Singapore - Immigration can mitigate rate at which citizen population ages: report

SINGAPORE: Singapore needs to continue attracting immigrants to slow down the decline and ageing of its citizen population, according to a paper released by the National Population and Talent Division.

It says that if the country's Total Fertility Rate remains the same, Singapore will need an immigration inflow of between 20,000 and 25,000 new citizens each year to keep the citizen population size stable.

This is one of the five population scenarios set out by the paper.

The scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but illustrations of the growth and change in population that will occur if certain assumptions about future demographics trends prevail over a projected period.

Singapore's TFR now stands at 1.2, well below the replacement rate of 2.1.

This year has been described as a "demographic turning point", when the first cohort of post-war Baby Boomers born between 1947 and 1965 start turning 65 years of age.

Without immigration, the paper says citizen deaths will exceed births in 13 years.

By 2025, the population will also start to age and shrink, with the median age being 45 - up from the current 39 years.

The citizen workforce will also start to shrink with fewer working-age citizens supporting each elderly citizen.

The paper projects that the trend will be mitigated somewhat with immigration.

It says immigration will help to slow down the decline in the pool of working-age citizens and slow down the rate of ageing among the population.

Taking in 20,000-25,000 new citizens each year will also bump up the citizen old-age support ratio slightly from 2.1 to 2.4 working citizens for every elderly citizen, in 2030.

The paper will form the basis of discussions among focus groups and the public for a White Paper to be released by the National Population and Talent Division by the end of the year.

The White Paper will set out issues important to Singaporeans and strategies for a sustainable population. It will cover things like land use and infrastructure planning.

The public consultation for this is expected to start in the middle of the year.

- CNA/cc

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