The big question
facing Southeast Asia’s policymakers today is not making a choice between
butter and guns, but how to face the growing threats from other various
sources, including climate change.
Given the chronic scarcity of resources, can countries
in Southeast Asia cope with the long-term impact of climate change not just on
their economies, but also on their citizens and their livelihoods?
Imagine that climate change is reducing the world’s
gross domestic product by 1.6 per cent, which is about US$1.2 trillion (RM3.6
trillion). This is like the Republic of Korea’s economy being wiped out from
the world economic map.
Let’s take another specific example. The Mekong Delta
helps Vietnam become a big exporter of rice to the world. Vietnam is a major
contributor to the world’s food security.
Local scientists, however, predict that if Vietnam
cannot stop climate change and its impact at the current level, which is among
the worst in the world, Vietnam will have to import rice five times larger in
volume than its export today. In addition, sea-level rise, coupled with
river-level drop, is salinating vast areas of the Delta, potentially affecting
the livelihoods of millions of people.
From land to the oceans, climate change is having a
major impact. It is thought to change the natural formation of the islands and
affecting the resources in the South China Sea on which different claims have
been made.
Equally alarming, climate change may increase the
likelihood of the resort to violence. Under the stress of climate change,
competition for natural resources might well lead to conflicts between nations,
as forecast by experts.
For instance, lack of access to water due to low
availability and human factors might threaten to increase tensions and
undermine the hard-won peace and stability of Southeast Asia. It is therefore
sensible to state that the bigger question for every regional government and
various organisations today is the strategic one.
FAR-REACHING
REPERCUSSIONS
The repercussions of climate change have transcended
economics and traditional security. It now has to do with the well-being of
hundreds of millions of people.
For example, Southeast Asia is classified as an area
that is being or about to be a “seriously affected” area by climate change,
according to a report by the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change.
This is because a vast part of its population lives on
agriculture and natural resources, both of which depend on stability in the
global climate. It thus makes sense for policymakers to reflect on the issue
with a wider and deeper lens.
Most of the economies in Southeast Asia are still
developing. The World Bank estimates that more than 35 per cent of Southeast
Asians live in “direst poverty”. This group of people is located in rural areas
where the adaptive capacity for climate change is “very limited”.
The rest of the population is not free from the
adverse impact of climate change. Sea-level rise, droughts, floods are
recurring themes in this part of the world.
The flood in Bangkok in 2011 was estimated to have
cost Thailand US$17 billion and economists say it would take much more than
that for recovery.
Some scholars also look at the cultural factor. The
land and water that people have lived on for generations will not stay the same
because of changes in the climate. Traditional ways of living have to be
adapted to the new context.
With their traditional cultures affected, can people
remain as they are?
At the same time, threats from traditional security
challenges such as conflicts and wars in Southeast Asia remain, even though the
region has generally been stable and peaceful. There is no doubt that because
of the security dilemma, no country can consider itself safe.
That means, traditional security enhancement is a top
priority for any country in this anarchic world, not just Southeast Asia. The
problem is, how much should a country spend for this? Also, how should it
balance its limited resources with the need to meet non-traditional security
challenges such as mitigating climate change?
CURRENT OPTIONS
According to The Economist and IHS Jane’s, Southeast
Asian countries increased defence spending by 13.5 per cent in 2011, to US$24.5
billion. This is larger than the GDP size of some Southeast Asian countries
combined. Policymakers are not simply working with numbers; they are dealing
with people.
Can anyone convince governments that non-traditional
security challenges are threatening people no less than those afflicted by
traditional security threats, and that we have to reallocate resources
accordingly? Policy legacies are not melting at the speed of ice in the Arctic.
Quite the contrary, the traditional security industry still has a big say in
the policymaking of many countries.
The remaining part of the question — how — is equally
gloomy. Capacity is at a chokepoint for most of the Southeast Asian
governments. How can they restructure their economies to become low-carbon or
green economies? Where would they get the technologies?
Myriad questions remain in the fight against climate
change alone in Southeast Asia. Awareness has been raised, but is it enough?
When a soldier is holding a weapon, he is supposed to point it at a specific
target. But now with his “enemy” being threats from everywhere, where can he
point?
Against this background, many are hoping for a
Southeast Asia that rebalances its resources and does the right thing. The
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is taking steps in addressing
climate change, for example via the mechanisms under the ASEAN Socio-Cultural
Community.
Given the magnitude of the issue, it may be just as
well that it is also being considered under the ambit of the ASEAN Political-Security
Community. — Today
Le Dinh Tinh
Business & Investment Opportunities Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Health care and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN 's area. We are currently changing the platform of www.yourvietnamexpert.com, if any request, please, contact directly Dr Christian SIODMAK, business strategist, owner and CEO of SBC at christian.siodmak@gmail.com. Many thanks.
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