Taking
over where Thaksin left off
It has been six months since the July election
that brought the first woman into Thailand's top political position—Yingluck
Shinawatra.
During this period, Prime Minister Yingluck
has encountered several difficult issues, ranging from the devastating floods,
the attempt to provide amnesty for her fugitive brother Thaksin, and the
increasing cases of lèse-majesté.
But there is one area in which Yingluck has
appeared to be doing well so far—foreign affairs. It is fair to say that since
Thaksin’s downfall in 2006, Thailand has had no tangible foreign policy. The
Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat governments were short-lived. And the
Abhisit Vejjajiva period was marked by conflicts with neighbouring countries,
especially Cambodia.
It is therefore a real test for Yingluck to
reinvent Thai diplomacy, the one that departs from antagonism toward
neighbouring countries. In terms of Thai-Cambodian relations, Yingluck paid a
high-profile visit to Cambodia, as the first country in her introductory tour.
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen was gleeful to roll out a red carpet to
receive the Thai female premier. For now, relationship between the two
countries has returned to normalcy. And the secret to this success is that
issues in this bilateral relationship have simply become less politicised,
particularly on the Thai part.
Yingluck then went on to visit a number of
countries which are members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN), including Brunei, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Laos, Myanmar and
recently the Philippines. Symbolic as they were, these visits signalled
Thailand’s recovery from political illness at home and its eagerness to take a
role in ASEAN. But a question must be asked: How realistic is the Thai
eagerness?
During her visit to Naypyidaw in December
2011, Yingluck demonstrated that her government wanted to diversify Thailand’s
policy options towards Myanmar, by reaching out to both the government as well
as the opposition. Yingluck held a discussion with President Thein Sein and
also paid a visit to Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the opposition National League
for Democracy. At the end of her tour, Yingluck offered her support for
national reconciliation in Myanmar, wishing to see further political reforms in
the country long governed by the military.
Can Thailand, despite these bold moves
initiated by Yingluck, expect a shift in its foreign policy which was
traditionally seeking to achieve national interests at the expense of promoting
universal values, such as democracy and human rights protection? My answer is
rather pessimistic.
Ultimately, both Yingluck and her foreign
minister, Surapong Tovichakchaikul, have no experience in diplomacy. And one
must not forget that Yingluck is indeed Thaksin in disguise. Accordingly, it is
likely that she will restore the Thaksinized foreign policy which was
essentially commerce-driven without any respect for principles.
From 2001-2006, Thailand under Thaksin was so
ambitious that it thought it could conquer the world. Thaksin, a successful
businessman himself, was confident that he could transform Thailand into a
hegemon dominating smaller and weaker states in the region.
Thaksin then bypassed Asean, once a
cornerstone of Thai foreign policy. He perceived Asean as a representation of
an “old politics”—the kind of politics sullied by rigid bureaucratic processes.
Instead, Thaksin invented a myriad of business-centric cooperative frameworks,
including the Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD) and the Ayeyawady-Chao
Phraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy (ACMECS). He also strengthened Thai
economic cooperation with major trading partners through the conclusion of many
free trade agreements. Undoubtedly, the Thaksin period witnessed the most
colourful and innovative foreign policy Thailand ever had had in decades.
The remapping of Thailand in the age of
globalisation put Thaksin’s foreign policy on the spotlight—he was tipped to
become Asia’s next leader. Thaksin endorsed diplomatic activism; and in this,
he wanted to place Thailand at the core of the regional order through which the
Thai influence was wholly felt. In the latest reinvention of Thailand as a
regional leader, Thaksin also turned the kingdom into a company, run by a CEO
prime minister whose task was to evaluate economic costs and benefits in the
conduct of diplomacy.
Not only did the content of foreign policy
change. The operational mode within the foreign ministry also underwent an
extreme makeover. Representatives of the nation and the monarch were now
becoming CEO ambassadors who would visit their customer for products
demonstrations. While CEO ambassadors were dressed with more power, the role of
the Foreign Ministry in the formulation of foreign policy diminished.
The prime minister, his advisory team, and his
chosen foreign ministers all sidelined the Foreign Ministry’s officials. And
the House of Government became enormously influential in the making of foreign
policy.
The radical transformation of the Foreign
Ministry has left a deep scar of conflict between those who agreed and
disagreed with Thaksin’s approach. And the immense polarization in politics in
this post-coup period has further intensified such conflict within this state
agency. Yingluck and Surapong must not attempt to politicise foreign policy
issues, as seen in the previous administration.
If Thaksin is indeed behind the formulation of
Thailand’s foreign policy in this Yingluck era, then he has to learn the
mistakes he made while he served as prime minister. Thaksin’s past foreign
policy initiatives might have provided his government with a channel to secure Thailand’s
supposed national interests. But along the way, he and his family members were
accused of stoking their wealth by using state mechanisms.
Yingluck needs to open up the foreign policy
decision-making process, making it transparent to the public to avoid any
controversy. More importantly, her foreign policy for the next few years, if
she will ever serve the full four-year term, will have to be based
proportionally on economic interests and good governance. This is because her
government has received a popular mandate through democratic means and also
because Thailand cannot run away from a new international environment that has
become more democratic.
Pavin Chachavalpongpun
Asia Sentinel
(Pavin Chachavalpongpun is a fellow at
Singapore’s Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. Pavin is the author of
“Reinventing Thailand: Thaksin and His Foreign Policy” (2005). Follow him at
www.facebook.com/pavinchachavalpongpun.)
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