Ian Bremmer talks America's new role in Asia, how conflict in the Middle
East could challenge such a role, and China's future.
The Diplomat's Editor Harry Kazianis recently spoke with noted
author and president of Eurasia Group, Ian
Bremmer, about President Obama's recent trip to Southeast Asia, how tensions in
the Middle East could affect America's renewed focus on Asia and China's
future.
1. This week President Obama and
senior members of his foreign policy team visited a series of nations in
Southeast Asia including Burma. Many have argued that with ethnic tensions
still unresolved, the Obama administration has moved too fast to restore
relations and trade. Some have also argued the administrations moves have had
more to do with China than Burma itself. What is your take?
During his trip to Myanmar
earlier this week, Obama made the trek to the home of opposition leader Aung
San Suu Kyi, where she had spent more than two decades under house
arrest. While the White House was still planning the trip, she cautioned
the administration against visiting Myanmar at all, urging Obama not to be lured
by the “mirage of success.” So why would Obama make it a priority to
visit a country whose national hero warned him not to do it—a trip that could
come back to bite him if the reform process goes south?
It’s because Obama’s trip through
Southeast Asia is all about China. The Obama “doctrine,” to the extent
that there is one, is the pivot to Asia…and the use of economic statecraft, as
originally coined by Hillary Clinton. Both center on the rise of China
and the potential challenges that come with it, especially if China doesn’t
align its behavior with international norms. There’s a security and an
economic component.
Aiming to add Thailand to the Trans-Pacific Partnership—a potential free trade agreement
of like-minded countries that could serve as a counterweight to China’s
regional economic dominance— and removing sanctions on Burma are actions that
the United States is taking through this China lens.
2. Tensions have been rising
in the Middle East with fears that hostilities between Hamas and Israel could
escalate further, even as the standoff between the U.S. and Iran continues. Do
these problems in the Middle East doom the administration's so-called 'pivot'
to Asia? In an era of constrained resources, can America focus on problems in
the Middle East while also demonstrating a stronger commitment in the
Asia-Pacific?
Conflict in the Middle East certainly has the
potential to distract the administration, and not only the United States, of
course, but a range of other countries as well. But regardless of the
state of play on the ground in the Middle East, the United States is going to
play a comparatively diminished role in the region—especially in the context of
what we’ve seen over the past ten years, with occupations in Iraq and
Afghanistan. Going forward, expect a “lighter footprint,” which is part
of the reason we’re going to see more conflict.
The U.S. is out of Iraq and not
going back in; it will not commit forces to Syria. Washington is doing
everything possible to avoid military strikes in Iran. The fact that
Obama did not cancel the aforementioned Southeast Asia trip in light of events
in Israel/Gaza shows how serious this Asia pivot has become. That’s the
direction we’re heading.
And don’t expect any other
foreign power to fill the leadership void. The rest of the West is
maximally distracted with internal issues. The Chinese, whose stake in
the region is growing as a result of their energy needs, are not at the stage
of development where they would be willing to pick up the baton.
3. In a
recent interview on Charlie Rose, you explained that a major issue
confronting China's leadership is it must govern what effectively constitutes
two different China's: the more wealthy, urbanized and coastal China on the one
hand and the relatively poorer, more rural, inland China on the other. Each
segment of society has very different aspirations and goals. How can China's
new leaders devise policies and programs to help these two very different
groups?
China’s leaders can help these
two very distinct groups if they are willing to be more flexible in enacting true liberalizing reform with that wealthier
group. That means a more accountable, more transparent government, with
more autonomy given to local leaders. Like Chinese leadership did
originally with special economic zones more than 30 years ago, there needs to
be special accounting zones, special judicial zones, and special banking zones,
where norms and values are more in line with the international community.
Short of that, governance is going to become increasingly problematic.
Unfortunately, when you look at
the new group of leaders coming out of the recent transition, we’ve seen a
consolidation of the status quo. The standing committee has condensed from nine members to seven,
and it’s clear the government is moving in a more unified direction. It
seems like a government distinctly less likely to experiment and take the
necessary gambles.
4. As yourself and many other
commentators have pointed out, China faces a demographic challenge in the
coming decades. After 2015, China's workers will become increasingly older and
the burden of taking care of this 'graying' population will rise. Some have
speculated that China's rise may in fact be peaking. Can China reverse this
trend in your view by say scrapping its one-child policy? In what way will
demographics shape China's geo-strategic goals in your view? Could it limit its
rise as a true global power?
It’s certainly true that
demographics are not on China’s side. Today there are three workers for
every pensioner in China. By 2030, there will be just two.
And demographics are just one piece of the riddle. China is not only
going to run out of cheap labor, but cheap labor won’t be the advantage it used
to be. It’s about robotics. It’s about 3-D printing. As
technology makes labor-intensive manufacturing a relatively more expensive
option, it’s going to put huge pressure on the decision making processes of Chinese State-Owned Enterprises, if they want to be
efficient.
After all, China is a state
capitalist nation, where leaders’ desire for economic growth only exists
insofar as it can keep them in power. If growth means restructuring huge
sections of the economy and contending with a related spike in unemployment,
don’t expect Beijing to take on these reforms lightly. The overall labor
force dynamics—including demographics, labor cost and technology—are certainly
going to limit China’s rise.
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