very sectors
that are being targeted for growth.
As mentioned, Barack Obama's
first-term outing in the Middle East was a failure. In his recent visit to
Thailand, he said that "the US is a Pacific power". In other words,
the US will meddle in Asean affairs.
However, the rise of China and
India poses serious challenges to the US. There is a saying in US that
"all politics is local". Hence the US should recognise that its naval
presence in Asian seas may not be enough to contain China.
It is becoming clear that
dominance on the world stage cannot be achieved by focusing on military
hardware, open sea lanes and trade routes. Politicians and leaders in the
public and private sectors within Asean need to work on communication skills,
to match or do better than their Western counterparts. A lack of young leaders
with excellent communication skills is a missing link in Asean polity. For a
nation to be seen as a power, it needs assertive leaders who can successfully
engage in world affairs.
Over the last 50 years, Japan,
South Korea and Taiwan became very successful economies, but they had no
political clout on the world stage. Leaders from these countries largely
remained subservient to Western powers. Even the appointment of Ban Ki-moon, a
South Korean, as secretary general of the UN in 2007 was spearheaded by the US.
Similarly, the gunboat diplomacy being adopted by Japan to resolve the South
China Sea disputes will not yield positive results.
It would be fair to say that in
the last decade Asean has made strides in resolving trade and tariff issues
across the region. Changes in immigration policies and visa regulations have
benefited the travel sector and improved the mobility of ordinary citizens in
the region. However, Asean will need a new crop of leaders who can lead on the
world stage and influence global events and policies.
During his tenure as Asean
secretary-general, Surin Pitsuwan of Thailand has tried hard to bring Asean
into the limelight. Without assertive leaders like him, Asean is destined to
become weaker or irrelevant. For most of its existence over the last 45 years
Asean has remained a toothless organisation. But with young and assertive
leaders it could counter the rising power of the US and China in the region.
However, its increasing
dependence on China, the US and EU for trade and regional security will have
negative consequences for its own existence as a bloc. In this context, the
South China Sea could become a choke point with disastrous consequences for the
region.
Kuldeep Nagi
Business & Investment Opportunities
Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Health care and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN 's area. We are currently changing the platform of www.yourvietnamexpert.com, if any request, please, contact directly Dr Christian SIODMAK, business strategist, owner and CEO of SBC at christian.siodmak@gmail.com. Many thanks.
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