Simon Tay says while Japan’s re-energised interest in Southeast Asia is
to be welcomed, Asean must keep the focus on the economy and resist being
dragged into an anti-China coalition
Everyone's pivoting to Asia, even
Asians. After the Barack Obama administration's rebalancing and Australia's
white-paper pledge to give more emphasis to the region, here comes Japan. The
recent visit to Southeast Asia by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
underscores this.
Rather than heading to
Washington, his first overseas trip was to Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia. His
foreign minister, Fumio Kishida, preceded him by visiting the Philippines,
Singapore and Brunei, the current chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
As the first Asian nation to
modernise, Japan has always been important to the region. In the second world
war, conquest mixed with an anti-colonial awakening helped end empires and
shape nationalism. In the decades since, Southeast Asia has welcomed Japan
without the historical resentment seen in Korea and China.
But this new emphasis that the
Abe government brings must be met with some reservation. It comes amid tensions
between Japan and China over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. This has already spilled
over into street riots, and had an impact on trade and financial co-operation
between the region's two largest economies. Many suggest that reaching out to
Asean is Japan's way of trying to align others to stand up to China.
The Philippines greeted the Abe
initiative by welcoming Japan to rearm and that was reciprocated with a promise
to provide multi-role vessels to enhance the Philippine coast guard. This was
predictable, as the Benigno Aquino government was involved in a nervy stand-off
with Chinese vessels over Scarborough Shoal last year.
But this cannot and should not be
the response for others in the region.
The territorial disputes in the
South China Sea between China and four Asean member states - Vietnam, Malaysia
and Brunei as well as the Philippines - are disconnected and considerably
different in terms of their legal merits from the Senkaku/Diaoyu dispute.
Moreover, after Cambodia's partisan behaviour last year while serving as Asean
chairman, the 10-nation group must focus on unity and neutrality.
Asean must not be dragged into an
anti-China coalition with Japan. Instead, the group as a whole must more calmly
manage the differences and rebuild trust with Beijing as a basis from which to
negotiate an agreed code of conduct.
The nuances of Japanese rhetoric
must therefore be watched. Take, for example, Abe's comments when visiting
Jakarta. While agreeing that international law is important to the settlement
of disputes, he characterised the region as an "open ocean" and called
on Japan and Asean to "protect this with all our might".
Rather than might and military
means, Japan's re-engagement with Asean should emphasise the economic
dimension. In 2011, Japan's direct investment in Asean countries was about 1.55
trillion yen (about HK$155 billion at exchange rates then) - more than the 1.01
trillion yen invested in China.
Further, Asean has launched
negotiations for a regional comprehensive economic partnership with its
partners, and Japanese support for the undertaking would be most welcome.
Japan is also well placed to
render assistance to Asean efforts to develop infrastructure and connectivity.
Take Myanmar, for instance, which has opened its doors to foreign investment,
in an effort to end isolation and Chinese dominance.
The Abe administration has
already forgiven about US$6 billion of loans to Myanmar, and pledged its
willingness to lend more. Such efforts can support the keen interest from
Japanese companies to start up projects there, as well as the many, real needs
in this strategically placed Asean member.
Asean would be well advised to
monitor how Abe, noted for his nationalistic instincts, manages relations with
China. If Tokyo recognises the deep Sino-Japanese interdependence, this will
reassure and stabilise the region. One sign will be whether Tokyo will go ahead
with negotiations on a northeast Asian trade pact.
Another key factor will be the
Abe government's initiatives to restart the Japanese economy - using policies
that are controversial in their own right.
The world's third-largest economy
has been, and can again be, a major factor in the growth of the region. A more
outward-looking and dynamic Japan can potentially open up a new phase of
relations with Asean. But if the Abe administration is aggressively anti-Chinese,
this will be a negative factor in regional relations, which have grown more
difficult in recent years.
After the decades of no and slow
growth, there has been a tendency of some to look past Japan, especially as
leaders came and went in rapid succession. Now, however, what the Abe
administration does must be watched by other Asians with both hope and concern.
Simon Tay
Simon Tay is chairman of the Singapore Institute of International
Affairs and an associate professor at the National University of Singapore
Faculty of Law. He is the author of Asia Alone: The Dangerous Post Crisis
Divide from America
Business & Investment Opportunities
Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Health care and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN 's area. We are currently changing the platform of www.yourvietnamexpert.com, if any request, please, contact directly Dr Christian SIODMAK, business strategist, owner and CEO of SBC at christian.siodmak@gmail.com. Many thanks.
No comments:
Post a Comment