Experts
are praising Indonesia's leadership of ASEAN this year while voicing concerns that
incoming chair Cambodia may not do as well and may not use the office neutrally
to resolve its border disputes with Thailand.
University of Indonesia international
relations expert Syamsul Hadi said on Tuesday that granting ASEAN's rotating
chair to Myanmar in 2014 would have political implications for the region, and
particularly for China.
"ASEAN has entrusted Myanmar to chair
ASEAN in 2014, but has given it notice that it has to undertake needed steps
toward democracy. This is also in line with US strategy," he said.
Syamsul said that Myanmar might be a more open
country and may not entirely be on the same page with China if it carried out
its democracy agenda.
"There will be a change in the political
constellation, where the US and democratic countries in ASEAN might make China
feel more 'alienated'. China's political influence might be less and less
because Myanmar has now increasingly been welcomed with open arms by ASEAN and
its dependency on China is more or less declining," Hadi said.
Dewi Fortuna Anwar, the chairwoman of the
Habibie Center's Institute for Democracy and Human Rights and a special advisor
to Vice President Boediono, said US support of Myanmar's bid should be seen as
a vote of confidence in ASEAN and not a lowering of American standards.
"It's not just the US giving a blank
check to Myanmar. [US President Barack] Obama wants to see even more progress …
Obama's even sending his secretary of state to Myanmar," she said.
Obama previously said the US was concerned
about Myanmar's closed political system, treatment of minorities, detention of
political prisoners and relationship with North Korea.
"We want to seize what might be a
historic opportunity for progress, and make it clear that if Burma continues to
travel down the road of democratic reform, it can forge a new relationship with
the United States of America," Obama said on Friday on the sidelines of the
ASEAN Summit in Nusa Dua, Bali.
Hillary Clinton will be the first US secretary
of state to go to Myanmar in over half a century. Clinton will explore what
kinds of assistance the US can provide to promote political reform in Myanmar.
Teuku Rezasyah, a researcher at the Indonesian
Center of Democracy, Diplomacy and Defense, said that ASEAN had proven itself
to be "bonafide, credible and acceptable to the West" during its
chairmanship.
"ASEAN has successfully made the US think
over whether they want to continue criticizing Myanmar and push it even closer
to China [...] or invite Myanmar to learn together with ASEAN how to be a
modern democratic country," he told The Jakarta Post.
Indonesia symbolically handed ASEAN's rotating
chairmanship to Cambodia last week in Bali.
Rezasyah, however, was concerned that Cambodia
would not be neutral in heading ASEAN due to the nation's border disputes with
Thailand.
"It will probably be hard for Cambodia
not to use its chairmanship and to act as a fair chairman in border disputes
with Thailand," Rezasyah said.
Syamsul agreed, saying Cambodia might use
ASEAN's bully pulpit to press Thailand, which has refused to bring its disputes
to ASEAN due to its superior position in a bilateral framework.
"As ASEAN has a number of different
functions, it's the responsibility of members who have more capacity to help
members who have less capacity," Dewi said.
Mustaqim Adamrah
The Jakarta Post
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