On Sunday 9 December, an anti-China protest broke out on the streets of
two major cities in Vietnam.
According to what has been
reported by The Guardian, authorities initially allowed about 200 protesters to
go on a march but later ordered them to disperse and arrested those who
refused.
China’s Global Times, a paper
that usually expresses nationalistic views, has published an article saying
that protests in Vietnam were actually directed against Hanoi and that the
South China Sea issue was just an excuse to get to the streets.
This episode is just the latest
development in a dispute involving almost the entire South East Asian region,
as China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei. All
have conflicting claims over this corner of the Pacific Ocean.
Behind the confrontation are two
interrelated issues. On the one hand, there are the vast gas and oil resources.
Chinese sources estimate undiscovered oil resources to be between 70 and 160
billion barrels of oil, while the US Energy Information Administration claims
that probable and proven gas deposits may be between 1 and 2 trillion cubic
feet. On the other hand, nationalistic feelings are deeply rooted in the area,
making any agreement hard to reach. The lack of cooperation, in turn, increases
the risk of miscalculations in dealing with partners.
In July, the crisis claimed its
first victim, the ASEAN summit, which ended without a final resolution for the
first time in its 45-year history because of internal divisions on the issue of
maritime rights. ASEAN Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan said that such a
failure was unprecedented.
More recently, in November,
another heated discussion began when Beijing decided to print on Chinese
passports a national map that included the South China Sea (as well as
territories disputed with India). Vietnam has overcome the issue by issuing
visas on a separate paper sheet.
External powers are also playing
a role. As it pivots to Asia, the US is more or less openly backing the
Philippines, while last Spring Russia’s Gazprom announced a joint venture with
state-owned PetroVietnam for exploring offshore oil reserves. Despite the fact
that the area they intend to work on is not disputed, The Global Times bitterly
commented: “The intention is clear that Vietnam is strengthening cooperation with
Russia to go up against China in the territorial disputes.”
India, too, is getting closer to
Vietnam. In October 2011, ONGC Videsh Ltd. declared it had signed a three-year
pact with PetroVietnam for long-term cooperation in the oil and gas industry. New
Delhi seems to attach significant importance to such a presence in the area and
has recently affirmed to be ready to take action if her interests are under
threat. On December 3, Indian Navy Chief Admiral D.K Joshi has announced that
“not that we expect to be in those waters very frequently, but when the
requirement is there for situations where the country’s interests are involved,
for example ONGC Videsh, we will be required to go there and we are prepared
for that.”
Business & Investment Opportunities
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