Amid growing tensions between China and its
neighbors, the Obama administration has embarked on a quiet but determined
mission behind the scenes to push China and the countries of Southeast Asia to
resolve their disputes in the South China Sea.
The
escalating dispute between China and several of its neighbors over the
territories of the South China Sea, which contain extensive mineral and fishing
deposits, threatens to boil over into a hot conflict. China and the Philippines
already had a close call last month when both countries
dispatched military ships to the area known as the Scarborough
Shoal and China has already started deep
sea mining operations in the disputed Paracel Islands.
The
United States and the Philippines signed a mutual defense treaty in 1951 and
Filipino officials have said that
they expect the U.S. to come to their country's defense in the case of open
conflict. The Obama administration has deliberately avoided specifying
America's obligations under the treaty. But the issue is sure to be front and
center when Philippines President Benigno Aquinomeets President Barack
Obama on Friday in Washington.
The
United States is not a party to the South China Sea disputes but has an
interest in preserving freedom of trade and navigation in its waters.
Washington also wants to urge the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) to defend its rights and stand up to Beijing on the issue. The case is
a test of China's commitment to responsibly solve problems in multilateral ways
as well as a test of ASEAN's ability to work together to further its own
interests.
In
2010, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton began an increasingly public U.S. effort to
play a role in the resolution of the South China Sea disputes. The latest
public display of that effort came at last weekend's 2012 IISS Shangri-la Security Dialogue,
when Defense Secretary Leon Panetta outlined the U.S. position
on how tensions in the South China Sea should be resolved.
"The
United States believes it is critical for regional institutions to develop
mutually agreed rules of the road that protect the rights of all nations to
free and open access to the seas. We support the efforts of the ASEAN countries
and China to develop a binding code of conduct that would create a rules-based
framework for regulating the conduct of parties in the South China Sea,
including the prevention and management of disputes," he
said. "On that note, we are obviously paying close attention to the
situation in Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. The U.S. position is
clear and consistent: we call for restraint and for diplomatic resolution; we
oppose provocation; we oppose coercion; and we oppose the use of force. We do
not take sides when it comes to competing territorial claims, but we do want
this dispute resolved peacefully and in a manner consistent with international
law."
China
signed onto a Declaration on Conduct of Parties (DOC) for the South China Sea
in 2002, but that is a non-binding agreement meant to pave the way for more
concrete Code of Conduct (COC). The negotiations on the COC are stalled. In response to a
question in Singapore, Panetta gave even more detailed guidance
on what the U.S. wants to see in the COC.
"Pursuant
to developing that code of conduct it is very important that the ASEAN nations
develop a dispute forum that can allow for the resolution of these disputes. It
is not enough just simply to develop a code of conduct. You've got to back it
up with the ability to negotiate and resolve disputes in this area.
And
that is what the United States is encouraging," he said. "It's pretty
clear that every time these events take place that we always come very close to
having a confrontation, and that's dangerous for all countries in this
region."
Administration
sources said those words were carefully chosen and indicate an increasing
frustration throughout the U.S. government with the lack of progress on the
COC. The "dispute forum" Penetta referred to would not seek to solve
the overall territorial disputes, officials said, but would rather be used to
settle immediate, smaller disputes such as over fishing and mineral rights, as
to avoid open conflict.
Meanwhile,
the administration has been increasing its activity behind the scenes. Two U.S.
officials confirmed to The Cable that Assistant Secretary of
State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell traveled
to Cambodia last week and pressed regional countries on the issue on the
sidelines of the ASEAN defense ministers' meeting.
Campbell
distributed what officials called a "non-paper," setting out broad
guidelines for the COC that Washington feels are constructive. The
"non-paper" was not an official U.S. government document, the
officials emphasized, as the United States is not a party to the disputes and
therefore doesn't want to be seen as directly intervening.
"The
lack of progress between ASEAN and China in negotiating the COC is driving the
U.S. to undertake a more active role. The Obama administration is not
seeking to insert itself in the territorial and sovereignty disputes; rather it
is seeking to inject momentum into a stalled process," said Bonnie
Glaser, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
in Washington.
She
said the lack of progress is due in part to the inability of the ASEAN nations
to agree on the contents of the COC and whether it should be drafted first
among ASEAN and presented to China for signature or negotiated jointly with
Beijing. China insists that it be included in the drafting of the document
and undoubtedly hopes to water down the language, Glaser said.
"ASEAN
is hopelessly divided on this issue and it is helpful for the U.S. to nudge the
process in the right direction. Ultimately, however, it is up to ASEAN
members to decide what they want to include in the COC," said Glaser.
We're
told by inside sources that the quiet U.S. efforts regarding the South China
Sea go beyond just suggesting guidance for the COC. The State Department is
asking both China and the Philippines to keep military and government ships
outside of the most sensitive areas, to take the risk of a military
confrontation out of the equation.
The
State Departments also communicating that it would be best if neither side took
any steps to advance their sovereignty claims while negotiations continue, such
as building permanent structures on contested islands. The State Department is
also urging both sides to take environmental considerations into account when
dealing with fishing and mining operations, which should be in the interest of
all parties.
"We
want to make sure that the threat of force or coercion does not serve as a tool
for claimants," a senior administration official said. "The U.S. has
sought to multilateralize the discussions around these issues... because we believe
that's the best way to ensure a fair process."
Involvement
in the issue risks upsetting Washington's relationship with Beijing, as the
Chinese government is opposed to any U.S. action on the South China Sea issue. A front page commentary in
the People's Daily this week says that China's disputes with
its neighbors related to the South China Sea "have nothing to do with the
U.S."
"Issues
that arise from the South China Sea need to be solved through negotiations by
China with the claimants," states the commentary. "Intervention by
external sources will only make existing contradictions more complicated and
sharpen conflicts further, especially when a force of hegemony
intervenes."
But
many in Washington see the issue as crucial for establishing the precedent that
China must work through multilateral bodies to resolve regional disputes --
rather than trying to bully smaller countries in grossly uneven bilateral
confrontations.
"That
really means that the dispute is not going to be resolved unless it is resolved
coercively in an unequal way between this giant power and these small countries
that also have claims," Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) told The Cable in Singapore.
"What's happening now with these disputes is important in terms in terms
what the Chinese are saying to the rest of the world about what kind of great
power China will be."
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