Scientists
are hoping to stall plans to erect a string of dams along the Mekong River.
This summer, a crew of strangers arrived in
the tiny village of Pak Lan along the Mekong River in northern Laos. They sat
around in shorts, examining technical drawings, and then surveyed the area,
measuring the height of the riverbank, the size of the rice paddies and even
the number of pigs.
The tally is necessary because Pak Lan may
soon disappear. The government will need to move it and 18 nearby villages,
because they will be partially or fully submerged if a highly controversial
dam, called the Xayaburi, is built. The US$3.5-billion project will create a
60-kilometre-long reservoir and generate 1260 megawatts of power, which will
earn between $3 billion and $4 billion a year for the developer, CH Karnchang
Public Company of Thailand.
Somchit Tivalak, village chief and
representative of the ruling communist Lao People's Representative Party, is
not quite sure what a hydroelectric dam is or how it will work, but he is
convinced that good things are on the horizon. He says that his village will
move to a place where it will have roads and electricity, as well as a
reservoir teeming with fish.
Many others, however, are deeply worried. The
lower Mekong, which winds through Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam, is one
of the last big untamed rivers in the world. Nearly 60 million people depend on
its rich fisheries for their survival. If the Xayaburi dam is built, it will
set a precedent for 10 other hydropower dams proposed for the main stem of the
river. If all those proceed, nearly 55 percent of the river will be converted
to slow-flowing reservoirs.
Predicting the effects of such massive changes
is impossible because the Mekong is one of the most poorly studied major rivers
in the world. Taxonomists know so little about the fish there that they are
discovering new species at an unparalleled pace. And governments do not
consistently monitor water and sediment flows along the river.
In the case of the proposed Xayaburi dam, some
scientists say the environmental impact assessment (EIA) conducted for the
builder is seriously flawed because it does not consider the wider effects of
the dam. "The EIA of the Xayaburi dam is the worst EIA that I've ever
seen," says Ian Baird, a professor of geography at University of
Wisconsin-Madison who has studied the region for decades.
Cambodia and Vietnam, which researchers say
will receive a disproportionate share of the harm from the dam, have both
objected to it. And a scientific panel hired by the Mekong River Commission - a
regulatory body made up of government representatives from Thailand, Laos,
Cambodia and Vietnam - last year recommended a 10-year delay on damming the
river so that researchers could gather the needed data. But the Laotian
government, which will receive up to 30% of the revenue, says that it will push
ahead.
So scientists are rushing to assess how the
dams will affect the Mekong's fisheries and the flow of sediment that helps to
sustain its vast delta. "The problem is, dams are coming very fast and are
going to deeply modify the environment in a very short time frame," says
Eric Baran, fisheries researcher at the World Fish Center in Phnom Penh.
"And the countries are not equipped to deal with that yet."
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