REGION
AT RISK: What began as a territorial
dispute may escalate into something more devastating
IT is
lamentable, to say the least, that while Malaysians have had their appetite for
sensational news sated in the course of the past few weeks, most of us have
been unaware of developments closer to our shores.
Over
the past few days, the political temperature in the region has been raised
somewhat by a string of unexpected events. Firstly, the arrival of the American
nuclear submarine USS North Carolina to Subic Bay, and secondly the despatch of
five Chinese naval vessels (including two destroyers and two frigates, no less)
to the South China Sea.
This
has all been part of the escalation of tension that resulted from the conflict
over claims on the Scarborough Shoal by both China and the Philippines, and
there is now the real concern that what began as a dispute over claims may well
escalate into something hotter and more devastating for the region.
The
root of it is the competing claims between the Philippines and China over the
area which both insist belong to them. Understandably, Filipinos feel that if
any country can claim the shoal it is them, for even a cursory glance at any
map will show that the area is evidently closer to the Philippines.
China,
on the other hand, claims that it possesses historical evidence that Chinese
fishing vessels have been fishing in the area for hundreds of years. Now that
the USS North Carolina has materialised out of nowhere, security analysts are
rightly alarmed that this may well spark off a major conflict that threatens to
drag the rest of Asean into the fray.
For the
benefit of Malaysians who are not familiar with the issues at hand, I would
refer to the work done by Chinese strategic analysts like Li Mingjiang, who
have written extensively -- and objectively -- on this thorny issue.
We
labour under the mistaken impression that China is a homogenous country that
thinks in a singular manner when addressing matters related to its claims to
sovereignty, and we could not be more wrong. China is, in fact, an extremely
complex country and before we jump the gun and make such bold claims we need to
take into account several salient factors.
Firstly,
we need to remember that over the past few decades China has experienced a
steady decentralisation of power, where the central government installed in
Beijing does not always have total power over local governments.
Looking
at the Scarborough Shoal dispute it should be noted that the so-called
aggressors are mainly Chinese fishing boats. (And not military vessels from the
Peoples' Liberation Army naval forces, PLAN.)
Why?
The reason lies in the fact that the local governments of provinces like
Guandong and Hainan have been told to increase productivity to add to the
state's coffers, and in the cases of Guangdong and Hainan it also means
increasing the yield of fishing.
We need
to remember that the South China Sea is indeed rich with fish. It accounts for
10 per cent of the world's annual fisheries output, and it is not surprising
that when the local authorities of Guangdong and Hainan are expected to exceed
their annual contributions, they will invariably encourage their fishermen to
fish further from Chinese coastal waters.
Note
that here I am not offering an excuse for Chinese fishing boats fishing close
to the Philippines, but am trying to remind us that here we see the dynamics of
local, as opposed to central, politics at work.
Secondly,
it is assumed that any Chinese move into the South China Sea is motivated by
the search for oil and gas. This is again not true. China’s oil companies seem
reluctant to invest heavy capital such as offshore oil rigs in areas where
there is no guarantee that their navy will protect them. Again, we need to go
back to the basics: this is a fish war, and not oil or gas.
Thirdly,
we need to also understand that in both the Philippines and China there is the
considered opinion of state officials and the less considered opinion of the
public. Sadly in both instances, the mass hysteria and anger unleashed by some
(though not all politicians) has opened the way for aggressive mass nationalism
in the most jingoistic of terms.
Talk of
“national rights and sovereignty” may win some politicians votes, but it also
inflames public anger and raises the tempers of millions. Once that has gotten
out of control, both Beijing and Manila will be forced to take steps that they
may regret in the future.
As an
analyst who works on political violence, I am alarmed by these developments
because I have encountered similar ones that got out of control. China has
fought bruising battles at sea in the 1970s and 1980s with Vietnam, which took
years to repair afterwards. Furthermore in the current climate of China-phobia,
its policymakers recognise that it cannot afford to appear in the light of an
aggressor.
A
belligerent China will only send some Asean countries into the arms of the
West, seeking assurance from superpowers like America. This would be unhealthy
as the South China Sea has to be seen as a contested area between Southeast
Asia and China, and nobody else.
Southeast
Asian governments on the other hand have to realise that the simple fact is
that Asean will have to deal with a China that will be a major contributor to
FDI entering the region and which will be a vital economic partner for us.
Since
1967, Asean has managed, with notable success, to deal with the internal disputes
within the region. Perhaps the time has come to use this form of negotiation
and compromise — dubbed the Asean Way — to deal with China, too. In any case,
angry rhetoric and flag-burning will get us nowhere, but already add more
tension to an already overheated situation.
Farish
A.Noor
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