North Korea's young and inexperienced next leader will
lean on a seasoned inner circle headed by his aunt and uncle to guide him
through the transition to supreme ruler.
Kim Jong Un, who vaulted into
the leadership role with the death of his father, Kim Jong Il, made his public
debut as anointed successor only 15 months ago. Since then, the whirlwind
political campaign has barreled ahead — but perhaps not fast enough to mask the
air of uncertainty felt in the streets of Pyongyang, the North Korean capital.
The late Kim Jong Il had 20
years of preparation at the side of his father, North Korean founder Kim Il
Sung, who died in 1994. Experts say that because Kim Jong Un doesn't have that
kind of experience, the youngest member of the political dynasty will need the
brains and political brawn of his father's closest confidants before formally
taking power.
"Kim Jong Il was in a
frantic race against time," said Jonathan Pollack, a North Korea expert at
the Brookings Institution in Washington, "and he lost."
Analysts say two close, trusted
family members and political power brokers have emerged as Kim Jong Un's main
protectors: paternal aunt Kim Kyong Hui and her husband, Jang Song Thaek, who
have risen to the top of North Korea's political and military elite since the
succession campaign began two years ago.
Both 65, they also have the
weight of seniority so important in a society that places a premium on age and
alliances.
A last photograph of Kim Jong
Il released Saturday by the official Korean Central News Agency shows just how
important the aunt and uncle are to Kim Jong Un. In it, Kim Jong Il is
descending on an escalator at a Pyongyang supermarket while behind him stand a
group that includes his sister, Kim Kyong Hui, and her husband, Jang Song
Thaek, standing on steps below and above their nephew, the heir.
Making his first public
appearance Tuesday following his father's death, Kim Jong Un strode up and
bowed deeply before the bier in a memorial palace, the picture of vigor and
filial piety. Lined up alongside members of the elder Kim's inner circle, he
was the youthful exception among officials in their 60s, 70s and 80s who were
his father's closest confidants.
Kim, whose age has never been
revealed in North Korea, is 27 years old, according to a U.S. official in
Washington. Among Kim Jong Il's three sons, he is most like his father in
manner and personality.
"Kim Jong Il picked the
apple that didn't fall far from the tree," the official said, speaking on
condition of anonymity in exchange for the details. "He didn't select a
successor who he believed would radically depart from his vision for North
Korea."
When Kim Jong Un will formally
assume power remains unclear.
Official mourning periods can
last for months or even years in North Korea. Kim Jong Il observed a three-year
period of mourning after the death of his father before formally assuming
leadership, said John Delury, an assistant professor at Yonsei University's Graduate
School of International Studies in South Korea.
He said Kim Jong Un may take a
back seat to a group of regents during an extended mourning period.
"The question will be: If
he does — again in accordance with traditional mourning and his young age — take
a little bit of a back seat, even for a couple years as he establishes himself,
then it's going to be very difficult to figure out what's the balance of
control between Kim Jong Un and these other more senior, more experienced
figures."
John Park of the U.S. Institute
for Peace calls the aunt and uncle "key pillars" for Kim as he looks
to establish his leadership. But he questions whether their power — derived
from their personal association with Kim Jong Il — will endure now that he's
gone.
Kim Jong Il played rival groups
off one another, but everyone knew their position relied on him. "The key
question is whether Kim Jong Un can achieve that, even in coordination with his
regent aunt and uncle," he said.
Here is a look at key members
of the inner circle in North Korea:
KIM KYONG HUI
Kim is the late leader's
younger sister. She kept a low profile for decades until 2009, when she began
appearing with her brother during "on-the-spot guidance" trips
nationwide. Now considered a top political official who has shot up in the
ranks in two years, she is expected to play a caretaker role with her nephew.
She serves as director of the
light industry department of the ruling Workers' Party's Central Committee, a
position that has gained significance since North Korea made the industry
sector a priority in 2009. She was also appointed to the Political Bureau last
year and, like her nephew, was made a general in the Korean People's Army.
Kim is said to have a fiery
temperament but suffers from ill health, according to North Korea observers
based in Seoul.
JANG SONG THAEK
Kim Kyong Hui's husband is a
Soviet-trained technocrat who was a rising star until he was demoted in early
2004, seen as a warning from his brother-in-law against cultivating too much
influence.
Jang was brought back into the
fold in 2006, and he has been gaining influence since then. He heads the
party's administrative department, and more importantly oversees the
intelligence agency and other military-related institutions, according to the
Sejong Research Institute, a security think tank in South Korea.
In June 2009, he was made a
vice chairman of the powerful National Defense Commission and is an alternate
member of the Political Bureau. He has strong ties to the military, with two
brothers having served in high-level military posts, according to analysts.
Other key members:
— Kim Yong Nam, president of
Presidium of North Korea's parliament, often represents the country and is
considered a nominal head of state. He is a member of the party's Central
Committee.
— Ri Yong Ho, vice marshal and
chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army, promoted to vice
chairman of the party's Central Military Commission last year and a member of
the Presidium of the Political Bureau. Ri was close to Kim Jong Il and is said
to have strong ties with Jang.
— Choe Yong Rim, promoted to
premier last year. His family is said to have long-standing ties with the Kim
family. His daughter, Choe Son Hui, is a department director at the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs.
Concerns about the post-Kim
Jong Il era began mounting in 2008 when he disappeared from the public eye
after suffering a stroke. North Korea began closing ranks in 2009 during the
early stages of a movement to begin installing a successor.
The party's Political Bureau,
which had atrophied during much of Kim Jong Il's "military first"
rule, was restocked with loyal, mostly older cadres in 2010. The emphasis on
the Kim family's lineage and legitimacy to lead North Korea was promoted by
state media.
In taking the dynasty into a
third generation, Kim Jong Un faces the challenge of convincing his people and
the outside world that he has the clout and connections to make up for his
youth and inexperience.
He will be dealing with
poverty, hunger, isolation and questions about the military's support, but
"he has no profile in the party, no profile in the military," said
Victor Cha, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies. "Things could really come apart."
"The question is whether
these deeply personalized associations of Kim Jong Il persist with the young
general," Pollack said.
JEAN H. LEE and MATTHEW
PENNINGTON | AP
___
Lee is Korea bureau chief,
based in Seoul. Pennington reported from Washington. Associated Press writers
Kimberly Dozier in Washington, Alexa Olesen and Charles Hutzler in Beijing, and
Jiyoung Won in Seoul, South Korea, also contributed to this report. Follow Jean
H. Lee on Twitter at twitter.com/newsjean.
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