In what appears to be a conscious effort to mend increasingly frayed
relations with Beijing, the Aquino administration has been, in recent months,
trying hard to restore a semblance of normality in bilateral ties.
Cognizant of China's growing
economic and political clout - most visible in the Southeast Asian region,
where China is the region's biggest trading partner - and immense sensitivity
to increasingly revitalized Philippine-US military relations, Manila has
engaged a cocktail of strategies to calm Chinese nerves, prevent a disastrous
diplomatic-economic fallout, and set the stage for a more cooperative
relationship with the new leadership.
Meanwhile, President Obama's
decision to skip the Philippines (again) in his current Asian visit has added a
greater element of urgency to restoring Philippine-China ties. Surely, as
Manila laments Washington's diplomatic snub amid such a sensitive period in
Sino-Filipino relations, it finds greater rationale to de-escalate territorial
tensions.
Taking China's threats seriously
The Aquino administration's
strategic calculus is hinged on an assumption that as long as territorial tensions
are kept below a specific threshold, with America's (unfolding) pivot serving
as an implicit deterrent, it is always possible to cajole China into an
amicable settlement over disputed territories - allowing both sides to save
face and irreversibly shun direct confrontation.
In Manila's estimation, the
tipping point was reached somewhere around April this year, when both sides
teetered on the verge of military confrontation, as they squared off over the
Scarborough Shoal. However, since then Manila has taken a more cautious and
increasingly conciliatory approach for two reasons.
First, a sober appreciation of
China's highly sensitive domestic political environment: with communism losing
its ideological appeal, it's popular nationalism that has gripped the nation,
acting as a political glue that binds an anxious communist party with an
increasingly restive society.
Watching China's aggressive
showdown with Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea in
recent months, Manila has recognized the depth of Beijing's domestic dilemma:
Despite the need for maintaining strong economic relations with neighboring
countries, especially to sustain the current pace of growth, the Chinese
leadership could (or perceives to) face a more severe domestic political
backlash if it is seen as diffident over its territorial claims - so embedded
in Chinese psyche - in adjacent waters. This is precisely why the Chinese
leadership has tolerated - if not partly encouraged - massive protests against
Japanese interests in recent months, despite the tremendous associated
(diplomatic and economic) costs.
Second, an anxious observation of
America's equivocations in terms of providing direct support to both the
Philippines and Japan at the height of recent territorial spats with China in
the South and East China Seas. In Philippines' view, a provoked China might not
hesitate to throw its weight around the South China Sea disputes, even in the
absence of long-standing historical enmity - like those against imperial Japan
- between Beijing and Southeast Asian states such as the Philippines. A lack of
unconditional commitment by the United States to the protection of its regional
allies has only exacerbated the matter.
China has already been sending
ominous signals to the US's regional allies. Influential elements within the
Chinese leadership, especially the People's Liberation Army (PLA), have
regularly branded - through open statements in major Chinese newspapers - the
likes of the Philippines and Vietnam as agent provocateurs, who are said to be
fanning Sino-American tensions amid Washington's pivots to the Asia-Pacific
theater.
Earlier this year, the Global
Times called for "economic sanctions", blaming the Philippines for
stoking tensions in Sino-American relations, while the Liberation Army Daily
accused the Philippines of hiding behind America's skirt by stating, "The
United States' shift in strategic focus to the east and its entry into the
South China Sea issue has provided the Philippines with room for strategic
maneuver, and to certain extent increased the Philippines' chips to play
against us, emboldening them to take a risky course."
Restoring balance
Since 2010, Sino-Filipino
relations have been progressively undermined by a bitter territorial conflict
over a host of features in the South China Sea (or 'West Philippine Sea' in
Manila's diplomatic lexicon). The deterioration in bilateral ties has come
against the backdrop of booming diplomatic and economic relations, especially
during President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's administration (2001-2009).
What the Aquino administration
hopes to achieve is to revitalize bilateral ties to (a) sustain a rowing
economic partnership and (b) avoid direct confrontation; but, at the same time,
he wishes not to jeopardize his fiercely assertive (if not populist) stance
over Philippines' territorial claims.
