SINGAPORE,
May 25 (Bernama) -- Export growth is
expected to dip across Association of South-East Asian Nations (Asean) in the
next quarter but the region remains resilient, according to a new ICAEW report.
The
report, 'Economic Insight: South-East Asia', said rising oil prices, inflationary
pressures, a Chinese property bubble and the European sovereign debt crisis
were all taking their toll, but the economies continued to grow, albeit at a
slower pace.
The
report is produced by The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR),
ICAEW's partner and forecaster.
The
report undertakes a quarterly review of South-East Asian economies, with a
focus on the six largest countries; Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
The
report said Malaysia, whose export market has traditionally relied more than
its neighbours on Western demand, has been impeded by the sovereign debt crisis
but a steady stream of foreign direct investments had mitigated this impact to
achieve 5.1 per cent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) last year.
"Strong
industrial production in early 2012 continues to keep both unemployment and a
decline in living standards at bay.
"Moreover
a pick-up in the semiconductor industry, coupled with escalating commodity
prices, should push GDP growth to 5.2 per cent this year and further to 5.6 per
cent in 2014," it said.
Charles
Davis, ICAEW economic advisor and Cebr's head of macroeconomics, said Malaysia
was one of the few regional net oil exporters, selling 8.4 per cent of its
annual output, and had an export surplus of around 2.5 per cent, after
purchasing was taken into consideration.
He said
Malaysia therefore stood to gain from rising oil prices. However, he believed
that inflation was set to rise further across the region.
"We
are now seeing the rise of a newly-affluent Asian consumers, with a higher
disposable income and the capacity to afford more and better goods.
"Their
growing demands have exceeded what the increasingly scarce amounts of energy
and depleting surplus of Chinese labour could previously supply, thus exerting
inflationary pressures worldwide.
"While
inflation has fallen back in Malaysia through 2012 so far inflationary risks
remain, and these will remain on Bank Negara Malaysia's radar," he said.
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