Indian Navy Chief Admiral D.K. Joshi's recent comment that India will
protect its interests in the South China Sea by "sending forces" if
need be, has created consternation in the region and added to the tensions
generated by the countries already laying claim to various parts of the sea.
"When the requirement is
there, for example, in situations where our country's interests are
involved...we will be required to go there and we are prepared for that,"
Joshi told a news conference. "Now, are we preparing for it? Are we having
exercises of that nature? The short answer is yes."
The admiral's statements are
regarded as an expression of Delhi's newfound resolve to act as a serious
regional 'balancer' and underscores a growing appetite to expand its footprint
in a region that hitherto has been viewed as outside its core interests. At the
moment, the equation between the two navies is vastly in China's favor, with
the Indian navy possessing140-plus warships compared with 750 for the Chinese,
whose navy is not only far bigger but more sophisticated.
"The South China Sea is
Asia's most politically volatile spot, said political scientist Vipin Bhambri
of Jawaharlal Nehru University. "It is also rich in oil and gas - and more
than half the world's oil-tanker traffic passes through it. The region's
salience makes it tough for Asian nations to overlook any frisson of
development in its waters,"
China has reacted with
uncharacteristic reserve. Asked about Admiral Joshi's comments this week, a
spokesperson for China's Foreign Ministry told the media, "China opposes
unilateral oil and gas development in disputed waters of the South China Sea.
We hope that concerned countries respect China's position and rights, and respect
efforts made through bilateral talks to resolve disputes."
Despite this veneer of restraint,
however, there's no denying that regional dynamics are increasingly complicated
in the area with parts of South China Sea also being claimed by the Philippines,
Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan. Against this backdrop, China's recent
decision to empower the police in the Hainan province, which administers the
South China Sea for China, to intercept foreign ships and seize vessels in
sea's disputed waters from 1 January has considerably ratcheted up the tension.
According to the rules, the police can take necessary measures to stop
international ships or "to force them into changing or reversing
course."
It is in the disputed waters of
Hainan province where India's interest lie. India's ONGC Videsh Ltd has been
given the oil block number 128 by Vietnam for joint exploration. ONGC Videsh
has three offshore deepwater blocks on the southern Vietnamese coast, and has
invested US$600 million in oil and gas exploration in them. ONGC Videsh has
operations in 15 countries, where it is engaged in exploration work on 31
projects.
"The Hainan move is another
step in China's bid to strengthen its hold over much of the sea, which includes
crucial international shipping routes which see enormous global trade
activity," a senior official at the Ministry of Defense told Asia
Sentinel.
These developments are also being
viewed against the backdrop of already simmering discontent between Beijing and
Delhi, which signed an agreement with Vietnam in October 2011 to expand and
promote oil exploration in the sea and reconfirmed its decision to carry on
despite the Chinese challenge to India's presence on the waters. China has also
been locked in a series of disputes over strategic islands in the region,
including with Vietnam and the Philippines over the Spratly and Paracel islet
chains.
Against these developments, any
display of naval assertiveness by India in the South China Sea would fuel
concern that the navies of the two rapidly growing nations are fighting for
more control over the sea.
China is viewing India growing
engagement in East and South-east Asia with suspicion, issuing a diplomatic
protest to India in November 2011, underlining that its permission should be sought
for exploration in the two blocks and that without it, ONGC's activities would
be considered 'illegal'. Vietnam, meanwhile underlined the 1982 UN Convention
on the Law of the Sea to claim its sovereign rights over the two blocks being
explored.
India decided to go by Vietnam's
claims and ignore China's objections. China has since been objecting to the
Indian exploration projects, claiming that the territory comes under its
sovereignty. India continues to maintain that its exploration projects in the
region are purely commercial.
India, the third largest economy
in Asia, is the fourth biggest spender on defense in the Indo-Pacific after the
United States, China and Japan. To prevent further escalation of tension in an
already fraught region, analysts advise that Delhi urgently articulate when and
under what conditions would it be willing to use its military assets.
This is also vital because The
Eastern Naval Command – which governs India's eastern seaboard and is likely to
play a key role when the Navy is deployed in South China Sea – is being
reinforced.
Ironically, despite growing
economic engagement between Beijing and Delhi (bilateral trade is set to touch
US$100 billion by 2015), political tensions have only intensified between the
two Asian neighbors, especially in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Analysts
trace the hostility back to 1962 when the two fought a bloody war.
With their growing and globalized
economies, China and India will increasingly be relying on the seas to fulfill
their trade and maritime ambitions. Both are building large navies too.
According to a Defense Ministry source, the Indian Navy has fortified itself
with as many as 15 ships over the last three years. This includes a
leasedAkulla II class nuclear submarine from Russia. Delhi will also soon take
delivery of the much-delayed Russian aircraft carrier retrofitted for Indian
use, the INS Vikramaditya. Other ships include three "stealth"
frigates of the Shivalik class, resupply tankers and fast attack boats.
Against this complex backdrop, it
can only be hoped that India and China act with restraint rather than indulge
in any impulsive action that may threaten regional geopolitical peace and
stability.
Neeta Lal
Business & Investment Opportunities
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