Oct 28, 2011

Vietnam - National Assembly worries of inflation, interest rate


VietNamNet Bridge – Businesses, the major driving forces for economic development was among the hottest topics at the National Assembly’s economic-social discussion panel on October 27.


Most of NA deputies said that macro-economic stability, curbing inflation would be the top missions in the next few years. They urged the government to redouble efforts on curbing inflation to below 10 percent and shift focus away from a high economic growth target for 2012. 

However, with this year's annual inflation expected to be 18 percent, compared to nearly 12 percent in 2010, achieving single-digit inflation will be extremely difficult. 

Vietnam's targeted economic growth for 2012 is slightly higher than this year's growth rate. The country's GDP increase this year is expected at 6 percent, lower than the rate of 6.78 percent in 2010. The index grew by 5.43 percent in the first quarter, 5.67 percent in the second quarter, and 6.11 percent in the third quarter.

Deputy Truong Minh Hoang from the southernmost province of Ca Mau said in 2013-2015, the consumer price index (CPI) must be brought to 5-7 percent. The government should even accept a lower economic growth next year than this year or it even does not need to set the growth goal.

"It's not necessary to raise the growth rate of Gross Domestic Products (GDP) to 6-6.5 per cent next year. The far more important task is lowering annual inflation to less than 10 percent," said Deputy Mai Huu Tinh of Binh Duong. 

"If two-digit inflation continues in 2012, all the economic achievements the country has gained during many years will vanish into thin air," Deputy Tran Du Lich from HCM City warned.

The CPI reached its peak this year in April, and has since declined gradually. Deputy Mai Huu Tinh said most small and medium-sized enterprises are now close to shutting down.

"They won't be able to survive long if interest rates stay above 15 percent per year and inflation over 10 percent," he said.

The high rate of inflation and interest rates has resulted in massive bankruptcy of small and medium-sized businesses, a sector that account for 95 percent of enterprises in Vietnam.

Deputy Nguyen Cao Son from Hoa Binh and Vo Kim Cu from Ha Tinh said that it is very difficult for businesses to have access to banking loans. Son cited statistics of the Association of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises that only 20 percent of businesses could borrow from banks.

Deputy Cu said that banks need to simplify procedures and they should “reduce its huge profit to share difficulties with businesses and the economy.”

Deputies also said that high inflation has deeply impacted on daily life, resulted in the fact that people could not sustain life by their wage, especially state employees at commune and district levels.

In that context, deputies urged the government to pay more attention to development investment, social welfares, particularly in the rural areas.

Deputy Nguyen Quoc Cuong from Bac Giang said the government has invested more in the countryside (government spending in this area in 2011 is 2.21 folds higher than 2008) but the total investment in this significant area reduces from 6.45 percent in 2008 to 6 percent this year.

Deputies complained about the race among provinces in building universities, industrial zones and seaports. Deputy Phuong Thi Thanh from Bac Kan asked the government to reconsider regional development plan to avoid waste.

Regards to government debt, Deputy Tran Du Lich said that to define Vietnam’s government debt is at safe level or not, the effectiveness of capital use and solvency are two important factors, not comparing it with the GDP. This economic expert said ineffective use of capital is the problem of the Vietnamese economy.

According to the Hanoi and HCM City Departments of Planning and Investment, nearly 4,500 companies were dissolved or went bankrupt in the January-September period. Even in the economic crisis in 2008-2009, only 300-400 firms were dissolved a year, officials of the Hanoi Department of Planning and Investment said.


PV



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