It is a race between ever-increasing number
of people and the ability of the economy to create jobs. The economy loses the
race all the time.’
PRESIDENT
Aquino is now being blamed for his failure to create enough jobs. The
accusation is not exactly false, as it has not been false for all past
presidents, except probably during the administrations in the commonwealth
period up to the presidencies of Elpidio Quirino and Ramon Magsaysay.
It is
not that they were more capable than their successors. It is simply the fact
that in their time, fewer people needed jobs. Farmers used antiquated methods
but by and large were able to feed their families.
Life
was easy. My guess is that in those times the population was probably about 30
million, maybe even less. The soil was richer. The oceans, seas and rivers were
clean for marine life to thrive and be sources of livelihood.
As the
years wore on, the population increased unceasingly. There was so much pressure
on everything. On food, natural resources, on land, forests, rivers and seas,
even wild life.
The day
came when the birth rate grew to almost 2 percent a year. Because the base
became much larger, this easily translated to an estimated two million babies a
year. Eighteen years from this year, two million people of age and willing to
work will join the labor force.
In 15
years the total population may be expected to be about 120 million.
The
solution to the growing unemployment problem, according to the economists,
particularly the arm-chair variety, is for the country to attract more local
and foreign investments, particularly in manufacturing which is more
labor-intensive than other businesses.
The
equation is the economy’s ability to absorb people willing to work and jobs
available. No amount of investment will ever be big enough to take in the
growing number of unemployed. But it is true that larger amounts of investments
do help a lot but not enough to create a full employment or near-full
employment economy.
My
favorite example is Indonesia. It has a very large territory. It has the
sweetest and most expensive crude in the world. It also happens to have the
biggest population in the Asean region.
Unemployment
in Indonesia is second highest in the region after the Philippines. Two things
are common. The two members of the Asean have the most number of people. Two
things are unlike each other. Indonesia is the largest territory. The
Philippines is one of the smallest about the land area of Cambodia.
The
pressure of an ever-increasing population and the palpable neglect of
agriculture by the government resulted in two unwanted situations. First and
most threatening, the country is fast running out of food particularly the
staple cereal, rice.
Second,
the shortage of food where there should be plenty –in the farms – have forced
rural folks to the urban areas in search of jobs to buy food. If there is no
job to find, they can always scavenge for scraps in the garbage heap. It that
does produce enough for a big brood, the next option is begging. That “job”
will not produce enough food either.
The
easy way is to pick pockets, push drugs, steal or join a robbery gang. The
young women in their early teens, in extreme cases with their mothers’ consent,
start working in naughty joints where they learn to smoke, drink and eventually
take to drugs.
These
people are what they are because the economy cannot give them enough jobs.
There are not enough investments that create the jobs. It is a race between
ever-increasing number of people and the ability of the economy to create jobs.
The economy loses the race all the time.
There
are already seven urban centers threatened with high population density. In my
barrio in Lipa there are strangers – many from the Bicol region, some from
Quezon Province –who beg small people who have unoccupied lots for permission
to build shanties. They work and work hard. They also multiply fast, in fact
sprout like mushrooms.
The
lesson seems to be clear. No matter what size of investment is poured into the
economy the unemployment rate will continue to go up. Hunger will stalk the
land. Criminality will rise. Social problems will be unmanageable.
If the
state has the balls to disobey the order or dogma of the Roman Catholic Church
in implementing an information program on family health in relation to
fertility and birth rate, the effects will be felt in about 15 years. By that
time, the traffic situation will be hell, food will run out. Unemployment may
well be at its highest peak. In extreme situation food riots may be possible.
The Philippines will be one hell of a country to live in.
All
because state leaders are scared of the Catholic Church to wage an information
campaign on maternal health.
AMADO
P. MACASAET
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