Small step in the struggle for democracy
The
victory of the main opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) party led by
Aung San Suu Kyi should not come as a surprise despite widespread
irregularities and the initial fear that the poll would not be free and fair.
It is
Suu Kyi’s iron will and principles that earned the support of the people. The
66-year-old and many other oppressed Burmese knew that to back down now would
mean always to be discounted.
This
victory, extraordinary as it is, with the NLD sweeping almost every seat, is
only for a tiny 45 seats in a Parliament where the military-backed ruling Union
Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) holds an enormous majority.
Yet it
demonstrates the will of the people and has laid the groundwork for the NLD and
Suu Kyi to prepare for the crucial 2015 general elections. The NLD, winner of
the 1990 general elections by a landslide, made a pragmatic decision.
Indeed,
this is a small step in Burma’s long struggle for democracy where so much more
still needs to be done. There is no magical cure for the country’s ills to shoo
away the former dictators and ex-junta generals who are still alive and
kicking.
In
June, when Burma resumes its parliamentary session, Suu Kyi will be sitting in
the assembly for the first time and media attention will again focus on Burma.
But it is too early to predict what comes next and how the political landscape
of the nation will change.
A week
before Sunday’s by-elections, I met Upper House Speaker Khin Aung Myint in
Naypyidaw and he said that he is ready to welcome Suu Kyi to the legislature.
Before the election, Suu Kyi visited Parliament where she held meetings with
both Lower House Speaker Shwe Mann and Khin Aung Myint.
During
his meeting with Suu Kyi, Khin Aung Myint told her not to worry about the small
presence of opposition seats. “I told her we would all support anything that
would be good for the country and people,” he said.
When
asked whether there had been any recent change in his attitude towards Suu Kyi,
the former major-general replied that it would be wrong to think so.
“If we
regard Gen Aung San [the independence hero who founded the Burmese Army and was
Suu Kyi's father] as our father, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is our sister. I have
never badmouthed her. I see her as my sister,” he explained.
Fine
words indeed, but no one is sure how much truth there is in his remarks. It
seems that only time will tell.
Of
course, it remains uncertain whether the majority of MPs—overwhelmingly USDP
members and military officers who are constitutionally safeguarded 25 percent
of seats—are mentally prepared to welcome Suu Kyi and her NLD colleagues. The
real test will come very soon, with this looming parliamentary session gearing
up to be an extremely exciting event.
What
was interesting is that the NLD won all four seats in Naypyidaw, Burma’s new
capital, which is supposed to be the stronghold of the military-backed government.
Moreover, several armed forces family members in garrison towns in central
Burma also voted for the NLD.
In any
case, President Thein Sein knew that these by-elections were crucial for his
government’s credibility. Indeed, Thein Sein was not surprised to see the NLD
winning most constituencies—that he expected. He knew that widespread
condemnation would follow if his USDP fixed the outcome and won a majority of
seats as occurred in the 2010 general elections.
When I
spoke to many senior officials in Naypyidaw and Rangoon, they told me that
Thein Sein is sincere in his decision to implement reforms although he faces
many challenges as well as rivals who are now undermining his administration.
The
military is always in the background with conservative and hardline groups
within the government a real cause for concern. The potential showdown between
Thein Sein and the ambitious Shwe Mann continues to make businessmen in Burma
nervous.
Thein
Sein could once again tell his rivals that he was correct to allow Suu Kyi to
take part in the by-elections and enter Parliament. The strategy is that it is
better for the government to have Suu Kyi in Parliament as Thein Sein does not
want a second rate “puppet” opposition leader to challenge him.
One of
his government colleagues told me during my second recent trip to Burma that
many Western nations were encouraging alternative groups to contest the
elections—creating an alternative force to counter Suu Kyi. But the government
preferred a credible opposition leader in Parliament instead.
In
fact, many close to the President’s Office told me that Thein Sein deserves
kudos for holding relatively peaceful by-elections. It was his initiative to
invite Suu Kyi to his palace and allow her to contest the ballot by amending
election laws. Indeed, he promised to hold free and fair election long before
although admitted some irregularities.
Election Will Be Good For the Economy
The
election will certainly have benefits for the economy of this once isolated
country. Foreign investors are ready to flock inside Burma once sanctions are
lifted and new investment laws are introduced.
Many
companies in neighboring countries are paying close attention to the
by-elections as they look to invest in the resource-rich Southeast Asian
nation. However, many are still holding off putting money in Burma due to
restrictions on capital flow, the lack of a developed stock exchange, an
untested legal environment and rudimentary infrastructure, according to a
recent article by Bloomberg news agency.
But
Burma has suddenly started attracting flocks of tourists—curious visitors and
people with good will who want to visit one of the poorest yet most enchanting
countries in the world. In future months, many flights to Burma will be fully
booked and hotels filled to the rafters.
This
week the Burmese government prepares to float its currency at around 800-820
kyat to the US dollar. Thein Sein is also preparing to travel to Japan in a bid
to lure investors and resume overseas assistance. He is expecting the European
Union (EU) to lift sanctions soon and the United States to similarly ease
restrictive measures.
The EU
has indicated it is looking at easing sanctions imposed on Burma in the
mid-1990s over the regime’s long history of human rights abuses, and foreign
investors are lining up to do business in the country. The body is holding a
meeting in April to review its policy of sanctions and it is expected that many
of these will be lifted with the retention of an arms embargo.
US
Secretary of State Hilary Clinton congratulated Burma in the wake of the
weekend elections. The latest report on Burma by the Congressional Research
Service indicated that US President Barack Obama could exercise his authority
to waive many of the sanctions currently in place.
Clinton
told reporters in Turkey on Sunday that the elections were “heartening” but
urged the government to improve transparency and deal with polling
irregularities.
“It is
too early to know what the progress of recent months means and whether it will
be sustained,” she said.
Indonesian
Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa welcomed the by-elections as “an opportunity
for Myanmar to make the reform process even more irreversible.”
Meanwhile,
Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario said they were a “vindication
of the global community that believed that Myanmar could pursue this
democratization track effectively.”
There
are several burning issues remaining to be resolved in Burma, however. The
protracted war in Kachin State, abuses toward ethnic minorities in border
regions and the remaining political prisoners still locked up for no just
reason.
While
some eager investors will immediately rush to embrace Burma, many more will
remain cautiously optimistic and hopeful for more positive changes to come. The
people of Burma who want to see change deserve a better future. Thein Sein, Suu
Kyi and all who voted in the by-elections are the real winners.
(Aung
Zaw is the editor and publisher of Chiang Mai-based Irrawaddy., where this
originally appeared)
Aung
Zaw,
The
Irrawaddy
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