Beijing has handled the regional confrontation
well
The
standoff between China and the Philippines over Huangyan Island, or Scarborough
Shoal, has dragged on for weeks. But, thankfully, both sides have toned down
their rhetoric in recent days, suggesting that the worst is over. We’ve stepped
back from the brink of hostilities.
That
tensions have eased is due largely to Beijing’s restraint. The two countries
are vastly mismatched. If China had opted to press its advantage with threats
and even go to war to defend its sovereignty, the result would almost certainly
be victory. But Beijing did not take the tit-for-tat route.
Rather,
in the face of Philippine warmongering, China’s response has been to reiterate
its determination to defend its territorial integrity while engaging in
diplomacy to resolve the crisis. Even when repeated Philippine provocations
have sparked calls at home for retaliation, the government has not overreacted.
Instead, it calmed things down through diplomatic, political and economic
means.
The
Philippines triggered the crisis by deploying warships to harass Chinese
fishing boats in Chinese waters. This put the Philippines on the offensive and
China on the defensive, in sharp contrast with their global influence. The
incongruity has rankled some at home who saw the government as being too weak.
Even now, there are calls within China for Beijing to go to war.
And
what of the Philippines? Actions by its leadership suggest it, too, wants war.
By making an issue of damaged vessels and some casualties, the Philippines has
tried to create the impression that it was being bullied by a strong country.
It wants to win international sympathy, stake out the moral high ground and
gain political leverage in any resolution of the South China Sea disputes. This
is a commonplace strategy in international politics.
A
reflection on the conflict provides some insights into South China Sea issues.
First,
the contesting territorial claims are complex, involving mainland China,
Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Brunei. Admittedly,
Beijing has not been able to exercise effective jurisdiction over some of the
islands it claims. And when the government announced its annual two-and-a-half
month fishing ban in the waters from May 16, Vietnam made it known it would not
abide by it.
China’s
long-term challenge is to prevent the piecemeal loss of its territories in the
region. Indeed, these disputes may present the biggest test of Beijing’s will
to peaceful development. Its handling of any flare-ups must remain rational.
Second,
China must lead the forging of a new security order in the South China Sea. The
region has a scattering of islands and, in geopolitical terms, it’s not unlike
the Balkans. One of key strategic tasks for China in the 21st century is how to
prevent the “Balkanisation” of the South China Sea. China’s sovereignty over
its rightful territories should not be disputed. As the region’s biggest
country, it should lead by offering constructive solutions in the resolution of
disputes.
It must
also be patient. A new security order can’t be formed overnight; when needed,
China must let time take its course.
Third,
by resolving conflicts, China will create for itself an image befitting its
status as a major power. The government has made clear that its core concerns
in the South China Sea are Chinese sovereignty over the Spratly Islands and the
marking of boundaries in certain parts of the sea. Neither China nor any other
nation has laid claim to the whole South China Sea.
Peace
and stability are crucial in a region that also serves as important
international sea lanes. Beijing recognises this. It must balance its interests
as a sovereign state with the common good of freedom of navigation in the sea.
To this
end, the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea serves
Beijing’s interests. In the declaration, China and the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations pledge to resolve territorial and jurisdictional disputes “by
peaceful means, without resorting to the threat or use of force.”
China’s
conduct in the Huangyan Islands dispute has been exemplary. Its insistence on
direct negotiations and consultations shows it wants to avoid the mistakes made
in the past by rising powers. China, the region’s military power, did not try
to bully the Philippines. Instead, it is seeking to turn its hard power into
soft power.
Fourth,
no quarrel should disrupt China’s co-operation with ASEAN (Association of
SouthEast Asian Nations) countries. Beijing can, however, respond firmly to
unreasonable provocations, including by inflicting appropriate economic pain.
Sino-ASEAN
co-operation did not come easily. Today, the trade relationship is growing so
fast that ASEAN is expected to be China’s biggest trade partner by 2015. Mutual
economic dependence won’t make territorial disputes disappear, but a stronger
economic relationship will help to reduce conflict over those disputes.
We can
expect more rows to erupt in the course of forging a new security order. Faced
with provocation, Beijing must stay calm and think of the big picture of its
long-term development. The next five to 10 years could see conflicts intensify
as China’s neighbors race to consolidate their own positions. This calls for
wisdom and patience, not only from Chinese leaders, but also the Chinese
people. We must keep a clear head.
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