Papua New Guinea’s dynamic economic growth over the past decade has
created an appetite for big-picture trade and diplomatic ties, symbolized by
its ongoing attempts to join the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. But
PNG’s requests, which have persisted since it was granted observer status in
1976, have so far been met with a firm but polite “no.”
While not explicit, the reasons
behind Asean’s position are not hard to discern. Even the most cursory glance
at PNG’s political history since 1975 reveals a steady catalogue of political
crises. For example, it was not until 2007 that a PNG government first
navigated the vote-of-no-confidence chicane to complete a full five-year term
in office. Crime, too, is cited by some commentators as a further reason for
non-accession, implying concerns over civil unrest as opposed to high incidences
of burglary and public violence — sullen accolades for which PNG is
unfortunately becoming well known internationally.
With a small police force to
counter its internal disruptions, and an even smaller military, PNG’s raw
strategic benefit to Asean also appears slim. If recent antagonisms in the
Scarborough Shoal serve as any blueprint for membership criteria, Asean clearly
requires nations that bring strategic muscle, not baggage. Additionally, the
expanded Asean member list, despite being good for business, has recently
undermined collective decisions. When Asean formed in 1967 it had five member
states. Numbers have now doubled, naturally making consensus difficult.
While Asean may not currently be
in the business of recruiting new members, this has not stopped PNG from
knocking on its door. As far back as the 1980s, former PNG Prime Minister
Michael Somare was pressing for Asean membership — a bid he had clearly not
abandoned when, in 2009, he approached then Philippines President Gloria Arroyo
with a request for accession. PNG leaders of all stripes, in fact, have spent
decades on the diplomatic treadmill sounding out support for entry into the
exclusive body.
Amid the setbacks, however, it is
worth taking stock of what PNG could actually bring to Asean. Here, one can
note two broad contributions.
The first is growth. A
little-known fact about PNG is that it has, due to its resource endowment, been
one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. With strong growth forecast
over the medium term, such an attribute would certainly add to, and not
diminish, its economic contribution to the important regional body. China,
naturally, has taken notice, leaping up PNG’s bilateral trade table to become
its second-largest trading partner (but still well behind Australia). Thus, for
Asean, there may be some sense in fully welcoming PNG into its orbit, rather
than leaving the country exposed to greater Chinese engagement and influence —
a relationship that will grow considerably in the coming years.
PNG’s second potential
contribution to Asean is a strong commitment to the principle of
non-interference. Over the years, PNG’s political leaders have closely guarded
the country’s sovereignty. This was illustrated most recently in August 2012,
when former deputy prime minister Belden Namah called for the expulsion of the
Australian high commissioner for comments he purportedly made supporting the
re-election of PNG’s prime minister, Peter O’Neill. As Namah said at the time:
“He should be recalled immediately, because he interfered with PNG’s
sovereignty, by deliberately trying to influence the election and the process
of parliament electing the prime minister.” Whether or not Namah’s comments had
any validity, they indicate PNG’s firm respect for sovereignty, not only for
its own borders, but also for the borders of its neighbors. Such a
characteristic would be quietly welcomed inside the Asean arena.
In highlighting PNG’s potential
contributions, however, one must not gloss over some of its recent foreign policy
shortcomings. The 2006 “Moti Affair,” which resulted in the PNG government
providing diplomatic cover to Julian Moti, the Solomon Islands attorney general
wanted for questioning by the Australian government, understandably provoked a
moratorium on ministerial contact with Australia — its largest aid donor and
key partner.
One must also recognize the
relative infancy of PNG’s foreign policy and its slow but measured progression.
In hearing accounts from the 1980s, for example, when Foreign Minister Rabbie
Namaliu used to exchange table-thumps over border disputes with his Indonesian
counterpart, it is clear that relations with neighbors have improved somewhat.
Indonesia is now reportedly quite favorable to PNG’s Asean accession.
More broadly, as PNG grows and
looks to expand its reach overseas, the country will need to improve how it
articulates its foreign policy. Many documents that express PNG’s diplomatic
and trade intentions, remain unpublished or inaccessible. Together with
improving its security situation and political stability, this situation must
change if PNG’s Asean hope is to be realized. To a semi-informed onlooker,
PNG’s Asean bid looks very similar to Turkey’s endless audition for European
Union membership — slow, frustrating and increasingly uncertain. But, in the
realm of international relations, unlikelier things have happened.
Sean Jacobs
Business & Investment Opportunities
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