Although use of the internet has been
credited with helping spur democratic revolutions in the Arab world and
elsewhere, a new multinational study suggests the internet is most likely to
play a role only in specific situations.
Researchers
at Ohio State University found that the internet spurs pro-democratic attitudes
most in countries that already have introduced some reforms in that direction.
"Instead
of the internet promoting fundamental political change, it seems to reinforce
political change in countries that already have at least some level of
democratic freedoms," said Erik Nisbet, lead author of the study and
assistant professor of communication at Ohio State University.
"Internet
use is a less effective means to mobilize citizens for democracy in extremely
authoritarian countries."
In
addition, demand for democracy is highest in a country when more people are
connected to the internet and, most importantly, when they spend more time
online.
"Internet
penetration in a country matters in terms of how much people want democratic
reforms, but it is even more important that people are spending greater amounts
of time on the internet and that they are connected to other people in their
community," said Elizabeth Stoycheff, a co-author of the study and
doctoral student in communication at Ohio State.
Nisbet
and Stoycheff conducted the study with Katy Pearce of the University of
Washington. Their study appears in the April 2012 issue of the Journal of
Communication, a special issue dedicated to social media and political change.
The
researchers analyzed previously collected data on 28 countries in sub-Saharan
Africa and Asia. This included surveys of 37,549 people who participated in the
2008 Afrobarometer and 2006-2008 Asian Barometer surveys. Included were
questions that evaluated how much the citizens in each country demanded
democracy and their frequency of internet use.
In
addition, the researchers looked at country-level data that measured how
democratic each country was, and their levels of internet penetration,
international bandwidth per internet user and other sociodemographic factors.
The
results suggest that the internet is most likely to play a role in
democratization in countries that have a moderate to high internet penetration
and that have at least a partly democratic political regime.
In
countries ruled by authoritarian regimes, people may have access to the
internet, but the rulers may control the content available, how users may
interact with each other, and whether they may get information from outside
their own country, Stoycheff said.
"The
internet's effect on citizen demand for democracy is somewhat contingent on
both the technological context and the political context," Stoycheff said.
Based
on the results of the study, Nisbet said there are some countries that
currently appear to have the right political and technological mix for the
internet to play a role in social and political change. Those countries include
Kenya, Senegal, Uganda, Singapore and Zambia.
But
countries in the survey that are run by highly authoritarian regimes, such as
Vietnam and Zimbabwe, are not likely to see democracy flourishing anytime soon,
regardless of use of the internet, the findings suggest.
Other
countries, like Mozambique and Tanzania, are partly free but have a low citizen
demand for democracy and little internet penetration, Nisbet said. But if
internet use grows in these countries, it has the potential to encourage people
there to challenge their autocratic regimes.
"Our
results suggest that the internet can't plant the seed of democracy in a
country," Nisbet said. "However, the internet may help democracy
flourish if it has already started to grow."
Source:
Ohio State University
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