As democratic transitions in several authoritarian countries have shown,
formerly oppressed opposition leaders such as Nelson Mandela in South Africa
and Viktor Andriyovych in Ukraine have later become the head of states in new
democratic governments.
Those leaders successfully
cemented democracy in place by building up institutions in the executive,
legislature and judiciary that earlier rights-curbing regimes never allowed to
take root.
A similar though in many ways different
transition is now tentatively underway in Myanmar, which was ruled by
successive despotic military regimes for nearly five decades until a
quasi-civilian government now led by President Thein Sein was elected in 2010.
Pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi and members of her National League for
Democracy (NLD) party entered parliament in small numbers through by-elections
held last April.
Suu Kyi and the NLD had boycotted
the 2010 polls as they said these were rigged in favor of military-backed candidates,
and the party was later outlawed for its non-participation.
That was rolled back in 2011,
paving the way for Suu Kyi and her party to win 43 of the 44 seats it contested
in by elections in 2012, giving the NLD a 6.4% share of the seats in parliament.
With new general elections set
for 2015, many believe Suu Kyi and the NLD will win in a landslide against the
now ruling military-aligned United Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) if
the polls are held freely and fairly. The NLD overwhelmingly won elections held
in 1990, taking 80% of the seats, but the military annulled the results and
maintained its iron-clad grip on power.
The NLD held its first National
Congress in over 25 years in Yangon on March 9-10, during which Suu Kyi was
re-elected party chairwoman, a position she has held since being released from
house arrest after the 2010 elections. The Nobel Peace Prize laureate spent 15
of the previous 21 years under house arrest while many of her NLD members were
imprisoned and harassed under various draconian laws against political
association and activities.
Suu Kyi has stated her desire to
become president in 2015. But there are still three big obstacles to that be
outcome. First, how can she overcome the constitutional provision that bars any
Myanmar citizen whose spouse or children have foreign citizenship from assuming
the presidency (Suu Kyi's late husband was a British citizen)? Second, how
would the military, which has yet to be reformed and harbors suspicions about
the transition to democracy, respond to Suu Kyi's civilian leadership? Third,
will Suu Kyi be able to convince other military-linked candidates, including
incumbent President Thein Sein and Lower House Speaker Shwe Mann, to pave the
way for her to contest the 2015 polls?
Thein Sein stated at at the Asia
Society in New York during his trip to the United Nations General Assembly in
late 2012 that he would consider serving a second term if the people wanted him
to stay. He had previously said that he would serve only one five-year term due
to health reasons. He now uses a pacemaker and presumably his health has
significantly improved. At the same time, he indicated that Suu Kyi could take
the presidency if the people elect her.
Thein Sein will no doubt campaign
on his reform credentials, including his government's negotiations towards
ceasefires with various ethnic minority rebel groups, successful outreach to
the wider world, especially the West, after decades of international isolation,
and economic policies that have increased government salaries, reduced mobile
phone costs and outlined plans for poverty reduction. A mass of people recently
gathered at Yangon international airport to welcome Thein Sein home after a
recent foreign tour, proof to some of the president's rising grass roots
popularity.
Constitutional challenge
Suu Kyi's more pressing political
challenge, however, will be to amend the 2008 constitution in a way that allows
her to assume the presidency before the 2015 polls. There are signs that the
military-dominated parliament may consider certain amendments, though not
necessarily the current restrictions on the presidency. On March 15, both
houses of parliament unanimously agreed to establish a commission to recommend
changes to bring the much-criticized charter more in-line with the democratic
reform process.
It is still unclear where Thein
Sein and Shwe Mann, both presidential hopefuls in 2015, stand on the potential
constitutional amendments. The USDP is by far the largest party in parliament
with control over more than half of the upper and lower houses' 664 seats and
is fortified by the 25% of seats reserved outright for uniformed military
officials. Any constitutional amendments must be approved by more than 75% of
parliament, meaning the military can block any proposed changes.
Thein Sein recently handed over
the USDP's chairman to Shwe Mann, thereby giving the Lower House Speaker
authority over any proposed constitutional changes. The handover of the party's
reins also means that Suu Kyi must work with Shwe Mann rather than Thein Sein
to achieve changes to allow her to run for the presidency in 2015. Media
speculated earlier that Suu Kyi had fallen out with Thein Sein after a period
of engagement and is now on better working terms with parliamentary leader Shwe
Mann.
Still, many political observers
doubt Shwe Mann, currently locked in a power struggle with Thein Sein, would be
willing to implement changes that undercut his own electoral chances for the
presidency. Suu Kyi will need to convince both leaders that constitutional
change is necessary for the country's further democratization and development,
a view Western governments and donors will no doubt support. The drive to
reform the constitution will pit her idealism against the USDP's and military's
power politics and show how far the military is willing to go towards genuine
democratization.
The jockeying for presidential
position has already begun. During a recent trip to observe the conflict and
peace process in Kachin State, Shwe Mann said repeatedly, "I'm not a
dictator", in conversations with local people. Observers say the comments
are consistent with his attempts to distance himself from the previous military
junta he served as a high-ranking officer and associate himself with the country's
new democratic direction.
Even if the charter is changed in
a way that allows Suu Kyi to run for president, it is not clear how the
military would ultimately respond to her civilian leadership. In recent
statements Suu Kyi has bid to put the military's fears at ease, including in a
BBC press interview where she expressed her long-time "fondness" for
the army. More significantly, her parliamentary committee's recommendation to
continue with a controversial military-invested copper mine despite land
seizures from villagers indicated a willingness to protect military commercial
interests in the face of grass roots resistance. She notably referred to the
need for "national reconciliation" in her committee's
recommendations.
Unlike the opposition icons that
became national leaders in other transitional democracies, Suu Kyi faces many
obstacles to finally assuming Myanmar's presidency. Indeed, some political
observers doubt the military will allow free and fair elections to be held in
2015 if Suu Kyi and the NLD are clearly poised to win. Whether Suu Kyi can
negotiate the constitutional changes she and her party now seek and convince
potential spoilers of her benign intentions will animate Myanmar's politics in
the weeks and months ahead.
Aung Tun
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