And President Aquino is right at the front
Congressional and other elections
looming in the Philippines next year may provide some clue to how far
governance reform has progressed so far under President Benigno S. Aquino III.
Nominations are in a so it is possible to discern a little of the future. It is
a depressing spectacle.
These elections may tell us about
the chances of governance gains being sustained by his successor. Sadly the
nation has a long history of improvement, such as under President Fidel Ramos,
only to be undone by successors Estrada and Arroyo. Unless Aquino goes into
this election cycle with an comprehensive reform agenda for the second half of
his presidency the chances are high that history will repeat itself.
The recent rise in foreign
perceptions of the Philippines owes much to Noynoy’s efforts to improve
governance by appointing mostly honest and competent people to key positions
and addressing head-on the corruption and politicization of the Supreme Court.
Although he gives scant impression of being either dynamic or decisive, his
firm stances of the Reproductive Health bill and in facing China over the
Panatag shoal and West Philippine sea have been rewarded with a high level of
popular approval.
Aquino’s economic policies have
differed little from Arroyo’s but the emphasis on education, health and support
for the poorest has had some impact. But so far Philippines’ growth continue to
be driven mainly by the impact of remittances and earnings from business
processing outsourcing rather than by a sustained rise in the level of
investment in badly needed infrastructure.
Tax collection remains a struggle
with corruption and smuggling of both exports and imports defying good
intentions. Indeed increased trade with China may even have increased the
smuggling and illegal mining problems.
The persistent current account
surplus, low interest rates and firm peso gain applause as signs of strength of
stability, which impresses foreign investors but also reflects the inadequate
level of investment. What remains lacking is the domestic and foreign
investment that could broaden the economic base and create jobs for a working
age population still expanding at over 2 percent a year.
Infrastructure badly lags even
Indonesia and in a country of 90 million people no amount of outsourcing can
compensate for lack of growth in labor-absorbing manufacturing. That the
Philippines lags so badly both on economic and many social development goals is
primarily a function of weak governance, whether high level corruption at the
center, dominance of regional power and privilege by family dynasties, or the
lack of a nationwide bureaucracy with strong traditions and systems. Entrenched
interests keep out competition by manipulating the political system.
In short there is only so much
that a president, however honest and determined, can do. Which brings us to the
role of the coming elections. Thus far it is a depressing spectacle – and one
on which Aquino has shown no sign of leadership. Nominations for the Senate
show that the dynastic tendencies of politics are being strengthened at a time
when power should be shifting to new entrepreneurs and those linked the new
middle class emerging from outsourcing and professionals returning from
overseas employment.
The Aquino clan is itself the
worst offender, offering up two relatives including one who has never run for
any public office but who thinks the name and looks is sufficient. Next up is
vice-president Jejomar Binay, who not only has his own eyes set on the
presidency in 2016 – even though he would then be 73 years old – but is backing
his daughter for a senate seat even though she too has no experience of lower
level election of administration.
Then there are the Estradas.
Former President Estrada’s son Jinggoy is already in the Senate and may well be
joined by his brother JV Ejercito, who has changed his name to Estrada to
improve his prospects. (Ejercito was the family name. Estrada was the former
president’s stage name). Name usage is also the game for the son of 88-year old
Senate President and one time Marcos defense minister Juan Ponce Enrile. He has
identical initials to his father.
Two relatives of President Gloria
Macapagal-Arroyo are also contenders, so that clan may well join the
descendants of former presidents Marcos and Osmena in the 24-person law-making
body. Sons of senators Angara and Villar are also bidding to replace their
fathers.
Things are not much better for
the competition for seats in the House of Representatives, where two or three
families continue to dominate in many provinces and even large urban areas.
Currently, according to one estimate, in 40 percent of provincials congressman
and governors are related, and 50 percent of both are related to previous
holders of these officers.
New national heroes cannot resist
trying to use name recognition to create a political dynasty. Thus the boxer
Manny Pacquiao is not content with being a congressman – though he hardly
bothers to attend – but is backing his wife for a vice-governorship.
Dynastic hope has even been
taking over some of the congressional seats elected on a national basis and reserved
party lists. These were included in the 1986 constitution in an effot to
broaden the base of representation including providing space for marginalized
and worker and leftist groups such as Bayan Muna. But it has largely been taken
over by representatives of the rich and powerful. Thus Arroyo’s rich husband
Mikey is there to represent security guards.
This time around the Commission
of Elections, once in the pocket of the incumbent presidents, is taking a
stance, weeding out many of the groups through which dynasties have flourished.
But is difficult and controversial process and suggests to some reformers that
the party list system has failed in its purpose and should be abolished.
But the real scandal of the
dynasty issue is that dynasties are supposed to be outlawed by the
constitution. The state “must prohibit political dynasties as defined by law.”
But there is no law and not much prospect of one in the near future.. A bill to
establish one is held up in a Senate committee and is unlikely to see the light
of day before next year’s election which seems set to increase the dynast hold.
Some argue that Comelec should
take up the issue itself to enforce a constitutional provision which the
lawmakers have avoided. But it unlikely to be so bold.
Another needed reform is to get
rid of the pork barrel system of proving government largesse to senators and
congressmen allegedly for specific works projects. But for the center it is a
means of buying congressmen’s votes and for the legislators a way of getting
kickback from the contractors employed for the projects. So while Aquino
preaches anti-corruption at the top, he still carries on with a pork system
which is institutionalized corruption masquerading a development spending.
For sure there is a groundswell
of opinion against dynasties and pork. But nothing is likely to happen unless
the president takes a lead. But he has shown scant interest in constitutional
issues, including changing the constitution itself. Many believe that the
current two tier legislature and the system of national election of senators
contribute to corruption and to long delays in legislating. It encourages
name-driven politics and has led to political parties being no more than
temporary alliances of convenience with no real policy platforms or national
agendas.
Different ideas for change are
bandied around but again nothing will happen without leadership. As it is,
nationalist economic clauses in the 1986 constitution have become a tool for
entrenched interests to keep out foreign competition as well as ensure that
legislation and taxation provisions are favorable to them.
It is not certain whether any
president can push through changes which would fundamentally improve standards
of governance. But such are needed if the nation is to cease to be a
semi-feudal state ruled by a self-perpetuating elite and with a system which
continues to fail to bring significant progress to the mass of people millions
of whom are undernourished and millions more dependent on the remittances by hard
working family members.
Aquino must stop basking in
approval for what he has achieved and lay out a radical reform agenda which can
underwrite his achievements so far. An attack on dynasties would be a good
place to start.
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