Geopolitics and
geoeconomics in Southeast Asia are changing faster than ever across the whole
region, while the global importance of internal Southeast Asia affairs
continues to expand. The two issues of the South China Sea and the
proliferation of trade partnerships are at the center of the attention of
regional and global players.
What is Indonesia’s position with regard to these two
matters? How can we anticipate Indonesia’s response to developments in the
region? To what extent could, or should, Indonesia develop or strengthen its
position?
It is my opinion that Indonesia should be at the center
of contemporary geopolitics and geoeconomics in Southeast Asia, strengthening
its capacity and capability to act as a non-aligned stabilizer and as a major,
if not the major, player throughout ASEAN.
Establishing and preserving economic stability, while
boosting economic development in the region is the primary role of ASEAN.
Indonesia as a nation, diplomatic power or economy, can and must be at the
heart of the drive toward these objectives. Such is the power of the Indonesian
economy that regional stability cannot be attained without us, and therefore
could be achieved with our national interests to the fore.
The South China Sea has become an important issue for
Indonesia because there are now so many territorial disputes between China and
ASEAN countries (the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei Darussalam). For
some time China and the Philippines have been playing a dangerous game of tit
for tat with their vessels in Scarborough shoal, which is claimed by both
parties as their territory. Both sides have deliberately raised the tension in
the area to the extent that China recently issued a warning to its citizens in
the Philippines. The Philippines has a commitment from the US to protect what
it considers to be Filipino territory, if attacked.
The tension in the South China Sea could easily become an
outright war, if not managed effectively.
Australia invited the US to deploy 2,500 marines in
Darwin, purportedly to respond to natural disasters in the region. It also has
the promise of US surveillance devices to be deployed in the Cocos Islands to
monitor activity in the South China Sea.
These developments have not gone unnoticed by China or
the members of ASEAN. The South China Sea looks likely to become yet another
theater for competition, posturing and saber rattling between China and the US.
Geographically, this is a wholly new area of geopolitical tensions and it is
our own backyard.
If the South China
Sea represents the new geopolitics, then the proliferation of economic
partnerships must surely epitomize the new geoeconomics of Southeast Asia.
ASEAN has expanded its economic cooperation with external counterparts through
free trade agreements (FTA) and other economic partnership agreements. Several
economic agreements are now signed, sealed and in process of delivery, with
such neighbors and near-neighbors, as China, India, Australia and New Zealand,
Japan and South Korea.
Individual member countries have also reached bilateral
economic arrangements, for example: EFTA-Singapore, China-Singapore and
Brunei-Japan.
The Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership
Agreement known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is emerging as an
important trade agreement in our region.
The TPP member countries are currently New Zealand,
Singapore, Brunei Darussalam and Chile. The US, Malaysia, Australia, Vietnam
and Japan have expressed interest in membership and negotiations to expand go
on apace.
While not yet a member of the partnership itself, the US
has declared its intention to persuade allies in Southeast Asia to join this
organization. Thus, the rapid expansion of trade agreements combined with US
promotion of TPP characterizes the new geoeconomics of the area.
Like it or not, Indonesia’s position is at the center of
these developments. On the one hand, we are the biggest country in Southeast
Asia, with a strategic position in relation to China, the US, Australia, Japan
and South Korea.
On the other hand, Indonesia is caught in the middle of
the burgeoning rivalry between China and the US on the issues highlighted
above: economic and territorial muscle in the region.
Non-aligned and caught between the superpowers, Indonesia
is perfectly placed to be a stabilizing influence and honest broker between the
two. We have both opportunity and capacity to promote peace and security and
foster economic development.
With regard to the geopolitics of Southeast Asia, if
Indonesian influence is brought to bear, then perhaps China can be convinced to
respect the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) and the Code of Conduct in
the South China Sea? Indonesia, and perhaps only Indonesia, has the motive and
the opportunity to influence the Philippines and China and lessen the tension
in the South China Sea.
Indonesia could propose joint sovereignty of disputed sea
areas to China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei Darussalam with
the backing of the US and other ASEAN countries. If needs must, Indonesia could
impose and police such an arrangement.
Under our leadership, ASEAN and China can create a joint
security commission to monitor collective arrangements (e.g. maritime security
and energy cooperation) in the South China Sea.
With strong, impartial leadership, China, the Philippines,
and other concerned nations may work together to secure and develop the South
China Sea without the current atmosphere of fear, distrust and threats.
With regard to the geoeconomics of Southeast Asia,
Indonesia can empower ASEAN to reach a common position when responding to the
proliferation of economic partnerships in the region. Indonesia should remind
and influence other ASEAN countries to act collectively to strengthen FTAs that
exist with external counterparts and to empower the East Asia Summit (EAS) as a
basis for economic cooperation in East Asia.
The US, Australia and other regional players are members
of EAS. In other words, if the will were there, Indonesia could bring about a
collective effort of ASEAN, the US and other players to promote the EAS as an
axis of economic cooperation.
Beginda Pakpahan
The writer is a lecturer at the University of Indonesia
and a researcher with the University of Edinburgh, UK.
The Jakarta post
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