It is slow trading in Asia as the New Year festival continues,
The Philippines is likely to
outperform consensus growth forecasts this year with the political and reform
environment looking ripe for the implementation of more changes and the world
economy appearing to be on the mend, New York-based think tank Global Source
said.
But behind the surging
confidence, the think tank said there were emerging questions about the
sustainability of the economy’s growth as the unresolved crisis in the West
meant that the country would have to rely on internal sources of growth.
In a Feb. 10 commentary dated
“High on Snake Blood” written by economists Romeo Bernardo and Marie-Christine
Tang, Global Source projected the Philippines gross domestic product (GDP)
growth at 6.1 percent this 2013, upgrading its previous forecast of 5 percent.
This upgraded forecast is more optimistic than the 5.6 percent consensus
forecast based on FocusEconomics Consensus Economics albeit slower than the
actual 6.6 percent attained by the country last year.
The slightly slower growth seen
for this year factors in weak external growth and a strong local currency
weighing down on exports.
For 2014, Global Source expects a
growth of 5.8 percent versus the 5.7 percent consensus forecast.
Local stocks started the first
trading day of the Year of the Water Snake with a bang, allowing the main index
to touch 6,500 for the first time, before retreating at close.
The main-share Philippine Stock
Exchange index ended 0.66 points or 0.01 percent lower at 6,458.01 after
hitting a new record intra-day peak of 6,500.08.
“Now, we cannot discount the fact
that the market may either pause or do a slight pullback, say close to 6,200 (-
4.6 percent) or a bear-case scenario close to psychological support at 6,000 (-
7.7 percent),” said DA Market Securities in its research note issued on Monday.
The PSEi has risen by three times
since bottoming out in 2008 during the US-epicentered global financial crisis.
The Stock Exchange of Thailand
main index lost 8.19 points, or 0.55%, to close at 1,489.11 points at the end
of trading session on Monday afternoon. The trade value was 49.55 billion baht,
with 14.88 billion shares traded.
The SET50 index ended at 986.18
points, down 9.72 points, or 0.98%, with a total trade value of 19.46 billion
baht.
The SET100 index fell 17.49
points, or 0.79%, to stand at 2,201.05 points, with a total turnover of 30.97
billion baht.
The SETHD index went down 14.03
points, or 1.09%, to stand at 1,269.85 points, with total trade value of 9.02
billion baht.
The MAI index dropped 5.39
points, or 1.19%, to close at 447.05 points, with total transaction value of
2.84 billion baht.
Top five most active values were
as follows;
BLAND stood at 2.02 baht, up 0.10
baht (5.21%),
BMCL stood at 1.66 baht, up 0.26
baht (18.57%),
PTT stood at 347.00 baht, down
3.00 baht (0.86%),
UMI stood at 17.90 baht, up 2.00
baht (12.58%), and
TRUE stood at 7.15 baht, up 0.25
baht (3.62%).
The outlook on Indonesia’s stock
market remains positive at JP Morgan Equity Research, which raised its
recommendation on the market, even as the benchmark stock index slipped from a
record high.
The securities firm upgraded
Indonesia’s market rating to overweight, citing improved thermal coal and palm
oil prices, stable economic momentum and attractive fundamentals. The
overweight rating suggests that investors hold more shares in Indonesia in their
model portfolio.
“Our commodity team forecasts
stabilization in coal and palm oil prices. J.P. Morgan’s economics team
forecasts a current account surplus in 2013. The key assumptions are lower
refined petroleum product imports and higher gas exports,” the research house
said on Friday. “The consensus is more optimistic.”
With this upgrade, Indonesia
joins India, Thailand and the Philippines as countries that have an overweight
rating from JP Morgan. South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Australia are rated
underweight.
“As is the situation in our other
EM overweights [India, Mexico, Thailand and the Philippines] ex Turkey, we
think Indonesia is a fairly-priced growth market. Key sectors in Indonesia
trade on par or at a slight discount to Asean.”
JP Morgan also remained bullish
on financials and industrials sectors, but was cautious on technology hardware
and energy companies
Shayne Heffernan
Business & Investment Opportunities
Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Health care and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN 's area. We are currently changing the platform of www.yourvietnamexpert.com, if any request, please, contact directly Dr Christian SIODMAK, business strategist, owner and CEO of SBC at christian.siodmak@gmail.com. Many thanks.
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