Thailand - All eyes on the mighty Chao Phraya

From his small restaurant by the swollen Chao Phraya river at Tha Prachan pier in the northern part of Bangkok, with the water heaving just an arm's length away, Mr Boonma Phongparinya has been watching the level rise every day.

He fully expects the water to damage the wooden flooring of the restaurant which he has been running for more than 30 years, says the 54-year-old.

Sandbags have been laid for people to walk on, and around him, workers and neighbouring shop owners hammer and saw non-stop as they fix wooden planks to raise the walkways on the vulnerable waterfront.

It is a common sight along the river that snakes through Bangkok, as the Thai authorities continue scrambling to cope with the floods that have inundated almost entire provinces just north of the capital.

"Every government has always struggled to deal with the annual floods because root causes were never addressed," said Mr Boonma. "It's deforestation in the north and all over the country."

Deforestation in the north may have caused faster rainwater run-off, filling reservoirs more rapidly to the point where water had to be released in a hurry following unusually heavy monsoon rain.

Added Mr Boonma: "If you want to solve the problem, you have to start at the source."

The rising waters are expected to pose a serious threat to Bangkok later this week: Flooding is expected to get worse as water released from reservoirs in the north continues to pour southwards, down rivers and canals to the sea.

Concerns now centre on evacuating affected communities in the north - and in the capital itself if necessary - and scores of evacuation centres, many in schools and army barracks, have been opened and stocked with supplies.

The meteorological office predicted a let-up in rain over the next three days, following almost a whole day of rain in Bangkok yesterday.

But a coming high tide, forecast between Oct 15 and 19, remains a worry, as it will slow down the flow of water in the Chao Phraya and even cause it to back up. Many parts of the city are barely above sea level, and rely on flood walls to protect them from any overflow in the river and major canals.

The authorities' response to the floods, meanwhile, has drawn a mix of reactions. An Assumption University poll of 1,012 community leaders and local officials in flood-affected provinces, showed that 79 per cent thought the government's support was insufficient and not efficiently distributed.

The famously outspoken Mr Smith Thammasaroj, a former national disaster chief, was critical of the water management authorities for failing to predict sustained heavy rain, and not releasing water accumulated in reservoirs earlier.

"Water management should be in the context of advance forecasts of rain and storms," he said.

But another poll by Rangsit University found that 62 per cent of Thais were confident the government could handle the crisis.

The Bangkok-based spokesman for the United Nations' Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Ms Kirsten Mildren, described the Thai government's response as impressive.

While there was concern over potential outbreaks of dengue fever and typhoid in areas where floodwaters have been standing for days - and could remain until next month - there have been no unusual health problems reported so far, she noted.

"It's mainly a logistics challenge, but the Thai government seems to have the capacity to deal with it," she said.

Thailand's worst floods in over 50 years have already killed almost 270 people, displaced well over a million and swamped parts of two industrial estates.

They are also likely to cost the economy tens of billions of baht.

Yesterday, Finance Minister Thirachai Phuvanatnaranubala estimated the floods could cost 60 billion baht (US$1.9 billion), while an official at the National Economic and Social Development Board predicted 90 billion baht.

Losses in the agricultural sector alone could reach 40 billion baht, said Mr Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, the board's secretary-general. He also warned that the auto and electronics industries - key drivers of Thailand's exports - could be disrupted until next month.

The two months of prolonged flooding have also ravaged other parts of the region. In Cambodia, more than 200 people were killed when the Mekong River burst its banks, while Vietnam reported a total of 24 flood deaths as of yesterday.

Nirmal Ghosh

The Straits Times

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