In mid-October, just weeks before
Xi Jinping's ascent to the helm of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), President
Aquino, in a press conference with international media, expressed his optimism
in restoring bilateral ties by stating, "There seems to be a gradual, very
gradual, warming up [in Sino-Philippine ties] - I want to be very precise. So
we are hopeful that this gradual warming up will be really warmed up by the
time of the transition. So we are taking a wait-and-see attitude."
Recognizing the complexities of
China's "domestic pressures", he implored Beijing to show more
flexibility in their approach by emphasizing, "[though] there will be
pressures leading up to the transition, we hope that these domestic pressures
in China will be lessened after the transition so that we can have more room to
negotiate and to discuss in more reasonable terms and less ultra-nationalistic
[author's own emphasis] tones."
Aquino hinted at how Beijing's
foreign posturing is entangled by the trappings of growing popular nationalism
among the populace - a worrying policy handicap, which has limited China's
strategic wiggle room for dialogue and compromise over territorial disputes in
adjacent waters. The Philippines' hope is for the new leadership to transcend
these limitations and prioritize a rational pursuit of interests within the
broader international system.
Aquino made his statements just
days before much-anticipated top-level bilateral talks between the two
country's deputy foreign ministers, the so-called Foreign Ministry
Consultations (FMC). Reciprocating the Filipino leaders' encouraging remarks,
the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hong Lei stated, "China and the
Philippines are important neighbors to each other, China attaches importance to
China-Philippine relations, and is willing to push forward a healthy and stable
bilateral relationship."
The October FMC was extremely
crucial, because it broke a long period of de facto bilateral diplomatic
hiatus, with the previous FMC held as far back as January (just four months
before the flaring up of tensions over the Scarborough Shoal) and a number of
bilateral dialogues and cultural events cancelled due to heightening
Sino-Filipino tensions.
Room for cautious optimism
Beijing's "October
surprise", the well-handled FMC exchanges with Filipino counterparts,
proved largely a success for a number of reasons.
First, the Chinese envoy was led
by Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying, who - as the former ambassador to the Philippines
(1992-2000) - has been largely familiar with both the Philippines' political
landscape as well as its top leadership.
Second, Fu chose to also meet
Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert Del Rosario, who has had a
particularly difficult relationship with the Chinese negotiators in the past
few months. Back in June, President Aquino sanctioned an attempt by an
up-and-coming Senator Trillanes to pursue backdoor negotiations with China. The
whole episode proved to not only undercut Del Rosario's function as the foreign
policy chief, but it also exposed Beijing's dismay with him.
According to some commentators,
Chinese diplomats preferred Trillanes as an interlocutor, because they saw Del
Rosario as the chief architect of the revitalization in Philippine-American
military alliance, obviously at China's expense. Fu's decision to meet Del
Rosario served as an opportunity for China to mend ties with Del Rosario,
restore channels of communication, and signal its willingness to negotiate with
him on a more amicable and institutionalized basis.
Third, the Chinese envoy expanded
its charm-offensive towards the Filipino leadership by also meeting with
leading legislators, most especially the influential Senate President Juan
Ponce Enrile, who has been behind a vitriolic criticism of the Trillanes-led
backdoor negotiations. Although claiming that he did not touch on sensitive
issues in his conversations with the Chinese Vice Foreign Minister, Enrile
described his meeting with Fu in an affectionate and upbeat manner - suggesting
some good bilateral report between major figures in both countries.
"She just paid me a visit
because she's my friend. She has been my friend when she was here," Enrile
told the media about his meeting with the Chinese diplomat. "She used to
come to my office to talk to me about some problems then of China, especially
when [senators] were discussing the Visiting Forces Agreement with the United
States. [Fu will] understand that I am serving my country and not anybody else
in the same way that I would understand she's serving her country and nobody
else."
It is far from certain whether
the new Chinese leadership under Xi Jingping will ever contemplate a softer
stance on its territorial claims in the South China Sea, but what is clear is
that both sides are interested in preventing a direct confrontation and/or a
major diplomatic fall out over ongoing territorial disputes, without backing
off from their populist territorial position.
It's a tough balancing act, which
will require both strategic foresight and some luck. In the end, depending on
the trajectory of regional territorial tensions and the sincerity of America's
pivot, the Philippines might be pushed to throw in its lot with either the
Americans or the Chinese, which is precisely what most regional leaders are
trying to avoid.
Richard Javad Heydarian
Business & Investment Opportunities
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