When Thailand serves as the new coordinating
country for Asean-China relations beginning July, expectations are extremely
high that the country, which has an intimate tie with China, would be able to
keep peace and stability through managing competing claims in the troubled
South China Sea.
During
the past three years (2009-2012) under the Philippine's coordinating role, the
tension in the mineral-rich sea has intensified raising serious concerns within
Asean and the international community of possibility of armed conflicts. To
prepare for their future engagement both within the bilateral and Asean context,
Thailand and China have been quick to get together and positively respond to
each other's mutual security goals as if they were a long-standing alliance.
The
high-power visit from all branches of Thai military top brasses to China
recently - first in 15 years - was a show-case sending a strong message to the
US and the region, Cambodia in particular, that the Thai-China defense and
security ties are rock solid and must not be the subjection of speculations. In
weeks and months, the two countries have to demonstrate in tangible ways
delivering on their pledges and widen cooperation to maintain their special
strategic partnership, otherwise it could be a marriage of convenience. Their
policies and action - imagine or real - from now on would have a far-reaching
ramification on the delicate Asean-China and intra-Asean relations.
During
the four-eye meeting in Beijing between Chinese Defence Minister Gen Liang
Guanglie with the Thai counterpart, ACM Sukhupol Suwannathat, Army Commander in
Chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha was tagged along to his delegation. The topic they
discussed was two sensitive issues focusing on the South China Sea and the
dispute between Thailand and Cambodia over the 12th Century Hindu Temple, known
as Khao Praviharn/Phrea-Vihear. Both countries were very firm on each other's
support on their respective issues.
Given
the high tension over South China Sea, especially the three-week stand-off
between China and the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoals or Huangyan as
the Chinese called it, Beijing has tried hard to the non-claimant Asean members
to distant them from the Philippine's assertiveness. Manila has been very
frustrated with the lack of Asean. As the Asean-China coordinator, Thailand is
naturally the main focus of China's diplomatic offensive.
While
the Thai military leaders strongly backed China over a wide range of bilateral
and regional issues, the Thai Foreign Ministry does not always see eyes to eyes
with their approach of across-the-board support as the country's foreign policy
has to take into account a myriad of factors and on a case by case basis when
decision is being made. With China and South China Sea, the implications are
huge and multidimensional. Undoubtedly, Thailand remains ambivalent on the
current the China-Philippine quagmire even after listening to the presentation
in Bangkok by the Chinese diplomats at the end of April. China reaffirmed its
sovereignty over the disputed island saying it has solid historical and legal
basis and is in line with international law. For the time being, the Thai
positions are rather simple: concerning parties in the dispute should settle
their problems peacefully, working on the Regional Code of Conduct (COC) in the
South China Sea and most of all, Asean can facilitate the dialogue leading to
eventual solutions.
China
is very anxious to get Thailand on board as soon as possible for two reasons.
First right off is to ensure that China is involved in the COC drafting with
Asean as soon as possible. The Asean senior officials will meet again next week
for the fifth time in Bandung, Indonesia to discuss a proposal by the
Philippines to establish a Joint Cooperation Area as well as the principles and
nature of dispute settlement mechanism before the Asean ministers adopt it in
July. At the last meeting in Phnom Penh, Asean could not agree on these key COC
elements. Truth be told, some Asean members want to bring in China, which
expressed the interest to take part since last November, so that Asean and
China could agree and eventually adopt the COC without delay. Both sides wasted
ten years before agreeing on the guidelines last year leading to the present
stage. However, the Philippines and Vietnam, the two strong-will claimants,
want Asean to complete all "the possible desirable elements" before
any meeting with the Chinese counterparts.
Secondly,
China also understands well that the Thai military have little influence over
the conduct of diplomacy, especially within the Asean context, except when they
are dealing with the national security issues. As evident in the ongoing
Thai-Cambodia, the military leaders have not complied fully with the decisions
proposed by the Foreign Ministry. The failure to deploy the Indonesian
Observer's Team along the volatile border is a good illustration. It is
imperative for China to garner the military's support at the very beginning.
One caveat is in order - the strong China-Thai security ties could be
problematic when they are placed in the context of bilateral conflict with
Cambodia coupling with the overlapping Asean roles of the two conflicting
parties.
Least
we forget the current excellent relations China enjoys with Cambodia after
Prime Minister Hun Sen's policy of rapprochement at the end of 1999. Hun Sen
has single-handedly crafted the Cambodia-China relations and transforms China
into the country's No. 1 friend within a mere decade, to fit into dual new
strategic profiles he drew up for his country - a young medium-size tiger with
the region's fastest economic growth and a pro-active Asean member. The first
objective could easily be attained with the ongoing China's generous assistance
and long-term support including influx of new investment. From 1994-2011, China
invested US$8.8 billion in Cambodia, making it the largest investor as well as
the biggest aid donor to the tune of US$2.1 billion since 1992. At the moment,
Cambodia also has the region's largest presence of Chinese immigrants, mainly
businessmen, of nearly one million out of the 14-million local populations. For
the latter's goal, Hun Sen has already made a strong personnel imprint on the
Asean agenda judging from the April summit. When the world's leaders, including
the US, China, Russia, attend the Seventh East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh in
November under his tutelage, the region's longest reigning leader will display
his diplomatic finesse in boosting the Asean profile.
But Hun
Sen's outspokenness and the Thai-Cambodian conflict can get into the way,
especially after the International Court of Justice in Hague comes up with a
verdict later this year as it would affect the ground situation at the troubled
border. The court's outcome would swiftly put to test the triangular
China-Thailand-Cambodia relations. When China's two best Asean friends went to
war using Chinese-made weapons, it could be a recipe for disaster. At the
four-eye meeting with the Chinese leaders, Thailand took great pains in
explaining in detail how the Chinese made BM-21 - the multiple rocket launchers
- were used extensively and discriminately causing damages to civilian lives
and properties across the border. Thailand relies on the US-made weapon systems
which were equally lethal and effective. Unlike the Thai-China security ties,
the Thai-US alliance lacks the concurrent interests even with the recent
announced US pivot to Asia.
The
question frequently asked today: Will Cambodia as the Asean chair and Thailand
as the Asean-China coordinator together be able to contain the South China Sea
debacle? It seems that the answer will depend on China's reaction, in
particular its ability to convince its two non-claimant Asean friends to settle
conflict and improve relations to prevent any spilling effect on China's
greater stakes.
Kavi
Chongkittavorn
The
Nation
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