Former US diplomat Stapleton Roy warns against strategic confrontation
between Washington and Beijing
With China's leadership in
transition and incoming Secretary of State John Kerry heading a new foreign
policy team in the second Obama administration, leaders in both countries must
face a "frightening array of domestic and foreign policy problems" in
managing their vital relationship, longtime senior US diplomat J. Stapleton Roy
said in a Feb. 13 address at the East-West Center in Hawaii. (See the video of
Roy's speech.)
"No task is going to be more
important than trying to arrest the current drift in US-China relations toward
strategic rivalry," he said. "If leaders in both countries fail to
deal with this issue, there is a strong possibility that tensions will rise and
undermine the benign climate that has been so important in producing the Asian
economic miracle - and to a significant degree, political miracle - over the
past 30 years."
Roy, who served as US ambassador
to China from 1991 to 1995, said the two nations are "locked in the
traditional problem of an established power facing a rising power, and we know
from historical precedent that competitive factors that emerge in such
situations often result in bloody wars." The good news, he said, is that
"leaders in both countries are aware of the historical precedents and are
determined to not let history repeat itself."
While top leaders on both sides
have recognized the need to work together toward a stable balance between
cooperation and competition, Roy said, neither country has been able to
implement this, and "it remains to be seen if it is even possible to
establish this new type of relationship."
Roy said opinion polls over the
last couple of years have shown a dramatic increase in the percentage of
Chinese citizens and officials who view relations with the US as characterized
by hostility rather than cooperation. During the same period, he said, US polls
indicate that "we don't think of China in the same way."
"This is something we need
to be concerned about," he said, "because the tensions and passions
on the other side are stronger than they are on our side, and this requires
careful management."
While incoming Chinese President
Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqian have already declared their interest in
implementing further market reforms and reining in pervasive corruption, Roy
said, "the Communist Party may lack the legitimacy and will to force through
the far-reaching reforms that are needed against the influence of special
interests, especially large state-owned businesses. One can reasonably doubt if
a party corrupted by wealth at the highest level can carry out the kind of
fundamental systemic reforms that are necessary."
In addition, he said, China's new
leaders will be faced with a litany of internal difficulties that
"illustrate why it would still be foolish to postulate that the 21st
century will belong to China." These include what even outgoing premier
Wen Jiabao has characterized as an "unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated
and unsustainable" economy, Roy said, along with a rapidly aging
population, slowing economic growth, and what is known as the "middle
income trap," when a rising economy loses the competitive advantage of
low-cost labor as it climbs the income scale.
"Wages in China have been
rising rapidly, especially for skilled labor," Roy said. "So they
have to substitute something else, such as innovation or efficiency."
Historically, he said, "over 100 countries have reached the middle income
trap, and 86 percent failed to get out of it. They grow, then reach a certain
level and stall out. China has to find way to avoid this, and that's a big
challenge."
Another huge issue, Roy said, is
that "rising nationalism is pushing China toward a more assertive
international style and enmeshing it in difficulties with a lot of its
neighbors. This has the potential to undermine the benign international
environment that has underpinned the dramatic accomplishments China has
made."
China's more assertive recent
behavior is "both typical and predictable for a rising power," he
said. "But China is finding that when it expresses this nationalism
through more assertive behavior, its neighbors all show solidarity with the US,
which is not what China is trying to accomplish. And this is causing resentment
in China, because they find that they can't use their growing power effectively
as a result of the negative consequences."
This could actually prove to be a
positive phenomenon for the US, he said, "because if we're skillful enough
to understand this dynamic, we are in a position to constrain China when it's
behaving irresponsibly and cooperate with it when it behaves responsibly."
"China is not the Soviet
Union," he said. "China's rise has benefitted all of the countries
around it, and as a result they don't want a containment policy; they want
responsible behavior by China so they can expand economic and trade relations,
which already dwarf their relations with other countries. But when China
behaves badly, then they want the United States to be present because they
can't deal with China on their own. It's a dynamic that skillful diplomacy
should be able to take advantage from."
With China now "locked in a
web of disputes" with its neighbors over small but potentially
resource-rich islands in the region, Roy said, "the United States finds
itself in the awkward situation of trying to reassure our allies at the same
time we try to restrain their behavior, because we don't want tiny little
islands in the western Pacific to end up bringing us into a great-power
confrontation with China."
The threat of such hostility is
real, he said, and "these disputes are having direct impact on US-China
relations - but it's an asymmetrical impact, because Americans basically don't
care about these islands. But in China it is an issue of great nationalist
importance, as it is for Japan, the Philippines and other claimants."
Such issues, he said, illustrate
the complexity of trying to manage this vitally important relationship: "A
stronger China will undoubtedly see itself as again becoming a central regional
player, but the United States intends to remain actively engaged in East Asia,
where we have formal alliances and strategic ties throughout the region."
The question for leaders of both
countries, Roy said, is whether they can find a solution to this conundrum. As
of now, he said, "there is a disconnect between the high-level desire on
both sides not to have our relationship drift toward rivalry and confrontation,
and the way we're actually behaving, which is driving us in that
direction."
Open military conflict is
unlikely and preventable, he said, but just the threat of it could cause a
costly "military capabilities competition" for decades to come, at a
time when the US is already facing budget cuts.
"Chinese and US declared
strategic goals and their actions are not yet in conformity with each
other," Roy said. "In my mind, this is the central strategic
challenge in the US-China relationship, and if we don't address it
forthrightly, it will be more difficult to manage in the future."
The East-West Wire
(The East-West Wire is a news, commentary, and analysis service provided
by the East-West Center in Honolulu.)
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