Talk of Japanese decline sheds little light on the strengths and
weaknesses of the country-- or how its problems can be solved.
Is Japan in decline? Frankly I
don’t think that spending a lot of time trying to answer that question is worth
the effort.
Japan is declining in some
respects and in other important ways it is not declining at all. It is well
known that Japan’s relative standing in the hierarchy of the world’s economies
has declined. Japan as number two has given way to a Japan that is number
three. But would you prefer to live in the number two economy China or the
number three economy Japan? If you think about living standards and the quality
of the air you breathe, the water you drink and the food you eat, the health
care and other social services you receive, and the number of years you can
expect to live, the answer is obvious: better to live in a “declining” Japan
than in a rising China.
More pertinent to the decline
issue, is Japan’s diminished stature as an economic superpower really a matter
of decline or the consequence of the ability of other countries to grow richer?
The share of global GNP occupied by both the United States and Japan has
declined thanks to the ability of other countries to emerge from abject
poverty. That is good news not only for the people of those countries but for
the United States and Japan as well, who have access to inexpensively priced
goods and new markets for their exports.
The declinist narrative
exaggerates Japan’s economic so-called decline because it fails to take into
account the one indisputable aspect of Japan’s decline which is the decline of
the number of Japanese. Has Japan’s economy performed notably worse than other
advanced economies over the past twenty years? No, especially if you compare
GDP growth per capita or per employee. Over two decades of “stagnation” Japan
has grown, living standards have continued to increase and unemployment has
been kept low. While inequality has increased, the gross disparities that we
see in the United States have no parallel in Japan. Japan is not as
economically prosperous as it might have been if it had chosen a different mix
of economic policies but now that the rest of the industrialized world is
contending with high unemployment, huge budget deficits, intense pressures to
cut back on welfare state programs, and the risk of deflation, Japan does not
look so bad. If it is in decline it is not alone.
What about something we might
call the nation’s social health. In terms of social cohesion, sense of
community, and general civility, the Tohoku disaster showed the world how
strong Japan is. Whatever political problems were revealed by the government
response to the Tohoku tragedy, they pale by comparison with the
self-discipline, restraint, outpouring of goodwill, and cooperation that
Japanese people showed each other—and the welcoming attitude with which they
greeted foreign assistance. And it is not only in rural areas like the Tohoku
disaster zone in which these social bonds are strong. In urban Japan as well,
cleanliness, low crime rates, and basic good manners still make Japanese cities
like Tokyo some of the world’s most comfortable, civilized places to live.
Some people talk of Japan’s
increasing inward focus, especially among young people, suggesting that there
has been a decline in cosmopolitan attitudes. For someone who has been around
Japan for as long as I have this is an especially puzzling observation. Has the
number of Japanese who are fluent in English declined? No, quite to the
contrary, there are more people comfortable in English and comfortable in
non-Japanese settings today than ever before. Are young people becoming more
inward looking? There is little evidence to support such a supposition. The
number of Japanese who go abroad to study has not declined as a percentage of
their age group. What gives the impression of inward lookingness is that the
total number of people, including especially young people, has declined and
that fewer of those who do venture abroad come to the United States. They are
going to China and South Korea and to English speaking countries where tuition
and living costs are lower than in the United States and where the competition
to get into a university is not as intense. Japan’s problem is that too many
people in the older generations remain inward looking, robbing young people of
the incentives to take risks and do unconventional things.
What about Japan’s international
role? The declinist debate does not shed much light on the Japanese situation.
Has Japan’s ability to contribute militarily to its own defense and to regional
security declined? Its defense budget has gone down every year for the past
eleven but the roles and missions of the Self-Defense Forces has grown as has
their ability to carry them out.
Economically Japan is still one
of the world’s great trading and investing nations. Globalization and a strong
yen have led Japanese companies to move more and more of their production out
of Japan and hire more foreign nationals to help run their companies. Does
Japan have economic problems? Of course. The once fabled Japanese electronics
industry, to cite just one example, is on the ropes: just look at the problems
that beset Sony, Sharp, and Panasonic. Japanese industry and government no
doubt need to make some bold policy changes. What country does not need to make
bold policy changes?
Demography may be robbing Japan
of some of its vitality. Japan seems tired which should not be so surprising
seeing that it is becoming more and more a country of older people; alas,
elderly people tend to get tired. But this too is hardly a uniquely Japanese
problem. Immigration brings vitality to the United States but most countries in
Europe as well as South Korea, China, and many others face a demographic
reality similar to Japan’s.
The declinist debate is a
diversion. What can we conclude from deciding that Japan, or the United States,
is or is not in decline? Does a conclusion that the United States is not in
decline mean that it can accomplish whatever it sets out to achieve? Certainly
not. Washington could not win the Korean or Vietnam Wars when it had
unparalleled power nor could it consolidate the unipolar moment following the
collapse of the Soviet Union to form a new stable basis for managing the
international system. Japan is not alone in having lots of problems to contend
with. It is probably a good idea to focus on what these are, how they might be
resolved, and what the strengths the society has to bring to bear in grappling
with them, and put the declinist debate to rest.
Gerald L. Curtis
Business & Investment Opportunities
Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Health care and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN 's area. We are currently changing the platform of www.yourvietnamexpert.com, if any request, please, contact directly Dr Christian SIODMAK, business strategist, owner and CEO of SBC at christian.siodmak@gmail.com. Many thanks.
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